Roger Bootle articles



Article archive:


Articles: 2013

 * Let’s be thankful for the recovery, even if it is lopsided - Unbalanced economic growth is better than many people expected. We should celebrate it - 29th December 2013
 * We’ll live longer but we’ll need to adjust our lives to really prosper - Those born in the 1960s and 1970s are unlikely to enjoy the wealth of those, like Ab Fab’s Patsy and Edina, born a decade before - 23rd December 2013
 * More consumer spending doesn’t mean we have the wrong sort of recovery - Talk of a debt-fuelled surge in consumer spending is well wide of the mark - 16th December 2013
 * An informal cap on the pound is the only way to rebalance our economy - Whenever something goes wrong with the UK economy you can bet your bottom dollar that a misalignment of the pound is somehow connected with it, either as cause or effect, and sometimes both - 9th December 2013
 * Autumn Statement 2013: UK growth depends on things that are out of George Osborne's control - This was a responsible package from a Chancellor for whom the tide has turned - 5th December 2013
 * Scotland may prefer to go it alone, but the EU has lessons for countries that secede - The UK isn’t ideal by any means, but the quality of governance is better than in the EU - and devolution has recently allowed Scotland a good deal of freedom to go its own way on several issues - 2nd December 2013
 * No one wants Russia to implode but optimists have their work cut out - The Russian economy is in a parlous state and needs radical changes to the political regime - 25th November 2013
 * Forward guidance gives wiggle room to the Bank, but it’s a work in progress - By the time the unemployment rate hits 7pc, the Bank of England may have changed its tune - 18th November 2013
 * Reports of the survival of the eurozone may have been greatly exaggerated - Last week’s surprise interest rate cut by the European Central Bank was largely a response to the looming danger of deflation in the eurozone - 11th November 2013
 * 'Financial repression’ may stave off default, but the cost to savers will be high - Inflation will probably still be higher than the paltry interest rates available on many savings instruments – particularly after tax - 28th October 2013
 * It’s not yet the end of the world as we know it, but watch Japan’s debt grow - Japan has managed to muddle through, but it now looks as though it is close to a tipping point - 21st October 2013
 * US default threat will not go away, even if the can is kicked down the road - With a temporary increase to the debt ceiling, though, we risk going through this crisis all over again quite soon - 14th October 2013
 * Cutting prices to raise living standards is just a waste of energy - A right royal battle is beginning between our political leaders on the subject of squeezed living standards. But before the politicians leap in with their solutions, it would be as well to understand what has caused the squeeze - 7th October 2013
 * Beware complacency over a slow improvement in the housing market - Amid all the recent good news, there is one part of the economy which should give policymakers pause for thought – the housing market - 30th September 2013
 * Reasons to be cheerful about real strength of US recovery - After the German election result, thoughts will now readily turn to European policy and how the political out-turn might affect the feeble recovery in the eurozone. But once again, we need to keep a beady eye on events across the Atlantic - 23rd September 2013
 * Economy may well recover strongly, but it's too soon to put out the bunting - So the economy is recovering. At long last. But where has this recovery come from? And, allied to that, can we have confidence in it? - 16th September 2013
 * Higher education is in an expensive muddle with too many useless degrees - A long summer break has allowed me to reflect on some issues which, although extremely important, I somehow seem to miss in the hubbub of events and financial news - 9th September 2013
 * The Germans are walking tall in the eurozone, but just how rich are they? - As we know, the Germans always win – well almost always – in everything from penalty shoot-outs to export markets. And currently within Europe they are walking tall again, as their economy succeeds while others, most notably the French one, struggle - 5th August 2013
 * Inflation may have hit its peak, but goldbugs still have a reason to hold - Suddenly, inflation is back in the news. Last week, the UK figure edged up to 2.9pc. In fact, this was a bit less than expected and it looks as though the peak may have been reached - 22nd July 2013
 * Economic focus should shift from the BRICs to Africa’s emerging markets - Just as the green shoots of recovery are appearing in the UK, and positively sprouting upwards in the US, so it seems that the so-called BRIC economies are slowing - 15th July 2013
 * We can’t wave goodbye to the euro crisis just yet - Since last summer, the euro crisis has apparently abated. Optimists have believed that it has finally been laid to rest - 8th July 2013
 * Government fails to grasp the nettle of spending - Last week's Spending Review was desperately disappointing – but also highly informative. It reminded us how serious the problems are, and showed how feeble the Government is in addressing them - 3rd July 2013
 * We should welcome the first signs that markets are returning to normality - Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water - 24th June 2013
 * The pound must fall further if Britain is to have a lasting recovery - Recovery is in the air. Thank goodness. The question that is nagging me is whether it will be a healthy recovery or whether it will be more of the same old pattern of growth which, experience has taught us, flatters only to deceive - 17th June 2013
 * When the bond bubble finally bursts, a lot of investors will get hurt - The extent of distortion in the bond markets is quite remarkable - 10th June 2013
 * As safe as houses? There could be a high price to pay for creating a boom - Over the years that I have been writing for this newspaper no subject has brought forth more reaction from my readers than the housing market - 3rd June 2013
 * Wise for central banks to be flexible over stimulus steps, however investors react - To anyone observing the financial markets from the outside, the events of the last few weeks must seem baffling - 27th May 2013
 * France has been ignoring its problems, now the chickens are coming home to roost - It is too early to be sure that the UK economy is finally emerging from the doldrums but the early signs look promising - 20th May 2013
 * Look east and learn from the inventors of QE what will happen next - Japan is still the third largest economy in the world, and the economic resurgence planned by its prime minister, Shinzo Abe, would affect us all - 13th May 2013
 * Eurozone crisis deepens as German 'sado-monetarists' refuse to back QE - The countries of the eurozone are running into austerity fatigue and no wonder, with unemployment at catastrophic levels, except in Germany. What scope is there to take action to boost the economy? - 6th May 2013
 * Do not be deceived by full cinemas, the popcorn effect strikes us all - As we now know, in the first quarter of this year, the UK economy defied the gloomsters and expanded by 0.3pc. So everything’s all right, then? Not quite - 29th April 2013
 * Focus on commodity prices, not on the sideshow of GDP figures - Thursday will see publication of an economic indicator of unusual significance, at least for political comment and popular discussion – the GDP figures for the first quarter of this year - 22nd April 2013
 * Thatcher set the ball rolling, it is up to others to ensure legacy is not wasted - Fulsome tributes have been paid to Baroness Thatcher. One of the strongest was the assertion that she saved Britain from economic collapse or, at the very least, continued economic decline. Is this justified? - 15th April 2013
 * The glass is half-full, we just can't see it - At this time of year I try to offer my readers a well deserved respite from the usual diet of gloom and doom that I dish out every Monday, a glimmer of hope in keeping with the coming of spring - 1st April 2013
 * Cyprus crisis is at the heart of fundamental problems in the eurozone - According to the well-known quotation from Virgil, you should beware Greeks bearing gifts. But what about Greeks asking for them? - 25th March 2013
 * A do nothing, blame everyone else Budget - Has the Chancellor been reading Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire? - 22nd March 2013
 * Whatever Osborne says, there are five ways to fuel the economy - Who would want to be Chancellor this week? In my 30 odd years of analysing budgets I have never known a situation as grim as this - 18th March 2013
 * Our economic strategy is heading in the Japanese direction - The Prime Minster has warned us not to expect much from the coming Budget - 11th March 2013
 * Outbreak of hyperactivity at the Bank of England shows Mark Carney era is active - A few years ago, Mervyn King revealed an ambition to make monetary policy boring. Some hope - 4th March 2013
 * The inflation option looms larger, either by stealth or through design - Soon after the financial crisis began, a friend confidently proclaimed that the only way out of the mess that it had created would be inflation - 18th February 2013
 * We need a strategy we can believe in, not Mr Micawber’s blind optimism - A change in policy is in the air. About time too. Not only was the last quarterly GDP growth figure negative but the next one may also be pretty weak - 11th February 2013
 * Keeping this rickety union together calls for more than political wil - The strength of the stockmarket this year has been partly due to relief that the euro crisis is apparently over. Yet the market is misguided - 4th February 2013
 * The Single Market is just one ingredient to be put into the pot - "It is vital that we remain in the Single Market”, politicians of all hues regularly intone, like a mantra - 28th January 2013
 * GDP for Q4? Be prepared to get that sinking feeling on Friday - Beware of paying too much attention to one period's figures. That is usually good advice - 22nd January 2013
 * GDP for Q4? Be prepared to get that sinking feeling on Friday - Beware of paying too much attention to one period's figures. That is usually good advice - 21st January 2013
 * The dangers of outside interventions in divorce discussions - Last week, a senior US official made an attempt to influence the growing debate in Britain about our EU membership - 14th January 2013
 * Eurozone left in lurch as US 'can-do’ spirit spurs economy towards revival - So the Americans did it. They avoided the fiscal cliff – right at the 11th hour, much as many of us suspected they would. Not that America’s travails are over. Quite the opposite. The fiscal problem has been merely deferred, not cured - 7th January 2013
 * I want to turn bullish, but I can’t see where growth is going to come from - At the end of last year, I surprised you with two bursts of optimism. I hope that you appreciated them. Well, I hope that you noticed them, anyway. For, with those abnormalities behind me, I am now reverting to type – with a vengeance - 2nd January 2013



Articles: 2012

 * If we play our cards right we could weave a new future for ourselves - For this, my last column of the year, I am in optimistic mode - 17th December 2012
 * Euro’s effects on our woes haven’t died, they’re just resting - Whether it will be Italy, Spain, Portugal or Greece, one of these will shortly re-ignite fears for the euro’s survival - 10th December 2012
 * Autumn Statement 2012: man cannot live by deficit reduction alone - No major surprises; just more of the same - tinkering, gestures, excuses and hope - 6th December 2012
 * The world's commodity supercycle is far from dead - Great resource booms usually end abruptly, catching almost everybody by surprise - 3rd December 2012
 * OBR's supply pessimism could be the ruin of this government - Next week, the Chancellor will pronounce on how far his fiscal rules need to be redefined - or reinforced with more fiscal tightening. How much slack there is in the economy will be critical. If there is a good deal then, as soon as the economy recovers, much of the fiscal problem will disappear like melting snow - 26th November 2012
 * Getting the right measure of gloom and doom - The Bank of England’s pronouncements last week about the economy were some of the gloomiest it has uttered in recent times. Is it right to be so downbeat? - 19th November 2012
 * We've been on the back foot with the EU ever since we joined - Can we agree to lead separate lives – or must it be divorce? - 12th November 2012
 * Crucial to the US election? It's the Chinese economy, stupid - As an economic forecaster, I am frequently asked what I am assuming about Tuesday's US Presidential election - 5th November 2012
 * Tightening fiscal policy on this scale will send the US into recession - "It’s the economy, stupid.” With those words uttered in 1992, James Carville, an adviser to Bill Clinton, suggested that American elections turned on the state of the economy - 28th October 2012
 * Let's not take the road to Harare to get recovery on track - This week’s subject is what Sherlock Holmes would have deemed a three-pipe problem – alternative ways of increasing the money supply to boost the economy - 21st October 2012
 * The origins of our current woes - and the way to escape from them - Why are we here, in the worst recession for over 70 years? Unless we uncover the answer we won’t be able to address the more important issue of when and how we can hope to come out of it - 15th October 2012
 * If Germany were to leave the euro, it would be better off - Another week, another conference about the euro. This time it was in Singapore. Nevertheless, it was Germany that was uppermost in my mind, not least because several Singaporeans asked me why Germany doesn't leave the euro - 8th October 2012
 * Sensible for Germany to leave euro, but they're not ready - It is beginning to dawn on the Germans that if the euro holds together they’ll have to stump up more and more money - 1st October 2012
 * UK economy: don't expect any green shoots just yet - According to former Prime Minister Sir John Major, you can detect the first green shoots of economic recovery. Can you? - 24th September 2012
 * We can have affordable housing if we have the political will to change - Following the Government’s recent measures to stimulate the building trade, controversy has been bubbling about them, and about what more can be done. I am decidedly an activist - 17th September 2012
 * The euro crisis is not over and is about to get interesting - Supposedly the euro crisis is all over. The mighty ECB has spoken. I have received triumphalist suggestions from bastions of euro-fanaticism that I should now capitulate - 10th September 2012
 * Whatever the chosen emergency measures, confidence must come first - I have returned from holiday to find that, aside from the wonderful boost from the Olympics, the public mood seems to be darker. Understandably - 3rd September 2012
 * Euro elites should say if they could ever view single currency as a failure - What conditions could convince the euro elites that the euro was a failure and if they can imagine such conditions, then what stops them from concluding that they exist now? - 6th August 2012
 * A dose of inflation could start to look like a cure for our current ills - We all need some respite from the euro crisis – well I certainly do – but there is one issue which continues to reverberate throughout the euro debate and also lies at the heart of the British economic predicament, namely the inflation outlook - 30th July 2012
 * Eurozone rescue without growth means Finland could be first to leave - After last week's euro meeting, Spanish 10-year government bond yields fell back to 6.6pc - 16th July 2012
 * Capitalism is in crisis but it's still our best bet for prosperity - The last couple of weeks have not been good for capitalism. The Libor scandal has come on top of yet more disputes about executive pay. This has brought forth the usual catcalls from the left and the usual kneejerk responses from the right - 9th July 2012
 * Euro break-up: Let Germany lead the northern core and France the rest - The respected economist and Telegraph columnist summarises the argument for an orderly break-up of the eurozone if a struggling member was forced to leave that won him the Wolfson Economics prize - 6th July 2012
 * Euro debt crisis: is complete pessimism justified? - Rarely have economists and policy-makers emitted such unmitigated gloom - 2nd July 2012
 * All the bail-out systems under the sun cannot make the eurozone work - Another week, another summit. This week's shindig of EU leaders in Brussels will be bound to focus on efforts to shore up the euro - 25th June 2012
 * Now’s the time for Osborne to spend some of his hard-won credibility - Whether and when Greece leaves the euro, the UK economy is in a pickle - 18th June 2012
 * Spooky parallels between Great Depression and euro crisis - Recent signs of global economic weakness have caused me to muse on the comparison between the world economy now and during the 1930s. The similarities are spooky - 11th June 2012
 * The political economy of euro break-up - So the Irish voted in favour of austerity. No surprises there - 4th June 2012
 * Neither spending cuts nor the eurozone are to blame for Britain's weak economy - There are two competing stories frequently put forward to explain why the British economy is currently so depressed. The first features "the cuts". The second, "Europe" - 29th May 2012
 * The most pro-European thing to do now is reject the euro - Those readers who have been berating me for years for even considering the possibility of a country leaving the euro have recently fallen silent. (You know who you are.) - 21st May 2012
 * The final death throes of the euro - The euro crisis is entering its final stages. Economic pain is now interacting with political resistance to produce intense financial pressure. I expect Greece to leave the euro – and perhaps very soon - 14th May 2012
 * Europe has reached a watershed moment and leaders need to refocus - By now you will know the result of the French Presidential election - and it could be momentous. We are at a watershed moment - not only in France but across the whole of Europe - 7th May 2012
 * Ministers spoilt for choice on where to direct pump-priming investment - Last week's "surprisingly" soft GDP figures elicited a flurry of different reactions. From the persistent optimists the response was simply that the numbers must be wrong - 30th April 2012
 * If the euro were to split, which way would the French connection go? - For whoever wins the second round of the French presidential election, the state of the economy will loom large. How serious is France’s economic predicament? - 23rd April 2012
 * Why a visit to the eurozone doctor won't relieve the pain in Spain - So much for the idea that the euro crisis is over! Last week it resurfaced again – with Spain now first in the firing line. How serious is the Spanish problem? - 16th April 2012
 * It's a path well travelled but road pricing could solve many problems - At this time of year, my thoughts frequently turn to roads. Perhaps this is because of Easter traffic jams; or because spring brings hope for new beginnings - 9th April 2012
 * Government’s choice of what to cut makes you wince - Whether or not there should be cuts in government spending is a hotly debated issue, but there is currently even a debate about whether there are any cuts going on at all - 2nd April 2012
 * Ireland dutifully gulped down the nasty medicine but is still in pain - The backdrop to the Chancellor's Budget last week was the assumption of gradual economic recovery - 26th March 2012
 * Budget 2012: A classic tale of spending, tax and reform - It is a curious belief some people have that twiddling with a few tax rates and expenditures in Wednesday’s Budget is going to transform matters - 19th March 2012
 * If the Chancellor has cash to spare, his best bet is to tuck it away safely - The tension is mounting, as we get ever closer to the exciting March event which can make the difference between financial heaven and hell - 12th March 2012
 * Greece bubbles towards a third bailout and boiling point - After my prognostications last Monday about the Greek deal, the markets took a decidedly more optimistic view. The catalyst was the announcement of a bumper amount of funding by the ECB to eurozone banks. Is the euro crisis now effectively over? - 5th March 2012
 * It may well turn out that we are watching not a Greek but a euro tragedy - Another week, another euro "solution". According to last week's plan, by 2020 the ratio of Greek national debt to GDP will be down to 120.5pc. You don't really need to know much more to see that we are in cloud cuckoo land - 27th February 2012
 * The spectre of deflation rises as inflation falls - Cash-strapped households should be helped by a sharp fall in inflation this week but it carries with it the seeds of an equally uncomfortable outcome - deflation - 12th February 2012
 * A messy but steady-as-she-goes monetary policy suits the world just fine - At this week’s meeting, the MPC may well decide to undertake another £50-75bn of Quantitative Easing (QE). Some will think this too small; some will think it too big - 6th February 2012
 * Britain should be preparing to make the most of the euro break-up - The week when Alex Salmond firmed up the details of the coming referendum in Scotland about breaking up the UK was a strange time for the Prime Minister to be singing the praises of the UK's monetary union and berating the eurozone as structurally flawed - 30th January 2012
 * At current yields, government bonds are a disaster waiting to happen - To those who thought that gilts (UK government bonds) were "resting on a bed of nitroglycerine", the past year has been an expensive experience - 23rd January 2012
 * Will printing more money solve our ills? - A producer on BBC Newsnight once pleaded with me not to use the term Quantitative Easing in a television interview - 16th January 2012
 * We may pass through Hell but the UK will rise from the flames - Over recent years, the ills of the US economy have been remarkably similar to the UK's: excessive growth of consumption, fuelled by credit; an overvalued housing market; a huge trade deficit with the rest of the world; and weak corporate investment - 9th January 2012
 * Share tips that offer investors a glimmer of hope amid the gloom - It's time for this column to take the plunge and reveal its stock selections for 2012 - 4th January 2012
 * With the crisis close to its worst point, 2012 will be the critical year for the eurozone - The place to start any review of the year ahead is with mea culpas for the year just passed. As usual, I have my fair share of them. But this time my forecast errors have a remarkable characteristic - 3rd January 2012



Articles: 2011

 * the euro is saved then Britain should quit the EU and say good riddance'' - The season of good cheer may be upon us but in this, my last column of the year, I want to discuss the attractions of good riddance. My subject is Britain’s relations with the EU - 19th December 2011
 * Enough self-flagellation, now we must find a way out of the darkness - As expected, last week's Autumn Statement was about as bleak as you could imagine any economic assessment to be. But enough of self-flagellation: what can be done to make things better? - 5th December 2011
 * Autumn Statement 2011: coalition government is still fighting a Phoney War - The Chancellor did his level best to make it sound as though he was taking action to improve our dire economic position - 30th November 2011
 * Autumn Statement must address the UK economy’s bleak midwinter - Tomorrow's Autumn Statement from George Osborne must be one of the most difficult speeches that any Chancellor has had to make - 28th November 2011
 * Why we cannot keep trying to breath life into the euro corpse - The world economy is on the brink of recession because those countries which have a natural tendency to spend don't have the money, while those who do have the money don't want to spend it - 14th November 2011
 * The portents are there as the euro crisis reaches the Rubicon - No surprise that last week's Cannes summit did not save the world - 7th November 2011
 * Brussels deal is another sticking plaster to patch up a shaky eurozone - The markets loved it. So that's all right then. Anyone who believes that the euro crisis is over should remind themselves that these are the self-same markets which, not that long ago, were lending to Greece at virtually the same interest rate as they were to Germany - 31st October 2011
 * Europe's leaders need to do more than patch up a creaking structure - Two weeks ago I analysed how we got into the current dire state. One of five major causes was the crisis of the euro, and this was related to two other problems, the weakness of the banks and excessive levels of sovereign debt. Have recent events brought us any closer to sorting all this out? - 24th October 2011
 * What the world most needs now is growth, not austerity - Debt cannot be magicked away. Reducing it is bound to have consequences - 17th October 2011
 * Unravelling an economy with an interlinked crisis - The immediate cause of the Great Recession was a banking crisis. Yet banking crises don’t usually stay confined to banks for long. In the modern world, they can quickly become a crisis of the public finances - 17th October 2011
 * Finding the human causes of this financial crisis can set us on the road to recovery - At last, a sense of urgency has gripped the authorities. But before we can find a way out of this epic morass, we need to be sure what got us here - 10th October 2011
 * Financial markets hold politicians to account over the euro crisis - Markets did not create the euro, politicians did. And they made a thoroughly bad job of it. Now they blame the markets for spotting their shoddy workmanship - 3rd October 2011
 * David Cameron's treatment risks killing the patient - The economy needs more spending, not less - 26th September 2011
 * UK should be preparing for a leading role in a more dynamic Europe - Another week, another tightening of the screw in the euro crisis. It is striking that things so recently unthinkable are now the topic of everyday conversation. And the mood among the European policy elites has changed dramatically too - 19th September 2011
 * Nations need to steer different courses through these choppy waters - Last week saw some very different approaches to addressing the current economic weakness, from fiscal expansionism in the US to continued austerity here and in the eurozone. Who is right? - 12th September 2011
 * When it comes to the crunch with the euro, economics will trump law - As the euro crisis has intensified, so the previously unthinkable has become the subject of widespread discussion. People have woken up to the idea that the euro could break up - 5th September 2011
 * most things keep getting better – and a few get worse'' - With consumer incomes under continued pressure and the outlook grim, this seems an odd time to consider the long-term growth of living standards - 29th August 2011
 * Osborne must find a way to get businesses spending money again'' - The recent GDP figures for the second quarter caused a major attack of anxiety about the state of the economy. In fact, the figures were not that bad - 22nd August 2011
 * writing is on the wall for the US and the dollar'' - By the time you read this, you may know the answer. Supposedly, the financial world is about to be hit by a disaster, namely an imminent US default, or the politicians will avert it with a last-minute deal. Both these views are misplaced - 1st August 2011
 * could ultimately take the future of euro out of Europe's hands'' - The British government did not decide to take sterling out of the ERM on September 16, 1992. It just happened - 25th July 2011
 * all Italy's attractions, there's good reason for concerns'' - Italy's worrying combination of high debt and weak economic growth, coupled with a dysfunctional government, places it firmly on the list of countries which present a relatively high risk of defaulting - 18th July 2011
 * has managed to mess up its own great property conversion plan'' - When it comes to the property market, governments are usually part of the problem, not the solution - 11th July 2011
 * EU must pedal back to move forward'' - So Greece has accepted its austerity package. That's all right then; crisis over. Anyone who believes this needs a crash course in economic reality - 4th July 2011
 * of the euro could usher in a welcome new dawn for Europe'' - It seems likely that some sort of deal will be struck to provide more funds for Greece and to postpone a formal default - 27th June 2011
 * need for UK economy 'Plan B' but let's suspend the foreign aid budget'' - The fact that so many people are now shouting about the need for a Plan B is unsurprising - 13th June 2011
 * between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea'' - There has been another deal stitched up to help Greece. However, it won’t necessarily solve the problem - 6th June 2011
 * can try to ‘delay and pray’ but the euro is running out of time'' - As a doomsayer from the start, who has written several times on the subject, I have recently been reluctant to burden my readers with more jeremiads about the euro - 29th May 2011
 * need to build up manufacturing, but not as much as you think'' - Britain's share of manufacturing is not ridiculously low - it is still larger than the share of financial services. Yet this is not how people commonly see things - 23rd May 2011
 * wrong kind of inflation'' - "It's not the inflation they need to sort out, Mr Bootle, it's the rising prices!" - 16th May 2011
 * we should hope for a large fall in commodity prices'' - Last week saw sharp falls in oil and commodity prices, including a record daily fall in the price of oil – of $12 a barrel - 9th May 2011
 * recovery struggles to gain momentum as Q1 figures show'' - Over and above their normal inadequacies, the GDP numbers will continue to be distorted for some time - 2nd May 2011
 * is far too important to be left in the care of academics'' - I have been using the Easter holiday to think about something different from my usual concerns – the state of economics itself - 24th April 2011
 * challenges facing investors and investment professionals'' - Personal investment is a goldmine for some but a minefield for most. The decade ahead is going to pose tough challenges for both personal investors and the investment professionals who serve them - 18th April 2011
 * ship is on the course that was set for it: heading for the rocks'' - Two events last week saw the crisis in the eurozone deepen - the Portuguese bail-out and the ECB's interest rate increase. But much more is brewing - 10th April 2011
 * needs an injection of Thatcherite radicalism'' - Once our debt to GDP ratio is set firmly on a downward path, what should be on the government’s agenda for fundamental reform? - 4th April 2011
 * 2011: Governments can bring about growth, but never through quick fixes'' - Last week's Budget was billed as "a budget for growth" yet hardly any serious analyst is even thinking about raising his forecast for long-term growth on the back of it - 28th March 2011
 * 2011: George Osborne makes the best of a bad job'' - It didn't set the world alight but then why should it? - 24th March 2011
 * 2011: Osborne must end Brown-era tinkering and bring simplicity, clarity and stability to the tax system'' - As Mark Twain said: “It is hard to make predictions – especially about the future.” I cannot remember a Budget being presented against a backdrop so bedevilled by profound uncertainties - 21st March 2011
 * Osborne can cement his reputation if he avoids a double dip'' - It is too early to rate Chancellor George Osborne against his predecessors, but attention should focus on his key growth-boosting decisions - 14th March 2011
 * East deserts hold seeds of a double-dip recession'' - When the first oil crisis hit in 1973/1974, I remember the consternation it caused among economists. Was the price rise inflationary or deflationary? the debate raged - 7th March 2011
 * help UK exporters' sterling work we need a competitive pound'' - The pound is back in the spotlight because of its role in both the recovery of the economy and the uncomfortable rise in inflation - 21st February 2011
 * King faces a rough ride over UK inflation fears'' - Fasten your seatbelts. This is going to be a turbulent week for economic statistics - 14th February 2011
 * must we make the same old policy failures in the housing market?'' - If the Government allowed house prices to fall rather than trying to artificially boost demand, it would go a good deal of the way towards helping first-time buyers and other "worthy" groups - 8th February 2011
 * members must stop up their ears: even a small rate rise could be fatal'' - Last week saw yet another horrific inflation figure and further rises are still to come. CPI inflation looks set to push through 4pc - 24th January 2011
 * that imperil the future of China and the West'' - Mr Li Keqiang, China’s vice-premier, expected to take over as premier in 2012, has now returned home after an apparently successful visit here which included signing some large trade agreements. The UK Government is pleased with itself. Let us hope that its optimism about our trade relations with China proves justified. But I am sceptical - 17th January 2011



Articles: 2010

 * delusion and deceit (and other ways to spring the debt trap)'' - Another month, another crisis. A cottage industry has sprung up in the City comparing the financing needs of the most vulnerable eurozone members with the bail-out funds already, or potentially, available. This is a delusionary diversion - 6th December 2010
 * holds Britain back is an ineffective government'' - Hong Kong and Singapore have bounced back strongly from recession, unlike Britain, and what make the difference is they have leaders who deliver whether it is providing vital infrastructure, education, or law and order - 29th November 2010
 * not unlucky, just an inevitable victim of the euro project'' - It might seem tempting to believe that the cruel fate which has befallen Ireland is the result of outrageous fortune – yet another "unforeseeable" event hitting the financial system. But it is not - 22nd November 2010
 * least we seem no nearer to falling for the gold delusion'' - The world needs a new international economic and monetary regime to replace the bedlam which currently threatens a return to the 1930s but gold is not the answer - 15th November 2010
 * Chinese will have to change their tune eventually'' - Increased domestic spending by China would reduce global imbalances in a way that would raise world demand and hence reduce unemployment in the West - 7th November 2010
 * now the good news for UK plc'' - Regular readers should be in no doubt about my views on the weakness of our immediate growth prospects, yet there is a danger of getting our current economic predicament out of perspective - 25th October 2010
 * the axe falls this week, how much will we really feel the cuts?'' - The day of doom is nearly upon us - 18th October 2010
 * the Government starting to wobble on the speed of fiscal tightening?'' - There has been an intense debate about how fast the budget deficit should be cut, and about spending cuts versus tax rises, but virtually no debate about the feasibility of rapid cuts in government spending. There should be - 11th October 2010
 * the latest casualty in a grim new game of beggar thy neighbour'' - The most toxic mixture in modern economies is banks and property bubbles. When the bubbles burst the destruction of so much illusory wealth brings economic disaster - 4th October 2010
 * and China battle over the trade policy that dare not speak its name'' - Last week, America's President Obama and China's President Wen Jiabao met for talks, with Sino-US trade relations high on the agenda. At the moment, the dispute is conducted by what Churchill called jaw-jaw. But before too long, if nothing is done, it will degenerate into trade war-war - 27th September 2010
 * looks as if investment bankers are back to their old arrogant ways'' - Two major landmarks were passed last week. One was the eighteenth anniversary of what was first called Black Wednesday, when the pound fell out of the ERM. The other was the second anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Bros, when the world was seemingly thrust towards financial disaster. Clearly, September is a dangerous month. This one has passed without incident – so far - 20th September 2010
 * is time for imaginative solutions to boost confidence'' - What can a government do to boost demand when all conventional policies have shot their bolt? Or, to put it differently, what is Plan B? - 13th September 2010
 * regret saying it but housing troubles are resurfacing'' - Over the years the housing market has been one of my favourite subjects – and one that has provided rich pickings for my critics. It is time to face their ire again - 6th September 2010
 * crisis has not gone away, it is merely masked by other troubles'' - The topsy-turvy nature of economic data – and even more so the markets' interpretation of it – never ceases to amaze me - 23rd August 2010
 * the current low gilt yields while you can - that's if you can'' - In recent weeks, good economic news has been hard to come by. But the market for government bonds has supplied some - 16th August 2010
 * I’ll see your double dip and raise you an economic black hole'' - Sometimes expressions that dominate common parlance serve to cloud rather than to clarify the central issues. You cannot mention the huge level of government borrowing without someone saying, "So you mean that there is a fiscal black hole?" - 26th July 2010
 * light of some dark reasons as to why Inflation remains high'' - There is a debate raging among economists about why inflation has recently been obstinately high. In many ways it holds the key to our economic future - 19th July 2010
 * may yet fly, but not while they're trapped in this rickety eurozone'' - Two of the eurozone's economic problems are dangerously inter-related. The first is enormous levels of government debt – about 120pc of GDP for Greece and Italy. The second is the loss of competitiveness of the eurozone's southern members - 12th July 2010
 * must not be seduced by apparent attractiveness of a strong pound'' - Be careful what you wish for. Not long ago, the pound was on the skids and some commentators warned of impending catastrophe as the world's investors took fright at the UK's prospects. In fact, the pound has risen - 5th July 2010
 * all very well, but someone must spend more to ensure recovery'' - While the G20 leaders may be debating cuts, what the world needs is increased demand and the surplus countries must deliver it - 28th June 2010
 * 2010: Tough and tame at the same time'' - By comparison with what we had grown used to, this Budget was a breath of fresh air. Moreover, the Chancellor went out of his way to be fair. But was it radical enough? - 23rd June 2010
 * 2010: This Budget will be one we'll want to forget, but we'll be unable to do so'' - Tuesday's budget falls on an inauspicious date. It was on June 22, 1940, that France surrendered to Nazi Germany, and on the same date a year later that Germany invaded the Soviet Union. It is also the date of Napoleon's second abdication in 1815, after the battle of Waterloo. More importantly, though, it is also my birthday - 21st June 2010
 * critical point for peak inflation is drawing nearer, believe it or not'' - The latest inflation figures, which are due out on Tuesday, will be an important indicator of prospects for interest rates and hence for the wider economy. Both the Bank of England and the markets will be watching them anxiously - 14th June 2010
 * how Brown went bad will keep Osborne on the right track'' - There are two good sources of valuable lessons in life – great successes and terrible failures. The last government gives an ample supply of both - 7th June 2010
 * a challenge, I'm sticking to my view that interest rates will stay low'' - Last week, as the markets quaked and then partly recovered, another bombshell was dropped by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the august Paris-based international organisation - 1st June 2010
 * the ECB should be about leadership, all Europe has is chaos'' - Many in the markets now fear a full-scale financial meltdown, amounting to a second Lehmans crisis. Last week's weakness in world equity markets was not so surprising - 24th May 2010
 * the deficit is daunting but it could have a silver lining'' - So here we are with a surprise coming together. They have buried their differences and plighted their troth. Mind you, this is the honeymoon period. There is no guarantee that the amity will last - 17th May 2010
 * the deficit is conquered, voters may well reward those who achieved it'' - Some commentators have suggested that the economic outlook is so awful that this was an election the parties should all have wanted to lose. (Looking at the results, you might conclude that in this aim they have all succeeded.) - 10th May 2010
 * crisis exposes default lines running through the eurozone'' - major economic and financial crises typically have small and sometimes distant beginnings - 3rd May 2010
 * got to find £100bn in cuts or tax - give thanks we're not in the euro'' - The third and final debate between the party leaders this Thursday focuses on the economy. On the latest evidence, how do things stack up? - 26th April 2010
 * holiday provides perspective on the war on wasteful spending'' - Last week's furore over the Conservatives' idea to rescind the planned increase in National Insurance (NI) contributions reached me while I was on holiday in Rome. Looking around the ruins of the Colosseum and the imperial palaces was, I found, a useful background - 12th April 2010
 * commercial property market is a matter of delay and pray'' - The crash in property prices has had a devastating impact on the banking system and there may be more to come - 5th April 2010
 * and China's national economic policies have become a source of global concern'' - Tensions over German economic policy are rising to a new pitch, which even the proposed bail-out for Greece will not relieve - 29th March 2010
 * 2010: Compared to the post-election decisions, the Budget is just a sideshow'' - This week's Budget is going to have a distinct aura of fin de siècle about it. And an air of unreality. Prudence died a long time ago, to be succeeded by Profligacy. But Pain has not yet replaced it - 22nd March 2010
 * competitive pound is one of the few things we have got going for us'' - Last week saw publication of some of the most depressing statistics since the economic crisis began - 15th March 2010
 * year on and quantitative easing is paused– but when will it return?'' - Last week an important anniversary passed quietly by. It is a year since the Bank of England started its programme of asset purchases, generally referred to as Quantitative Easing - 8th March 2010
 * tightening - to cut or not to cut, that is the question'' - last week George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, delivered the Mais Lecture, which sketched out what an incoming Conservative government would do to cut the deficit. Meanwhile, a City research note argued that if he got the chance to do this then it could prompt a collapse of confidence - 1st March 2010
 * current Greek crisis is merely act one of a much wider tragedy'' - According to the old adage, we are supposed to beware Greeks bearing gifts. We now learn that we also have to beware Greeks seeking them. This crisis is the first clear expression of a problem present at the foundation of the euro - 15th February 2010
 * it's the army of bureaucrats we should cut, not defence spending'' - Supposedly, two things in life are certain – death and taxes. But in British national life, there are two more – economic downturns and defence reviews. And they have a nasty habit of interacting - 8th February 2010
 * weakening recovery poses the real threat of a double-dip recession'' - Never before in the field of human conflab has so much fuss been made by so many about so little - 30th January 2010
 * rates must stay below 1pc'' - Video: Roger Bootle tells Robert Miller about his fears for the UK economy despite the official end of recession - 28th January 2010
 * cheers for Obama's plan to reform a seriously flawed industry'' - What a difference a surprise election defeat can make, particularly when juxtaposed with the news of Goldman Sachs bonuses - 25th January 2010
 * has to stop the Orient express and its cargo of trade imbalances'' - The furore over bankers' bonuses and levies on banks has deflected attention away from what I reckon was a more fundamental contributor to the financial crisis, namely the imbalance in trade between Asia and the West - 18th January 2010
 * problems are easily solvable, provided recession is conquered'' - If you read some of the more excitable commentators, you would think that the UK is in danger of going bankrupt - 11th January 2010
 * are tough times ahead but my money's on a resurgent UK'' - In economic terms, 2009 was one of the most calamitous years in the nation's history. I suppose it is fitting that forecasters should have shared in this misery, professionally as well as personally - 4th January 2010



Articles: 2009

 * cack-handed tax on bonuses and we'll be in serious trouble'' - Christmas week, when we should be thinking of brotherly love and all things nice, may seem an inappropriate juncture to tackle the vexed question of bankers' pay - 21st December 2009
 * UK is a hardy perennial and there is opportunity for it to flower again'' - Even before last week's depressing PBR, the national mood was dire. I have never known so many people, both at home and abroad, so downbeat about the UK, or so many of those at home, both British and foreign, seriously considering leaving - 14th December 2009
 * report: What planet does Alistair Darling live on with talk of bingo and boilers?'' - What was it that Dr Johnson said about a dog standing on its hind legs? It is not surprising that it is not done well; the surprise is that it is done at all. So I thought, listening to poor Alistair Darling's measured but lugubrious tones, trying to sound sober, hopeful and determined, all at the same time, while studiously doing nothing at all - 10th December 2009
 * mind this 'Phoney Budget Report', debt is a future Chancellor's lot'' - This Wednesday we are once again set to enjoy what will doubtless be a dour presentation of our national finances from Mr Darling, sounding not so much like a Chancellor of the Exchequer as like a bank manager. Come to think of it, given the Government's huge stakes in banks, that is not inappropriate - 7th December 2009
 * the nights draw in so should the deficit, with the aid of sound policies'' - With the nights drawing in, most people's thoughts turn to Christmas. For a few sad types like yours truly, however, they turn to the pre-Budget report (PBR) - 30th November 2009
 * high street is surprisingly defying the gloomsters, but for how long?'' - Last week's official retail sales figures for October suggested that consumers are continuing to defy the gloomsters - 23rd November 2009
 * armageddon? Not yet, but come 2011 it's another story'' - Tomorrow will see the publication of figures on inflation. On all the various definitions, inflation has now been falling since the beginning of the year. The figures for October will probably show that it has moved up slightly – on the CPI measure from 1.1pc to about 1.4pc. - 16th November 2009
 * recovery is more in the air than in the economy so far'' - Thanks to Gordon Brown, this weekend's meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Scotland was not quite the damp squib that was expected - 9th November 2009
 * measures are of no use when dealing with public sector debt'' - Last week saw further evidence of the dire state of the public finances. Borrowing came in at almost £15bn for September alone and nearly £80bn for the financial year so far - 26th October 2009
 * lurks in the shadows as pay increases continue to shrivel'' - Pay is back in the news. Admittedly it is bankers' pay which has hit the headlines, but it is ordinary pay that is economically significant - 19th October 2009
 * recessions point to future pitfalls'' - What is likely to happen to the world economy after the financial crisis? - 12th October 2009
 * can't trumpet a housing market revival on a low number of sales'' - Although prices may well rise for a few more months yet, a number of things could easily derail the housing recovery – even if the economic revival continues - 5th October 2009
 * heaven we didn't join the euro when Blair wanted us to'' - The last week has seen the renewal of acute worry about the state of the pound - 28th September 2009
 * leaders must keep in mind the dangers of the protection racket'' - Of all the dangers which could yet cause the current economic recovery to disappoint, perhaps the most serious is the threat of restrictions on imports - 21st September 2009
 * collapse has driven a sword through case for laissez faire'' - The Lehman Brothers failure marked a pivotal point in our history. It unleashed such panic that for a time it seemed that the whole financial system might implode and the world could be plunged into an economic collapse equal to or greater than the Great Depression - 14th September 2009
 * bonuses will not solve the deep problems in the banking sector'' - I returned from holiday to find the City in a funk over something on which I have been pondering long and hard, and which forms a major part of my forthcoming new book - 7th September 2009
 * real is the danger that swine flu will derail economic recovery?'' - The primary concern about the outbreak of swine flu is, overwhelmingly, the possible loss of life - 3rd August 2009
 * could catch a cold from swine flu - or a range of other nasties'' - Are we on the way out of recession or still stuck in it? Economists have been falling over themselves to be the first to call the recovery, but it is beginning to look as though they are too early - 27th July 2009
 * and rations in banking: do bankers deserve what they get?'' - Last week's Walker Report on corporate governance raised many issues and made many suggestions, but the ones that have gained the most attention surround the vexed question of bankers' pay - 20th July 2009
 * suggests it could be decades before the dollar is dislodged'' - In the run-up to last week's G8 summit it came across loud and clear that the Chinese, and with them many in India, Russia and elsewhere, are questioning whether the dollar can – or should – remain as the world's de facto international money - 13th July 2009
 * Bank of England should be given the binoculars it needs to spot the next asset bubble in waiting'' - At Thursday's Monetary Policy Committee meeting, interest rates will surely be kept at their record low of 0.5pc - 6th July 2009
 * can afford to keep interest rates at record low for many years'' - Slack in the economy will be keep price pressures well contained, without the need for higher rates - 29th June 2009
 * are still serious structural weaknesses in the UK economy'' - City scribblers have been falling over themselves to revise up their forecasts. Supposedly, the recession is over. But is it? - 22nd June 2009
 * rebound in oil and commodity prices could derail the global economic recovery'' - Just about everything in the economy is inter-related. No sooner do you think that you can see the way ahead than the reaction to a previous change comes along and hits you in the face - 15th June 2009
 * have a five-year public spending freeze to kill off big government'' - As the meltdown of the Government has been gathering pace against the backdrop of the continuing saga of MPs' expenses, another financial scandal has been rumbling on: the appalling state of the UK's public finances - 8th June 2009
 * write off the deflation danger just yet'' - Last autumn, when the panic about the world economy was at its peak, one thing which, along with everything else, deeply troubled the markets, was the prospect of deflation, that is to say, a period of falling prices across the economy - 1st June 2009
 * false dawns, the consumer downturn is still in its early stages'' - Don't laugh. Last week saw some unexpected good news. Indeed, if you looked only at the retail sales figures, you wouldn't know that we are in a recession. What on earth is going on? - 25th May 2009
 * strong-arm policy is needed to hold the pound down on the rebound'' - A low pound is essential for the UK's economic recovery and should be a political priority - 18th May 2009
 * economic effects will linger long after the panic has petered out'' - Collapse? What collapse? Investors appear to have concluded that it's all over - 11th May 2009
 * gored matadors will have foreign investors running for the exit'' - As a lesson in the pitfalls of doing business in Britain, it's hard to beat Ferrovial's acquisition of BAA - 6th May 2009
 * is sprung, green shoots are riz; I wonder where inflation is?'' - Spring has come and green shoots have been sprouting. Certainly recent stock market performance suggests that someone thinks that recovery is just around the corner - 4th May 2009
 * reduction is better done by cuts in spending than raising taxes'' - There is something odd about the idea that the huge levels of government debt revealed in last week's Budget must imply penury for ever more - 27th April 2009
 * the Budget was a numbers game, the Chancellor definitely lost'' - As expected, the budget was really a holding operation. The startling thing is that, gargantuan though the forecast borrowing numbers are, they are still likely to prove too low - 24th April 2009
 * sketch out the route ahead, Mr Darling, that will be scary enough'' - It is only five months since poor Alistair Darling had to stand at the despatch box and announce those dreadful borrowing figures in his Pre-Budget Report (PBR). He must now announce numbers which would surely have been beyond his imagination then – and still we won't be sure that this is the worst of it - 20th April 2009
 * days! We still make enough stuff to trade our way out of recession'' - while manufacturing's share of the economy has fallen, the level of output has still risen - 13th April 2009
 * talk of recovery as the world economy is not a picture of health'' - The apparent triumph of last week's G20 summit has coincided with a more optimistic mood in markets. Is this the moment when we should recognise that the worst is over and start looking for recovery? - 6th April 2009
 * Our leaders must ensure we don't take the road to a repeat of the 1990s'' - This week sees another milestone in the continuing saga of the slump – the G20 Summit in London, attended by the heads of government, finance ministers and bank governors of the most important countries in the world. What can we expect from it? - 30th March 2009
 * consumer crisis will really show its teeth as more jobs vanish'' - Unemployment is the hinge which links the corporate sector to the personal - 23rd March 2009
 * should thank our lucky stars we escaped the budding euro-zone disaster'' - Not so long ago, political leaders in the euro-zone looked at the economic disaster brewing in the United Sates with insouciance – and even a touch of schadenfreude - 16th March 2009
 * must react quickly to avoid the pitfalls in quantitative easing'' - 9th March 2009
 * is a useful tool for the Bank as it tries to fix the economic plumbing'' - The UK is about to embark on a policy of so-called "quantitative easing", perhaps as soon as this Thursday's MPC vote - 2nd March 2009
 * need to rely on something more than a seething mass of greed'' - It is with some trepidation that I discuss the vexed issue of bankers' pay - 16th February 2009
 * prices have much further to fall and that is no bad thing'' - Last week saw some rare, cheerful news about the housing market juxtaposed with some truly dreadful news about industry - 9th February 2009
 * must prepare for the recovery - whenever it comes'' - The gloom seems to be deepening by the day. Don't think I am confident, let alone bullish if, I turn my attention this week to recovery - 2nd February 2009
 * claim that we're going down the plughole must be rejected'' - It takes a real bear to make me sound bullish. I have been dispensing gloom and doom about the economy for ages. In some quarters I am known as Doctor Death. And I have to say, I am extremely gloomy now - 26th January 2009
 * no time for punishing those responsible for this recession'' - Who would have thought that my article last week on savings and the recession would have elicited such an onslaught of emails; more, I think, than followed any other article I have ever written - 19th January 2009
 * recession demands that we employ logic and spend our way out of it'' - There are many uncertainties about the current situation but logic should not be one of them - 12th January 2009
 * will be much worse for the UK economy, but it won't be a complete write-off'' - Now that the season of good cheer has past, the season of soothsaying is upon us – which means the season of woe - 5th January 2009



Articles: 2008

 * to admit we don't know whether sterling's pounding will continue'' - The fact taxi drivers have started to talk obsessively about the exchange rate is the surest sign yet that the bird has flown - 22nd December 2008
 * the europhiliac chorus – we need the pound now more than ever'' - The europhiliacs are on the march again. They have been pushing three arguments in favour of the UK joining the euro - 15th December 2008
 * for zero'' - 1pc is no sacred cow. There's no reason not to push interest rates lower - 8th December 2008
 * on earth did we get into this mess?'' - Listening to Alistair Darling's speech last Monday, I had a surreal experience - 1st December 2008
 * much and nowhere near enough'' - Alistair Darling told us that despite the recession there are half a million unfilled jobs. Listening to him, I thought that Chancellor of the Exchequer might be one of them - 25th November 2008
 * end of challenges ahead for Darling, but how far will he go?'' - Announcing a path back to fiscal sanity will be a tough act to pull off - 24th November 2008
 * crisis: There is a time for prudence and this is definitely not it'' - By now you will know the outcome of the conference of G20 countries in Washington, dubbed Bretton Woods II, after the conference which took place in 1944 and which shaped the post–war global economic regime. I am not expecting much - 17th November 2008
 * crisis: Which country will take the sub-prime prize?'' - 10th November 2008
 * a fiscal framework for depression and recovery'' - 5th November 2008
 * now face Keynesian conditions and need truly Keynesian solutions'' - 27th October 2008
 * make a drama out of this financial crisis'' - In fact, amid all the gloom, there has recently been some outstandingly good news which has received too little attention - 21st October 2008
 * is no time to worry about moral imperatives'' - There is much more grief to come but I suspect that last week may come to be seen as the point at which the financial crisis turned - 13th October 2008
 * need a bold monetary policy'' - Another week, another panic-struck policy, made on the hoof – this time in Ireland. Whatever next? - 6th October 2008
 * package is better than the alternatives'' - The devil is in the detail. The crucial detail is the price paid for toxic assets by the Treasury - 30th September 2008
 * we have learned the limits to free markets – the hard way'' - The real economy is engineering plus social organisation. Finance is applied mathematics, mixed with human nature. It has recently become clear what a combustible mixture the latter is - 22nd September 2008
 * the Fannie and Freddie bail out should not be repeated in Britain'' - 21st September 2008
 * Russia bear may pass test of strength, but it still fails Berlin Wall challenge - Which is stronger, the Russian bear or the British lion? The spat between Russia and the West about Georgia has led to much apocalyptic talk about confrontation - 22nd September 2008
 * This credit crisis is like the plague and nobody is safe yet - A year since the credit crunch burst upon an unsuspecting world, the big questions remain unanswered. Where are we now? Is it nearly over? And has understanding finally caught up with reality? - 22nd September 2008
 * Why the Fannie and Freddie bail out should not be repeated in Britain - 22nd September 2008
 * The faster house prices fall, the better off we'll all be - Something must be done! This is something. Therefore it must be done. Following such logic, governments have blundered into all sorts of interventions which they have subsequently lived to regret - 22nd September 2008
 * Financial Crisis: How we have learned the limits to free markets – the hard way - The real economy is engineering plus social organisation. Finance is applied mathematics, mixed with human nature. It has recently become clear what a combustible mixture the latter is - 21st September 2008



Articles: 2007

 * Don't worry, recessions are good for the economy - It is looking increasingly likely that the UK will fall into recession, that is to say, aggregate output will fall outright. As the news on the economy has got darker, so the prevailing mood in the country has got gloomier. But are recessions really worth so much gnashing and grinding of teeth? - 24th August 2008
 * The threat to the economy is thoroughly man-made - The prime threat to our economy comes not from the biblical events of recent days but rather from something modern and thoroughly man-made, namely the implosion in global credit markets - 30th July 2007



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Articles: 2001
