John Authers



Profile: Timeline
Full name: John Authers

Area of interest: Investment

Journals/Organisation: Financial Times

Email: [mailto:john.authers@ft.com john.authers@ft.com]

Personal website:

Website: http://www.ft.com/comment/columnists/johnauthers

Blog:

Representation:

Networks: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/7/463/738



Biography:
About:

Education: University College, Oxford: Philosophy, Politics and Economics; Columbia University: MA Journalism; Columbia Business School: MBA

Career: Freelanced for The Daily Telegraph and The Guardian, and also worked for Congressional Quarterly in Washington, DC. Joined FT in 1990: general reporter (covering Margaret Thatcher's attempt to introduce a poll tax, and subsequently covering the fund management and life assurance sectors); education correspondent, April 1993/1996 (based in London, also responsible for covering training, and British municipal government); US markets editor, US banking correspondent, 1996/2001 (based in New York, covering banking industry and Wall Street, and also initiating the FT's special US coverage of fund management); Mexico City bureau chief, 2001/2006 (responsible for covering political and economic developments in Mexico and Central America); became FT's Investment Editor in September 2006

Current position/role: Senior investment columnist


 * also writes/has written for:

Other roles/Main role: Global head of the Lex column

Other activities: Semi-professional singer (member of the Philharmonia Chorus in London), singing in the chorus for soloists such as Luciano Pavarotti, Cecilia Bartoli, and Bryn Terfel, and under conductors including James Levine and Kurt Masur, and performing in Carnegie Hall and in concert halls across Europe as well as on more than a dozen CDs. He is also an enthusiastic hiker, having climbed Kilimanjaro and reached the base camps of Everest, and of K2's Concordia glacier. On University Challenge he led the highest-scoring team in the history of the show

Disclosures:

Viewpoints/Insight:

Broadcast media:

Video:

Controversy/Criticism:

Awards/Honours:
 * Journalistic Awards: Unit Trust Association's national journalist of the year, 1992 - for campaigning on the mis-selling of insurance products
 * Business and Technology Education Council's national journalist of the year, 1994
 * 'Best of Knight-Bagehot' award, 2002 - for most outstanding journalism by an alumnus of the Knight-Bagehot fellowship
 * 2010 Senior financial journalist of the year by the Wincott Foundation, the premier award in British financial journalism.

Scoops:

Other:



Books & Debate:

 * The victim's fortune OCLC 59489939 (co-author Richard Wolffe), 2002 (The subject of the book is the campaign by Holocaust survivors to gain restitution from European banks and governments)

see also, article: The road to restitution - 'Ten years ago this week, on the hottest day of a sweaty New York summer, an excited crowd gathered around a courthouse in Brooklyn to hear history proclaimed. A scrum of business-suited lawyers and Jewish activists emerged on the steps as Alfonse D’Amato, a US senator, read out a brief statement announcing that UBS and Credit Suisse, the two biggest Swiss banks, had agreed to pay $1.25bn to Holocaust survivors' - Financial Times, 15th August 2008

Latest work: The Fearful Rise of Markets: Global Bubbles, Synchronized Meltdowns, and How To Prevent Them in the Future OCLC551409146, 2010

Speaking/Appearances:

Debate: 

Financial Times: 'Short View' (video)
Column name:

Remit/Info: Investment

Section: Companies & Markets

Role: Investment Editor

Pen-name:

Email: [mailto:john.authers@ft.com john.authers@ft.com]

Website: FT.Com / John Authers

Commissioning editor:

Day published:

Regularity: Daily

Column format:

Average length: 350 words



Articles:

 * FT.Com / John Authers (archive)



Financial Times: ‘Long View’
Column name:

Remit/Info: Examines long term trends affecting investors in global markets

Section: Money

Role: Investment Editor

Pen-name:

Email: [mailto:john.authers@ft.com john.authers@ft.com]

Website: FT.com / The Long View

Commissioning editor:

Day published: Saturday

Regularity: Weekly

Column format: Single topic

Average length: 850 / 1000 words



Articles: 2014

 * What to do about market inefficiency? - ‘Value’ momentum leads eventually to bubbles and mispricings - 10th March
 * Number games: was 666 low enough in 2009? - Judged by other US stock market bottoms, 2009’s looks early - 8th March
 * Value in emerging markets is eroding fast - Crisis creates opportunities, but they are becoming tough to identify - 6th March
 * Ziggy Stardust fears still haunting stocks - Politics, not finance, may pose greatest risk of new crash - 1st March
 * Beware the lure of go-go growth stocks -Rewards for successful investors are high, but hard to reach - 27th February
 * A return to the old game of second-guessing - The Fed and BoE embrace pre-crisis rules of engagement - 15th February
 * The case for a healthy correction - The danger is of a bubble that can only be corrected by a far sharper and more damaging fall - 8th February
 * Japan’s new-year drop is not a buy signal - But bargains are available in sectors where momentum is strong - 6th February
 * Eulogy to Bernanke’s turbulent Fed years - Early judgments of Fed chairmen have more tendency for revisions than economic forecasts - 31st January
 * Emerging markets suffer a developing hangover - Fed, China and now Argentina send investors scurrying for cover - 25th January
 * Debate rages on small-caps’ big returns - Smaller companies reliably outperform over the longer term - 25th January
 * Falling prices deflate recovery hopes - In the US and the eurozone, inflation is falling - 11th January
 * FT and social media really do move markets - Wikipedia visits and Google search linked to swings, research says - 4th January



Articles: 2013

 * Take the Long View backwards - Buying Greek debt and selling German Bunds yields 2013 gains - 27th December
 * Better, fairer lending sacrificed for liquidity - Universal approach that could mean funds go to wrong borrowers - 24th December
 * Risks of QE are in the descent - Too slow a removal of stimulus could generate risky asset bubbles - 20th December
 * Hazards that could derail the rally in 2014 - The case for further gains is strong, but risks remain - 14th December
 * Revenge of the Stockpickers threatens - Passive managers have dominated sales for five years - 9th December
 * Markets warm to Fed after taper tantrums - Investors convince themselves they can deal with less QE - 7th December
 * Wealth of detective work on China’s data - Nobody is sure whether they believe numbers supplied by China - 7th December
 * Reasons to be thankful in past 12 months - A list of happy surprises over the year - 30th November
 * Fund management reform will help avert groupthink - Reforming the investment industry should be a higher priority - 25th November
 * US stocks bull run lacks believers - But it will keep going for a while longer - 23rd November
 * Rich make same investment errors as rest - Study shows only super rich are ahead of the game - 20th November
 * Markets bet QE cannot last for much longer - Cracking the code of the new Federal Reserve chief will be key - 16th November
 * Forget China, switch to Mexico or Egypt - Growth is ‘driven by knowledge – at the level of society, not the individual’ - 2nd November
 * This is no time to get off the equity train - Portfolio diversification has not worked well in bullish stock markets - 25th October
 * Opposites devise clear plan for investing - Nudging investment industry in right direction deserves a prize - 21st October
 * Equities rejoice but we cannot brush off shutdown - Political drama may have many lasting market implications - 19th October
 * Taleb reveals unsettling truths - Western economy is overcentralised, creating extra risk - 14th October
 * Markets on edge while stupidity prevails - While political risk remains, managing money is hard - 12th October
 * When it all comes down to number 400 - Stock market historian Russell Napier focuses on great times to buy - 7th October
 * The crucial importance of executive pay - Andrew Smithers’ book is a startling attack on bonuses for corporate chiefs - 7th October
 * Pull closet indexing out of the closet - Fund manager practice is a tax on millions of investors - 5th October
 * Barely a taper never mind a great rotation - Not in bondholders’ interests to sell in a hurry - 27th September
 * Side-effects that should call time on QE - An incomplete list of how quantitative easing is damaging - 23rd September
 * Fed still has cred but taper bulls do not - Hard to see with hindsight why the market expected ‘Septaper’ - 21st September
 * Fed’s QE has broken post-crisis pattern - Rises in the S&P500 have correlated almost perfectly with injections of money - 14th September
 * Corporate Europe can stage a rebound - Hope of profits taking off is not as far-fetched as it sounds - 9th September
 * Risk of new crisis gives Fed cause for pause - It grows ever clearer that QE failed to jolt the US labour market into life - 7th September
 * Clash of the Cape crusaders - The world’s leading market historians are locked in an intense debate over the true value of stocks - 2nd September
 * Does renewed acronym anxiety spell crisis? - First it was Piigs, now Fragile Five Biits, as EM scare unsettles - 31st August
 * Emerging markets can avoid a crisis - The correction in EMs will usher in a period of much quieter returns - 24th August
 * Capital glut desperately needs guidance - Capital demands solutions that the world currently lacks - 19th August
 * Baffling recovery of profitless stocks - Strength of indices defies climate of declining earnings - 17th August
 * BoE guidance brings work for investors - They will need to watch the economy more closely - 10th August
 * Tread carefully on infrastructure - The opportunity is obvious but beware the risks - 5th August
 * Quality could still be underpriced by markets - Credit Suisse research suggests Warren Buffett is right - 3rd August
 * Helpful to discuss Glass-Steagall option - It’s a shame the Depression-era legislation was repealed - 29th July
 * Prime London property shows bubble signs - Prices are now almost seven times the UK average - 27th July
 * Summertime and the trading is easy - The Fed’s tapering plans have driven volatility in currencies and rates, but equities are calm - 21st July
 * This time there is a case to buy Japan - Corporate reporting season will be test of profitability - 20th July
 * Volatility the only certainty ahead - Markets swings are inevitable as an end to QE comes into view - 13th July
 * Markets: The investor’s dilemma - Making more money may require resorting to the ‘three dirty words of finance’ - 12th july
 * Challenging times await asset managers - Belief is growing that asset managers pay themselves too much - 8th July
 * ECB comes to the market’s rescue again - Reasons for eurozone worries have not gone away - 6th July
 * On Monday: There’s money to be made through forensic accounting - And it can also be a useful tool to hunt down market inefficiency - 1st July
 * Stocks are a good bet to beat bonds - Long retreat from easy US monetary policy has begun - 22nd June
 * Avoid those who say they know - Rising Treasury yields is a straightforward reaction to better data - 15th June
 * Timing is all during the Fed’s ‘tapering’ terror - Investment outlook is poor as both bonds and stocks are expensive - 8th June
 * Time is right for new faces in finance - Governments should step back and see what works - 1st June
 * Origin of Japan rout lies in Washington - Vital question for markets is what the Fed does - 25th May
 * Europeans consent to costs rip-off - Managers who have maintained low costs in the past tend to maintain that culture in the future - 18th May
 * Capital is flowing to the wrong places - Default rates used to correlate with economic cycles - 11th May
 * The smart money is on energy efficiency - The next five or ten years may well be devoted to a bid to improve energy efficiency - 6th May
 * Central bankspeak is driving stocks - Central banks want companies to borrow - 3rd May
 * Banks can’t lend if they can’t find borrowers - Hard to see ECB action this week having any lasting effect - 28th April
 * Outward appearances belie abnormal reality - ECB can do little to help a stuck Europe - 27th April
 * The ending of top-down world is nigh - Room for debate over markets but main factor is risk of crisis - 27th April
 * Gold’s fall a long time in the making - Disappointing global growth is reason to be worried for the long term - 20th April
 * Beware the costs of actively managed funds - Only a small band of managers outperform index benchmarks - 6th April
 * Gold has rival for disaffected’s affections - Bitcoin bubble has inflated since the bailout of Cyprus - 5th April
 * Bargain basement banks not such a bargain - The optimism must stop when it comes to cheap buys - 1st April
 * China questions not to pass over - Expensive property, expanding credit, rising inflation and the currency - 30th March
 * Asian currency moves misunderstood - Companies that offer some play on the Chinese consumer have the advantage - 25th March
 * Learning process - This year’s award winners, who represent capitalism in all its diversity, have much to teach one another - 23rd March
 * Why capitalism remains in rude health - 16th March
 * Why prediction markets still have a future - Others will attempt to take Intrade’s place and alter its model - 12th March
 * US stock market completes round trip - 9th March
 * Beware if the ‘inflation genie’ escapes - 2nd March
 * Pride came before the fall for the pound - Investors will not lose by selling something for more than it is worth - 23rd February
 * Buffett tastes ‘quality’ not ‘value’ in Heinz - The latest buyout is not what many think it is - 18th February
 * Back to the future on a cycle made in China - Surge in materials prices coincides with a ‘lost decade’ for stocks - 16th February
 * Austria’s 97 years of loss offer lessons - Ever-present biases in market point to possible strategy for investment success - 9th February
 * Activist spat distracts from real targets - All the signs suggest this is a great time to take aim at boards - 4th February
 * Markets dazzled by Goldilocks on Ice - On the basis of rates staying low, the global rally goes on - 2nd February
 * Reasons to feel bullish as political clouds fade - There is better reason to hope for a break out than for long while - 26th January
 * Confusion over the low yields distortion - Have exceptionally low bond yields distorted investors’ message? - 20th January
 * Optimism as Japan emerges from irrelevance - 19th January
 * Quest for test of investment skill persists - Pressure is on active funds to sort their act out - 12th January
 * Fiscal cliff avoided but pitfalls loom - Avoiding other potential disasters is likely but cannot be guaranteed - 5th January



Articles: 2012

 * Memphis message gives bonds perspective - It’s time to start shading exposures to bonds - 28th December
 * Euro will keep confounding - 13th October
 * Romney and the big global economic risk - Mitt Romney’s excoriation of the “47 per cent” of the US population who pay no federal income tax is alarming. It is a symptom of perhaps the greatest risk now facing the world economy - 24th September
 * Forecast for a flat year is going sideways - Time is running out for 2012. The equinox has just passed, and fund managers are focused like a laser beam on the end of this year, the period over which they will be judged - 22nd September
 * Fed sets its sights on infinity and beyond - Fed says that it will not stop when things start to improve - 15th September
 * Fed felt it had to act - Real fear of new recession and no reason to trust politicians - 14th September
 * Jobless data not all gloom for Obama - Rate of progress on cutting unemployment at election time is more important than the level - 8th September
 * Old news can be good for canny investors - Analysing already existing data may be enough to beat the market - 1st September
 * Obama should pray that China overtakes US - Fellow Financial Times columnist Niall Ferguson has received some fierce criticism for a piece he wrote in Newsweek, under the provocative headline: “Hit the road, Barack” - 27th August
 * Seasonal reflections on the eurozone - The odds are on a new outbreak of crisis in the coming months - 25th August
 * Distortion makes mockery of US tax cuts - Profit manipulation has risen in the last decade - 20th August
 * Stocks bask in Olympian glow - Like many Londoners, I still feel I am inhabiting a pleasant helium-filled bubble, full of Olympic good cheer. Being part of a successful party will make most people relax and feel happier - 18th August
 * A return to vision of J.P. Morgan - Credit and stock markets no longer function on trust - 30th July
 * Sporting chance to put puff into banking - Cast in the role of a truce-bearing herald is Mario Draghi, the governor of the ECB - 28th July
 * America cannot cut its way to prosperity - Cost cuts must be running far deeper than Wall Street had thought - 23rd July
 * A diet of hard truths - When commodity market movements are beyond control, take notice - 21st July
 * Investors weigh obesity battle’s benefits - Time to invest in groups at the forefront of the fight - 16th July
 * US earnings season set to escalate drama - Earnings forecasts and the market are at odds - 14th July
 * Correlation will lead to opportunities - Investment managers stand to benefit once economic risks recede - 9th July
 * Keynes stands tall among investors - He had the intellectual confidence needed to make contrarian investments - 7th July
 * Investors should play role in bankers’ pay - The necessity of paying a viable return should force a reassessment - 2nd July
 * Testing Spain and Italy defences - Investing, like football, is a game of two halves - 29th June
 * Quick-fixes sustain tough habit - Addiction has played out in waves of ‘risk-on’ and ‘risk-off’ markets - 23rd June
 * Memories of Lehman hang over Greek polls - There is no precedent for a country to leave the eurozone - 17th June
 * Vintage strategy tempts jaded investors - Fine wine indices have tripled while stocks have been flat - 9th June
 * Chinese medicine runs out for ailing Europe - Europe needs saving once more but it does not look like China can do it again - 2nd June
 * Cult of equities is dead. Long live equities - Repression will end and rates will normalise but the timing is guesswork - 26th May
 * A story of hope somehow defying logic - Far more must be done to reform the eurozone’s structure - 19th May
 * Greek tragedy puts political roles in peril - One UK-based bookmaker has stopped taking bets on Athens to leave - 12th May
 * The rising risks of Volcker Rule-plus - US regulators may now catch the European mood - 12th May
 * Strange market physics underpins US recovery - The physics of markets and economics can be strange. Trends continue in motion long after they should have halted. It can take years for ineffable logic to work itself out in market prices. External shocks take time before they are reflected in inevitable damage to the overall economy - 5th May
 * When value goes out of style - Times like this can shake your faith in your values. And even in value - 28th April
 * Spain still embodies roots of financial crisis - “In Spain, the dead are more alive than the dead of any other country in the world.” - 21st April
 * Crack the da Vinci code for money masterpiece - We will never achieve perfection, but that does mean we should not attempt to get closer to it - 14th April
 * Trends that don’t seem to make sense - Four riddles perplexing investors - 7th April
 * So far, the pain is likely to stay mainly in Spain - 31st March
 * Bonds and equities face a plate-shifting moment - Money from bonds must go somewhere. As investors will be optimistic on the economy, it should go into stocks - 24th March
 * Good judgment - The winners have been rewarded for taking some unexpected risks - 24th March
 * Fed tries to muscle past ‘seven lean years’ - 17th March
 * The tense storyline of an economic whodunit - Where exactly is the global economy heading? - 10th March
 * Odds are still on a crab, not a bull - World stocks are roaring but will fall as new risks appear - 3rd March
 * From hell in a handbasket to sunlit uplands, and back - Investors will continue to swing between fear and hope - 27th February
 * To reduce banks’ risks, profits have to shrink - It is an oft-forgotten principle that bank runs are lethal - 25th February
 * Inflation cycle puts lid on sustained recovery - Developed countries will continue to export inflation - 22nd February
 * Hedgehopper’s guide to living with inflation - Safety is in short supply and expensive - 10th February
 * When good news is good and so is bad news - I was looking for a job and then I found a job, And heaven knows I’m miserable now, The Smiths, 1984 - 3rd February



Articles: 2011

 * 2012: another year of the crab? - There are two unavoidable truths. First, nobody knows the future. And second, putting your money anywhere, even under the bed, involves a risk - 30th December
 * It’s time to dispel festive spirit over stocks - Our chances of a happy new year will be better if we grasp that stocks could easily grow much cheaper than they are now before we see any recovery - 23rd December
 * Winning fund strategies from Hindsight Capital - How uncannily prescient investors would have made themselves rich this year, with rationale that was available to investors back in January - 17th December
 * future for rehabilitated capitalism'' - Retail investors’ confidence in equities has been shattered after the disasters that have taken place in the past decade - 10th December
 * Euro enters zone of trendless volatility - Anyone betting on a broad recovery would be wise to hedge that with a bet on the euro to go down - 3rd December
 * Loss of confidence and conviction set to linger - Asset prices are set by swings in human emotion, but extremes of sentiment generally prefigure big snaps back - 28th November
 * Even with luck, a value strategy is not enough - The strategy Bill Miller used – buy cheap stocks – is totally inadequate for the changed reality of mass paying down of debts - 19th November
 * Relief at prospect of China’s ‘soft landing’ - If the next stimulus is a more muted affair than the drastic measures that followed Lehman, it will be welcome nevertheless - 12th November
 * Banks do their best to sink a battered Europe - The interconnected nature of the eurozone suggests there may be trouble ahead, and there is little that the politicians can do even if they pull together - 5th November
 * Success or failure of EU summit hinges on Italy - Everyone is worried that others will refuse to lend to the land of Berlusconi, and do not want to be the last one out – risking a run that would leave Italy insolvent - 29th October
 * Hope springs eternal on eurozone rescue trail - Even if disaster is averted, there is no chance of a truly conclusive resolution at this summit, and no chance of averting prolonged economic stagnation - 22nd October
 * Fulcrum of the axis of anxiety shifts to China - Amid all the deep reasons for concern, investors’ greatest fear, which drove the summer swoon in world stock markets, lies to the east - 18th October
 * Stocks in search of happy ending - On October 3 the index was at exactly the same level as it was on that day three years ago. But surely some things must have changed - 8th October
 * factor can make a fool of risk models'' - Bankers looking to excuse their mistakes applied the black swan notion to very predictable events - 30th September
 * End need not be nigh if we heed lesson of 2008 - Perhaps inspired by the split by REM, the band who provided a soundtrack to the youth of my generation, many seem to believe it’s the end of the world - 24th September
 * Leadership needed to stave off fresh meltdown - We have been here before but the differences between 2007-2008 and now should prompt greater concern than the similarities - 5th August
 * with ETFs lies in their advantages'' - With these instruments, every retail investor with internet access can make their own attempt at being a macro hedge fund manager, but this also hints at their problems - 27th May
 * Washington to act'' - The greatest import of S&P’s move could be political - 19th April
 * analysis probes modern contradictions'' - There are several inconsistencies in the equities, sovereign debt and emerging markets, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is clearly responsible for all of them - 16th April
 * money is burning emerging market fingers'' - The US standoff over the budget and possibility it will lag behind in raising rates is tugging dollar down, but it is also the market’s best way to express inflation fears - 9th April
 * punch bowl has to go but the timing is key'' - Either the economy keeps improving, in which case the punch bowl will go and stocks will slow down; or the economy slows down and the punch bowl stays in place – but stocks will slow down - 1st April
 * of fresh crisis dwells in house prices'' - It would be best to let market do what the laws of economics dictate that they should do, and obey gravity, but it is not clear that the financial system could withstand this - 26th March
 * truly sobering week for the markets'' - John Authers on a series of alarms for investors - 12th March
 * toxic combination of inflation and deflation'' - There is no reason why western deflation cannot coexist with resource inflation in the emerging world, so the debate over which we should fear most is far from over - 26th February
 * finds a reason for active fund managers'' - John Authers’ explanation for active management’s persistence has centred on inertia, ignorance and the incentives on intermediaries but he has been proved at least partially wrong - 18th February
 * redeeming argument for the carry trade'' - The strategy can be seen as an asset class and as an ongoing investment for regular retail investors and it might even help resolve the world’s economic imbalances - 29th January
 * grapples with collective action issue'' - Putting together a funding vehicle that can get threatened countries through the crisis might be the kind of drastic pre-commitment that allows participants to overcome their problems - 15th January
 * currency puzzle irks emerging markets'' - 8th January



Articles: 2010

 * awash with cash still fear the worst'' - Earnings have recovered but no one is spending - 27th November
 * to make system safer looks to have been lost'' - Regulators can argue that they had no choice but to be lenient when banks’ very survival seemed in doubt - 18th September
 * BP imbroglio raises broader questions'' - The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico long ago took on all the trappings of tragedy, and it has produced great sound and fury - 19th June
 * for Indian equities to woo middle class'' - Shares are still perceived as risky by the small proportion of the population that can afford them - 16th January



Articles: 2009

 * I called the rally wrong - and here's why'' - I did not believe US banks could muddle through and did not imagine China could rebound as strong as ever - 1st November
 * of maturity in developing economies'' - The authorities in the emerging world have shown that they can survive a crisis, but they are uneasy at money pouring in - 24th October
 * to take stock of it all'' - The future of investing: After a crisis that overturned assumptions, fund managers have to think afresh about the basis on which they buy and sell - 15th October
 * of common sense over benchmarks'' - One shift in investing’s future is more or less assured – institutions and retail savers will change the way they judge fund managers - 3rd October
 * new model for markets'' - Investment theory: After a global crisis that laid bare deficiencies in long-held assumptions about how efficiently markets function, attempts are under way to rejig previous thinking or adopt entirely different approaches – but no outcome is likely to provide so clean and simple a template - 29th September
 * risky revival'' - Stock markets: As traders celebrate big price rallies, sceptics argue that the upturn may be unsustainable – an incipient bubble basedon cheap credit backed by government money - 26th September
 * of Vietnam war still provides lessons'' - What Robert McNamara learned from a lifetime of life-and-death decisions is also a great guide for investors - 11th July
 * balancing act for the world economy'' - Remember the Goldilocks economy? Right up until the credit crisis, Goldilocks lent her name to a theory that the economy was “not too hot, not too cold”, permitting stable growth - 27th June
 * goings on in the commodities show''There are two ways to explain the rise in commodity prices, which now far outstrips the rally in equities - 12th June
 * equities'' - After the emotional extremes of the past two years, panic has given way to relief and a pause for thought - 4th June
 * keep things cheap and cheerful for now'' - After the panic of last autumn, and the economic freefall that followed it, markets are steadily returning to normal. Is this a good or bad thing? - 30th May
 * baseball stats, bond risks are hard to fathom'' - In the same way that baseball statistics cannot be applied to cricket, looking at the UK or ratings agencies reports does not help to gauge US Treasuries’ risk - 16th May
 * joined-up data for a realistic forecast'' - More accurate and farsighted earnings estimates could have punctured the  bubble of overconfidence of the past decade - 9th May
 * Spectre of rising bond yields looms over rally - The rally in world stocks is into its third month. One question dwarfs all others: is this a new bull market, or just a rally within the bear market? - 9th May
 * The heavy cost of the principal-agent divide - The separation from risk is among the many problems to be solved as the world’s financial architecture is redesigned - 2nd May
 * Bonds not yet due reversal of fortunes - The trend downwards in yields has been consistent, a pattern that is different from the stock market - 25th April
 * raising hints at a return to normality'' - Now that debt has returned to a more realistic price, companies find that they do not have enough capital and need to raise new equity - 18th April
 * for thought in Last Supper quiz'' - The world has entered what many of its population regard as a holy period, at a time when the markets are rallying after a period of great fear. So, once more, it is a good juncture for reflection - 11th April
 * quite Bretton Woods'' - The lasting lesson of this G20 is that emerging markets are ever more important - 4th April
 * studies shine some light on the credit crisis'' - Posterity may yet turn the Geithner plan into the definitive study of adverse selection - 28th March
 * to avoid a pension catastrophe'' - For now, the best way for those without excess cash might be to put money away regularly each month and rebalance between asset classes each year as retirement approaches - 21st March
 * still missing entertainment value'' - The mere fact that markets could bounce so sharply this week suggests that confusion still reigns and we are still in a bear market - 14th March
 * baby boomers will put their faith in bonds'' - Let down by equities, those about to retire could ensure that the asset class takes a long time to recover - 10th March
 * fear'' - Even former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has said that nationalisation may be needed - 28th February
 * retain a ray of hope for investors'' - It is good to know that dividends cannot be produced by an accounting sleight of hand - 21st February
 * is alive'' - Various analysts think they see signs of a relative recovery. John Authers asks, are they right, or is this merely a case of hope springing eternal throughout the economic winter? - 14th February
 * ‘cunning plan’'' - The unveiling of the financial rescue was the latest incident in which traders convinced themselves that a ‘cunning plan’ would resolve the banking crisis, without pain, only to relapse in disappointment - 12th February
 * in the wreckage'' - The scale of last year’s sell-off and the confusion it continues to generate in markets may create opportunities - 7th February
 * from the irrational'' - We can always rely on human irrationality. The question is whether it’s predictable enough for the rest of us to take advantage - 30th January
 * regulatory middle way'' - The Greenspan free-market model of light regulation and easy money when things get tough looks over - 24th January
 * bonds nobody wants to buy'' - Current Fed policy implies that at some point before long, deflation will turn to the risk of a severe recurrence of inflation. And bonds, at that point, could fall drastically - 17th January
 * on the road to rock bottom'' - Indicators that flashed trouble before the crisis now suggest it could even be time to buy. Others are contradictory. Even so, history may be our guide, so it is worth looking at the precedents - 10th January
 * this is like 1932, there will be hope as well as pain'' - An explosive rally at some point is possible, simply because record amounts of money are sitting in bonds and cash - 3rd January



Articles: 2008

 * clouds loom in the investment crystal ball'' - After such a tumultuous year, what may 2009 hold and will any recovery in equities  only be achieved once the credit market improves - 27th December 2008
 * enriched by common sense'' - Hindsight Capital’s success for 2008 tell us is that strategies based on common sense, consistently held, tend to work out in the end. You just need patience to wait for reality to catch up with unrealistic prices - 20th December 2008
 * strong contenders for mistake of the year'' - Not everything that happened this year was inevitable says - 13th December 2008
 * Eyes on the renminbi - With the world’s economy so connected, we must all pay attention to even the smallest moves in China’s currency - 6th December 2008
 * Low yield bonds - With the global economy sinking and deflation looming, low bond yields are part of the solution - by Michael Mackenzie, 1st December 2008
 * fright'' - Fear, left unchecked, can beget true damage to the real world - 22nd November 2008
 * downside of fleeing the beast of deflation'' - Regulators are now convinced that deflation is the chief enemy and while they throw everything at it, they must not ignore the threat of inflation - 15th November 2008
 * Elusive emotional intelligence - When faced with scary events such as the January stock market swoon or the oil bubble, we need to keep our emotions disengaged - 8th November 2008
 * markets’ no-lose election'' - Whoever wins on Tuesday, markets should have what they want – a leader with political capital - 1st November 2008
 * carries a risk for emerging markets'' - Chaos theory holds that a butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo could cause a tornado in Texas. The analogy is relevant for investors. There is chaos in the markets - 25th October 2008
 * funds poised for harsh phase of evolution'' - Hedge funds, as the Galapagos islands of the financial services industry face a new phase of evolution – in a far more hostile environment - 18th October 2008
 * the harsh lessons of history to find value'' - Stock market conditions look ever more like the 1930s and Benjamin Graham’s book looks highly relevant now - 11th October 2008
 * game plays out to bitter end'' - Economic data and falling commodity prices suggest the world is in for a recession, probably quite a bad one - 4th October 2008
 * times for true believers in a bull run'' - The markets believe that a US recession would be worse for the rest of the world than for the US - 27th September 2008
 * regulation of financial markets'' - If laws are not strict enough, the credit bubble shows that markets cannot be trusted to regulate themselves - 20th September 2008
 * We are now looking at a truly global slowdown'' - US dollar stands to benefit from a true global recession, by acting as a safe heaven - 6th September 2008
 * woes put paid to decoupling thesis'' - While the Fed’s medicine seems to have kept economic activity going, it has sideswiped Europe - 30th August 2008
 * short-sellers not the root of all evil'' - If the rally was not caused by short-sellers struggling to buy back stock, it is hard to see what did cause it - 23rd August 2008
 * train crash’s final impact is still awaited'' - It takes time for bankers to understand what has hit them and then to adjust their behaviour - 16th August 2008
 * Jim Cramer's TV outburst that will last for ages - Cramer Day is upon us. This weekend marks the anniversary of former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer’s outburst on CNBC that the Federal Reserve was “asleep” and that there was “Armageddon” in the fixed income markets - 2nd August 2008
 * Bank stocks mauled but back from the abyss - Investors in bank stocks have stared into the abyss. Have they touched bottom? - 26th July 2008
 * New US president inherits a sea change in policy - Some of history’s greatest economic shifts are closely associated with politicians and big political swings - 19th July 2008
 * Difficulties in identifying breed of bear markets - Bears come in many species. Some are vast and vicious hunters, living off raw meat. Some eat fruit. And some, like koalas and pandas, are not bears at all. - 12th July 2008
 * FTSE’s two faces provide mirror for global themes - Self-deprecating Brits will have difficulty arguing that the UK leads the way in many areas these days – reality TV and binge drinking notwithstanding - 20th June 2008
 * Oil, dollar traders feed each other crude lines - Every generation has its own satirists with a unique finger on the pulse. For the US, at present, the ruling comedians, appearing late every night on cable, are Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert - 13th June 2008
 * For good or ill, banks’ fate tied to wider market - It is almost like a bank run. Investors have lost their confidence in banks - 6th June 2008
 * Investors should look to lady luck to provide - Last week, I was asked to give a speech on the big picture for markets. This had me worried - 30th May 2008
 * Fall in US house prices heralds problems for all - Worriers are spoilt for choice at present. But there is probably nothing investors should worry about more than the future for US house prices. This applies even for those who live nowhere near the US - 23rd May 2008
 * Classic films shed light on commodities boom - In Jean de Florette, a great French film of the 1980s, Gerard Depardieu inherits a farm in rural France but fails in his dream to grow flowers there because jealous neighbours have blocked the secret spring on which it relies for water - 9th May 2008
 * When it's time to ask for whom the bell curve tolls - “Do you know what a bell curve is? It’s a curve, shaped like a bell.” London mayoral candidate Boris Johnson, speaking at the Oxford Union in 1985 - 2nd May 2008
 * Even the great investors get the right bets wrong - We all make mistakes, even if our names are Buffett or Soros. But when great investors such as Warren Buffett and George Soros make a mistake, the lessons for the rest of us are so much more interesting - 25th April 2008
 * So is there anything out of the question? - Passover starts tonight. The world’s Jews will gather to commemorate the Hebrews’ flight from Egypt and eat a stylised dinner known as a “seder” - 18th April 2008
 * The end of the beginning of the credit crisis - It is now a month since Bear Stearns told the New York Federal Reserve that it was about to file for bankruptcy protection, triggering a market drama. Wall Street now hails the event as the beginning of the end of the credit crisis - 11th April 2008
 * Think the worst and then prepare your strategy - It is time to copy all good business school students and practise Realistic Worst Case Scenario investing - 4th April 2008
 * Contrary to your expectations - Brian: “You’re all different!” The crowd: “Yes, we ARE all different!” Man in crowd: “I’m not.” The crowd: “Ssssh!” (Monty Python’s Life of Brian). Everyone wants to be a contrarian. But Monty Python showed that we cannot all be contrarian at once. That is why I fear a popular contrarian investment call now is doomed to fail - 29th March 2008
 * It's the death of regulation as we know it, again - This has been an unholy Holy Week. The panic triggered by the near collapse and subsequent rescue of Bear Stearns was the most terrifying moment for world markets for decades - 22nd March 2008
 * Imposing order on chaos - We are always tempted to try to impose order on chaos and find a common thread to link disparate events. This is a human need and, as I wrote a few weeks ago, it can lead us into mistakes - 15th March 2008
 * Investors should pick a reason for commodities' run - We are on the horns of a commodity dilemma. If we believe the judgment of the credit and stock markets, then the US financial services industry, the engine of the world's markets, is in a critical state. Meanwhile, the bond and currency markets show that confidence in the US economy has collapsed - 8th March 2008
 * Seize the moment, not the momentum - It is an inconvenient truth, but there is money in momentum - 23rd February 2008
 * Why, in times of doubt, it can pay to sit it out - Masterly inactivity has much to recommend it. In times of extreme stress and volatility, it is a difficult strategy to maintain. Faced with the reality of losing money, our instinct is to do something - anything - to avert it - 16th February 2008
 * Be wary of judging the markets at face value - Are stocks cheap? It is an endless, complicated and unanswerable debate, so let me start by short-circuiting some of the first steps - 9th February 2008
 * Wishful thinking will not write a happy ending - We are all burdened with an instinct not to let the facts get in the way of a good story. Psychologists say that humans have an in-built predisposition to explain the world in terms of stories, and to try to fit disparate facts into an overarching narrative - 2nd February 2008
 * I've got a funny feeling about negative sentiment - When a market reporter cannot explain why the market has just moved, there is always one easy candidate to blame: sentiment - 26th January 2008
 * Place your bets for a recession, if it's not too late - Let us assume that the world's economy is sliding into a recession. We are in good company, as markets have aggressively moved to discount such a possibility since the beginning of this young year. How can we make money out of it? - 12th January 2008
 * House prices are down, but we're not out of the woods - Concern about the affordability of housing in the US is nothing new. One of the classics of American literature goes into detail on the subject - 5th January 2008



Financial Times: ‘Last Word’
Column name:

Remit/Info: Fund management

Section: Fund management

Role: Investment Editor

Pen-name:

Email: [mailto:john.authers@ft.com john.authers@ft.com]

Website: FTFm / Last Word

Commissioning editor:

Day published:

Regularity: Monthly

Column format:

Average length:



Articles:

 * Where can asset allocation go from here? - So, after all that, are markets efficient? The last year reminded us all that markets are not efficient in any meaningful sense of the word that a layman might use - 12th April
 * time with Wall St going full circle'' - The next logical point for stocks to come to rest would be 1994, the last time the Fed got ahead of the curve - 15th March 2009
 * – a poor guide to the future'' - The release of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook raises the question of whether such surveys are any use – John Authers finds at least one intact theory from last year - 15th February 2009
 * Who will survive last year’s carnage? - The results are in for 2008, the hardest year in the experience of virtually anyone currently in the fund management business. Who is likely to survive? - 18th January 2009
 * Annus horribilis for the star investors - Bill Miller of Legg Mason, by his own admission, did spectacularly badly over the past year, an analysis of where he went wrong reveals a number of bad strategies - 14th December 2008
 * Poor performing CTAs in the spotlight - Equity managers long ago had to put up with academic research that showed they did not do as well as a passive index - 9th November 2008
 * It could get ugly for fund managers - The long-awaited second-order effects of the credit crisis are here; equities have crashed, as have all hopes that the world can avoid a recession of some severity - 12th October 2008
 * Style and fundamentals still important - Arguments about styles and sectors seem a little beside the point when the market is convulsed the way it has been in the last week - 14th September 2008
 * Value investors' day will come again - These are lousy times for value managers. Once growth started to outperform value in the summer of 2006, it had stoked up its outperformance to 20 per cent by the time the oil market turned in mid-July - 11th August 2008
 * Difficult times can test judgment - What do we want of a fund manager? Naturally we want them to make us money. But how can we infer from history their chances of doing so in the future? - 13th July 2008
 * Goldman’s intriguing replication idea - Any attempt to bring hedge fund investing to the masses could make ripples for the fund management industry - 15th June 2008
 * Quants adapting to a Darwinian analysis - Quants have a future. But the disaster that befell quantitative equity funds amid the credit crisis last August has shaken the investment community to the core, and is changing investors’ understanding of how markets work - 18th May 2008
 * The observer effect on commodities - It is fashionable to apply physics to investing. One axiom that looks relevant to investment in commodities is Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle - 20th April 2008
 * The debate over fundamental indexing - Fundamental indexing is one of the biggest ideas to emerge in the world of investing in recent years - 31st March 2008
 * Two styles of investing - There are many ways that active managers can try to run their portfolio, but two styles have come to predominate: “value” and “growth” - 5th March 2008



News & updates:
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