David Smith



Profile:
Full name: David Smith

Area of interest: Economics

Journals: The Sunday Times, Economics UK (blog)

Email: [mailto:david.smith@sunday-times.co.uk mailto:david.smith@sunday-times.co.uk] | [mailto:david@economicsuk.com david@economicsuk.com]

Website/blog: TimesOnline

Blog: EconomicsUK

Representation:

Network:



Biography:
Education: Universities of Wales, Oxford and London

Career: Lloyds Bank; the Henley Centre for Forecasting; Now! Magazine; Financial Weekly; The Times; also writes monthly columns for Professional Investor, British Industry and The Manufacturer and makes regular contributor to the CBI's Business Voice

Current position: The Sunday Times: Economics editor (since 1989), assistant editor and policy adviser

Viewpoints/Insight:

Controversy:

TV/Radio: Regular broadcasts

Awards/Honours: Harold Wincott Award - Senior Financial Journalist of the Year, 2004

Advisory posts:

Other:



Books & Debate:

 * North and South, 1989 (Penguin) ISBN 0140228438
 * The Rise and Fall of Monetarism, 1991 (Penguin economics) ISBN 0140135278
 * Mrs Thatcher's Economics: Her Legacy, 1992 (Heinemann Educational) ISBN 0435330187
 * Will Euope Work?, 1999 (Profile Books) ISBN 1861971028
 * Free Lunch: Easily Digestible Economics, 2003 (Profile Books) ISBN 1861975066

Latest work: The Dragon and the Elephant: China, India and the New World Order OCLC 77797451, 2007 - see also bookblog

Speaking/Appearances:

Current debate: 

The Sunday Times: 'Economic Outlook'
Column remit: Economics

Section: Business

Role: Commentator

Pen-name:

Email: david.smith@sunday-times.co.uk

Website: TimesOnline

Commissioning editor:

Day published: Sunday

Regularity: Weekly

Column format:

Average length:



Articles:

 * tide of imports hits export-led recovery'' - Britain’s trade position has taken a turn for the worse. The great rebalancing of the economy is not happening - 13th February 2011
 * for rate rises as inflation hits home'' - Reports of the recovery’s death appear to have been greatly exaggerated, with three key sectors bouncing back after a weather-hit December - 6th February 2011
 * woes leave us with a steeper climb'' - The economy is 4.4% smaller than before the recession. The climb back up gets a lot harder if you lose your footing in the snow - 30th January 2011
 * rates won’t save the Bank’s reputation'' - Anything the Bank of England does now would be regarded as a belated response to an inflation problem it failed to predict - 23rd January 2011
 * Asia keep pulling the world to recovery?'' - In the late 1980s there was talk of Japan overtaking America — then its bubble economy burst. Could a similar fate befall China? - 16th January 2011
 * interest rates fail to crank up bank lending'' - Despite rising inflation, an upward nudge of the 0.5% Bank rate remains unlikely as banks pay off their debts rather than lend - 9th January 2011
 * the crossroads of inflation and growth'' - Inflation will be a headache for the Bank, but the rise in private investment is encouraging. Will King be forced to raise rates sharply? - 2nd January 2011
 * failed to spot inflation surge'' - The British economy performed better than many expected it to this year. David Smith looks at which pundits got it right - 26th December 2010
 * break-up talk may scupper lending revival'' - The three worries for 2011 are: the eurozone derailing a recovery, spending cuts and banks' inability to support the economy - 19th December 2010
 * countries pump up inflation for the poor'' - In many emerging economies the problem is inflation rather than deflation, while in Britain the problem will get worse before it gets better - 12th December 2010
 * down the pound to help the recovery'' - As manufacturing leads the economy out of recession, the pound’s under-valuation against the euro must be maintained - 4th December 2010
 * of shoppers finds new ways of growing'' - Exports and investment are starting to replace consumer and government spending as the drivers of economic growth in Britain - 28th November 2010
 * to keep euro jigsaw from falling apart'' - Germany has to ease up to make the euro work, otherwise it — and not Ireland, Greece or Spain — will cause a break-up - 21st November 2010
 * has the power to turn on lending taps'' - To ease an ongoing credit crunch, the Bank of England should extend the period over which official support for banks is withdrawn - 14th November 2010
 * there be another minor miracle on jobs?'' - The recession was deeper than its predecessors but employment has held up well. Could the private sector now offset public job cuts? - 7th November 2010
 * will sober up an unbalanced economy'' - Balancing the government’s books and balancing trade should be part of the same story. Conditions are in place for just that - 24th October 2010
 * best chance to put a lid on our debt'' - After the cuts are announced, some will say the government has gone too far, while others will be clamouring for even bigger spending cuts - 17th October 2010
 * will also be hammered by the cuts'' - Not only do firms have to create jobs to offset government cuts, they also have to prepare for their own setbacks in spending review - 10th October 2010
 * We are not turning into the Japanese'' - Japan teaches us to introduce quantative easing and not raise rates which would tighten monetary policy prematurely - 3rd October 2010
 * destined to be stuck in the mud'' - Even though property prices are recovering, volumes are much more important — and they remain very low, to the detriment of the economy - 26th September 2010
 * the case for a rise in interest rates'' - Inflation has been above 2% for more than 75% of the months since 2005. More than a dip is needed to ensure the Bank’s credibility - 19th September 2010
 * alternative to the bitter pills on spending'' - There is no alternative to the bitter pills on spending, no matter how much Ed Balls insists that there is no crisis in our public finances - 11th September 2010
 * picture shows that the recovery is intact'' - The markets are confused as recent data that has emerged paints a conflicting picture of the world’s economic recovery - 5th September 2010
 * expect a return to the golden age'' - The period of moderation up to 2007 was exceptional. Public finances should be robust enough to withstand the next downturn - 15th August 2010
 * talk does more damage than cuts'' - Ministers should stop exaggerating austerity measures. It dents consumer confidence, which could restrict the recovery - 8th August 2010
 * fuels anxiety on recovery'' - A double whammy of weaker growth and higher inflation, forecast by the Bank of England, is set to shake the markets - 8th August 2010
 * many cooks will spoil monetary broth'' - The chancellor is no longer in charge. We now have economic policy by committee — and three committees, no less - 1st August 2010
 * leaps but it’s a creditless recovery'' - It is not entirely clear how growth can be so strong — gross domestic product rose 1.1% in the second quarter — with lending so weak - 25th July 2010
 * sector can create the 2m jobs that we need'' - It is in Britain's swiftly recovering private sector that the jobs will be found to prevent widespread unemployment - 18th July 2010
 * break up the euro, but not just yet'' - Logic says the euro cannot survive with its current membership intact. But this would be a bad time for anybody to leave - 11th July 2010
 * to worry about but not a double dip'' - Economies across the world remain in a state of turmoil, but the hard facts suggest a double-dip recession remains highly unlikely - 4th July 2010
 * magic, real deficit is revealed'' - For the first time the official forecast for Britain’s economy will be produced by an independent body, the Office of Budget Responsibility - 13th June 2010
 * world’s glass is more than half full'' - Financial conditions in Britain are conducive to recovery. We should try to ensure they stay that way, at least for a while - 30th May 2010
 * rise would be one more headache for the Bank'' - The Office for Budget Responsibility will take a reasonable view of what the economy needs - but will it include 20% Vat? - 23rd May 2010
 * our way out the hard way'' -in an era of tax rises, Cutting the deficit will involve harder decisions than putting together a coalition agreement - 16th May 2010
 * anyone survive the deficit poisoned chalice?'' - The danger of the election result is that nobody will have the guts to tackle Britain's £163b black hole - 9th May 2010
 * error leaves us all fearing the hangover'' - Everybody knows we face a post-election hangover, but for most people it doesn’t feel that way - 2nd May 2010
 * mountain not as steep'' - Britain's predicted 1.3% growth this year is comfortably better than the eurozone and the average for advanced economies - 25th April 2010
 * man of Europe springs back into life'' - The flexibility that stood Britain in good stead before the crisis will still be an advantage as the economy moves out of it - 11th April 2010
 * let to make monkey of voters'' - Something strange has been happening, Tories made an announcement that sounded like a softening of the party’s fiscal stance - 4th April 2010
 * fog lifts but axe has to fall'' - If things continue to head in the direction of recent months, a resolution is in sight to the nightmare of Britain’s public finances - 28th March 2010
 * no harm’ should be Darling’s motto'' - Politics is not grown up enough for the Chancellor to set out in detail the spending cuts needed in the review that follows the election - 21st March 2010
 * exports may be cheap, but Europe is not buying'' - In the distant past, the monthly trade figures were regarded as the single most important barometer of the country’s health - 14th March 2010
 * woes are vote against Brown'' - The markets continue to believe a Labour victory, particularly a minority Labour government, would be very bad for Britain - 7th March 2010
 * mess around with inflation targets'' - Inflation-targeting, while far from flawless, has been the most effective model for UK monetary policy in modern times - 28th February 2010
 * ruins hide spare capacity'' - What does an economic wrecking ball look like? If you know, and can put a number on it, the BoE would love to hear from you - 14th February 2010
 * the knives to avoid a Greek tragedy'' - Tackling the deficit is one political priority. Getting growth going is another. Balancing the two will be tricky - 7th February 2010
 * is the cloud on the recovery’s horizon'' - The banks have their own debt hangover to deal with. One way they are doing so is by not lending enough into the economy - 31st January 2010
 * joy takes sting out of inflation misery'' - One door opens, another slams shut. Just as news on unemployment is getting better, inflation takes a turn for the worse - 24th January 2010
 * exports don’t bounce neither will the economy'' - It is the big question after any recession. Where will the growth come from? The answer has to be from exports - 17th January 2010
 * at 50% is a good way to kill the golden goose'' - Heaven knows what tricks Darling will be required to perform as polling day approaches. Just say no, Alistair - 10th January 2010
 * will tip economy to the east'' - The world economy is recovering but is heavily skewed towards emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil - 3rd January 2010
 * record breaking year - for all the wrong reasons'' - The biggest annual slide in the economy since the 1930s caught forecasters by surprise. We review their predictions - 27th December 2009
 * year could have been a lot worse'' - Anything could have happened to the banking system, an even worse crisis was averted, for which credit is due to authorities - 20th December 2009
 * strange case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Darling'' - Perhaps the real Chancellor got lost somewhere in Downing Street, diverted by a lot of Brown and a load of Balls - 13th December 2009
 * Darling’s balancing act: cut deficit or win votes'' - Will the markets be convinced by Alistair Darling's commitment to reduce Britain’s enormous budget deficit? - 6th December 2009
 * expect much blood from Darling's axe'' - Anybody expecting the chancellor to issue bloodcurdling warnings of how much pain is on the way, will be disappointed - 29th November 2009
 * nutters can relax – but only for a while'' - Abbott and Posen have different definitions of inflation nutters. Not everybody who worries about inflation meets the description - 22nd November 2009
 * says let’ s party like it’s 1994 again'' - How can we square the Bank of England’s upbeat forecast with governor’s relentlessly downbeat tone in presenting it? - 15th November 2009
 * the central banks blowing new bubbles?'' - The combination of near-zero rates, a weak dollar and the willingness of the authorities to support every market in sight is dangerous - 8th November 2009
 * should prime pump for another £30bn'' - The Bank has done £175bn of quantitative easing, and it has helped. But it's too early to ease off the accelerator just yet - 1st November 2009
 * may undershoot despite GDP setback'' - Time and again in this recession, the ONS has come up with gloomier gross domestic product numbers than anybody expected - 25th October 2009
 * market lift will keep unemployed below 3m'' - It should have been an easy tap-in, but the formal end of the recession has turned into a cliff-hanger - 18th October 2009
 * and spending squeeze will keep Bank rate low'' - Now the party conferences are over, do we know about how the budget deficit will be tackled? - 11th October 2009
 * time for Osborne to lift the Tory veil'' - There is a good chance Tories will form the next government, so there is added pressure to explain their economic policy - 4th October 2009
 * are still a nation of shoppers, not squirrels'' - Will we be spenders or savers? It is a big question for the economy, and for those relying on consumer demand - 27th September 2009
 * market must be as flexible on the way up'' - Unemployment up, wages down, or at least slowing to a record low. It is the story of Britain’s labour market now - 20th September 2009
 * Myners talks about his City role'' - In an interview with The Sunday Times, the City minister says taxpayers will make money from the government’s banking rescue - 13th September 2009
 * bankers and regulators, not the market'' - My view of markets is like Churchill’s view of democracy: their faults may be many but they beat the alternatives by far - 6th September 2009
 * surprises leave markets floating on air'' - One thing we have learnt during this crisis is that markets are skittish, and hugely influenced by confidence and mood - 30th August 2009
 * easing clips the wings of rising pound'' - As Oscar Wilde might have said, to mislead once is a misfortune, to do so twice smacks of carelessness - 9th August 2009
 * are hit hardest as jobs take a dive'' - Nearly a fifth of 18 to 24-year-olds in Britain are out of work, part of a 5m army of young unemployed across the European Union - 2nd August 2009
 * will surely rise to fill the Treasury hole'' - What will the inevitable tax rises that will accompany the cut on public spending mean for economy? - 26th July 2009
 * may be too weak to support the recovery'' - While business would like them to be going a lot faster, a gentle jog is all they can manage - 19th July 2009
 * outlook: Tear up the rulebook, it's all about borrowing'' - Luxury of deciding what to do about excessive lending will come later. But it is a new era - 12th July 2009
 * effect suggests recession dive is over'' - Honda supplied customers from stock, suspending production at its Swindon factory. Last month it restarted, and it is not alone - 5th July 2009
 * ahead is uncertain as talks turn to recovery'' - Optimism that the worst of the recession is over is giving way to uncertainty about what shape the recovery might take - 28th June 2009
 * must tackle public-sector blight'' - The Conservatives need to go further in reforming the public sector than merely relying on eyewateringly tight budgets - 14th June 2009
 * lending tap won't open for some time'' - With so much going on in politics, the economy has benefited from being out of the spotlight, with sterling rallying significantly - 7th June 2009
 * is no easy way out of the debt maze'' - Inflation and government debt are related. Some fear the government will seek to inflate its way out of its problems - 24th May 2009
 * consumers: down but not out'' - My sense is that the Bank of England, given a "glass half-full or glass half-empty" choice, had no incentive to be upbeat - 17th May 2009
 * the fall, how steep is the climb?'' - What kind of upturn can we expect when this is over — vigorous or insipid? - 10th May 2009
 * at the end of the tunnel'' - After a huge rush of events things have gone a bit quiet. It could be that nothing is happening, which would be worrying - 3rd May 2009
 * surgery still needed – and it is going to hurt'' - You should play the ball not the man. Attacking Alistair Darling does not come easy, even for hard-hearted commentators - 26th April 2009
 * tries to climb out of a hole'' - With the economy is in deep recession, the Chancellor has as much room for manoeuvre as an elephant in a Mini - 19th April 2009
 * needed for Ireland’s plight'' - Raising Vat was the first thing Howe did on entering the Treasury in 1979. Do you ever feel history might be repeating itself? - 12th April 2009
 * gives us less reason to wallow in the gloom'' - Brown would have found it harder to exercise his authority if Britain really was the sick man of the global economy - 5th April 2009
 * sink as world trade slumps'' - Leaders of countries representing 85% of the world economy should make a firm stand against protectionism, and mean it - 29th March 2009
 * door spins faster for unemployed'' - It is tempting to think there are no jobs around and that once you get handed the redundancy letter you might as well give up - 22nd March 2009
 * will need to act fast on inflation'' - The general feeling is that beyond the valley of temporarily falling prices lie the jagged peaks of a nasty inflation problem - 15th March 2009
 * injection means we are all monetarists now'' - None of us has seen rates this low. When the storm passes, we may never see them as low again - 8th March 2009
 * everybody gets skittled by recession'' - Some parts of the economy are relatively recession-proof, and others will emerge not just standing but stronger - 1st March 2009
 * deep, what will bring us back to life?'' - Economics has not covered itself with glory in predicting the situation we find ourselves in. The bankers' and economists' models did not work - 15th February 2009
 * the UK consumer really flat on his back?'' - One of the stories of 2009 will be that consumers can buy cheaply, if they choose to, and not just at the discounters - 8th February 2009
 * can’t pump up this economy'' - A disparaging view of Davos would be that if hot air alone could reflate the global economy things would be looking up quite soon - 1st February 2009
 * is not Iceland. Is EU the next Japan?'' - If there was a currency I would be worried about at the moment, however, it would be the euro - 25th January 2009
 * the horizon for an exit strategy'' - Assuming near-zero rates are not normal, how do you get back to normal without stifling the recovery? - 18th January 2009
 * out of step with Bank'' - A Tory shadow chancellor should be well regarded by the City. Instead, Alistair Darling is winning grudging approval - 11th January 2009
 * monsters battle to settle our future'' - Lovers of Hollywood B movies will recognise that the battle between King Kong and Godzilla will determine the outcome for 2009 - 4th January 2009
 * of 2008 causes havoc for predictions'' - There were a number of ways the crisis could have played out. The route it ended up taking was close to the worst - 28th December 2008
 * in reverse despite Bank’s cuts'' - Government intervention and support, for three decades regarded as off limits, has made an extraordinary come-back - 21st December 2008
 * time to reach for euro lifeline'' - Britain tends to turn to Europe at times of trouble, with disastrous consequences - 14th December 2008
 * collapse oiled the wheels'' - The more the financial crisis dragged on, the more oil bulls became certain the price of crude would continue to rise. That seemed illogical to me - 7th December 2008
 * spending cuts will get us out of this black hole'' - The Treasury and independent experts debate whether filling a "black hole" in the government’s projections needs a few billion of tax rises - 30th November 2008
 * risks drowning in a sea of red ink'' - Tomorrow it will be hard to put a cigarette paper between Brown and Darling - 23rd November 2008
 * Darling needs to do more about inheritance tax'' - With the average detached home in the southeast still worth about £400,000 according to Halifax, you only need about £200,000 in savings and investments before your heirs will have to pay tax at 40% - 23rd November 2008
 * on ropes as Bank throws in the towel'' - Gordon Brown is making political hay out of the crisis but he is not carrying the Bank with him. For years central-bank independence was his proudest achievement as chancellor. Now I get people asking whether it was such a good idea after all - 16th November 2008
 * time for wimps as history boys take over'' - The Bank has to cut more aggressively now to get the same effect as it did two years ago - 9th November 2008
 * window is shut but rate cuts will help'' - 2nd November 2008
 * recessions hurt, but big ones are scary'' - 26th October 2008
 * rescue won't stop the misery index rising'' - 19th October 2008
 * for a bold cut in interest rates'' - The days when a deft touch on the tiller by the Bank of England sent powerful shockwaves through the economy are long gone - 5th October 2008
 * this is the bust, why wasn’t it preceded by a bigger economic boom?'' - 28th September 2008
 * party is over for shrinking City'' - 21st September 2008
 * is poised to peak and then slide'' - 14th September 2008
 * pounding but not a bloodbath'' - The tide has gone out on sterling and, to paraphrase Warren Buffett, it does not appear to have been wearing any bathing trunks - 7th September 2008
 * should slip off inflation shackles'' - There is no doubt that many sectors of the economy could do with the tonic of an interest-rate cut, but how could it be justified? - 31st August 2008
 * wilts as battle over economy looms'' - 24th August 2008
 * bed of nails we all have to lie on'' - Economies generally obey the bicycle theory - if they are not moving forward they are at risk of falling over - 16th August 2008
 * the economy grow even if consumers wilt?'' - The fall in the oil price from farcical to merely ridiculous levels, with other commodity prices easing in tandem, is good news - 27th July 2008



Economics UK:
Blog name: David Smith's Economics UK

Column remit: To "provide knowledge and stimulate debate on economics, for business people, students, economists and others"

Section:

Role: Blogger

Pen-name:

Email: david@economicsuk.com

Blogsite: Economics UK

Commissioning editor:

Day published:

Regularity: Frequent, approx. tri-weekly

Column format:

Average length:



Articles:


