David Smith



Profile:
Full name: David Henry Smith

Area of interest: Economics

Journals/Organisation: The Sunday Times | Economics UK (blog)

Email: [mailto:david.smith@sunday-times.co.uk david.smith@sunday-times.co.uk] | [mailto:david@economicsuk.com david@economicsuk.com]

Personal website:

Website: http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Economy

Blog: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog

Representation: http://www.speakers.co.uk/our-speakers/profile/David_Smith

Networks: http://twitter.com/#!/dsmitheconomics



Biography:
About: Economics Editor of The Sunday Times since 1989; also its assistant editor, policy adviser and chief leader-writer, and maintains his own economics blog, Economics UK

Education: Universities of Wales, Oxford and London

Career: Lloyds Bank; the Henley Centre for Forecasting; Now! Magazine; Financial Weekly; The Times

Current position/role: The Sunday Times: Economics editor, assistant editor and policy adviser


 * also writes/written for: Monthly columns for Professional Investor, British Industry and The Manufacturer and regular contributor to the CBI's Business Voice

Other roles/Main role:

Other activities:

Disclosures:

Viewpoints/Insight:

Broadcast media: Regular broadcasts

Video:

Controversy/Criticism:

Awards/Honours: Harold Wincott Award for Senior Financial Journalist of the Year, 2004; British Press Awards - Highly Commended Feature Writer of the Year, 2008; British Press Awards - Shortlisted in Finance/Business Category, 2007

Scoops:

Other:



Books & Debate:

 * North and South, 1989 (Penguin) ISBN 0140228438
 * The Rise and Fall of Monetarism, 1991 (Penguin economics) ISBN 0140135278
 * Mrs Thatcher's Economics: Her Legacy, 1992 (Heinemann Educational) ISBN 0435330187
 * Will Euope Work?, 1999 (Profile Books) ISBN 1861971028
 * Free Lunch: Easily Digestible Economics, 2003 (Profile Books) ISBN 1861975066

Latest work: The Dragon and the Elephant: China, India and the New World Order OCLC 77797451, 2007 - see also bookblog

Speaking/Appearances:

Debate: 

The Sunday Times:
Column name: Economic Outlook

Remit/Info: Economics

Section: Business

Role: Commentator

Pen-name:

Email: [mailto:david.smith@sunday-times.co.uk david.smith@sunday-times.co.uk]

Website: http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Economy

Commissioning editor:

Day published: Sunday

Regularity: Weekly

Column format:

Average length:



Articles:

 * We tried corsets once and they didn’t work - Any attempts by the Bank of England's to rein back mortgage lending are doomed - 25th May 2014
 * Fog descends on Old Lady of Threadneedle St - Cast your mind back to July 2007. Roger Federer won Wimbledon for the fifth time and Venus... - 18th May 2014
 * House price hysteria is not justified — for now - Prices in the West Midlands are yet to recover from their 2007 peak - 11th May 2014
 * Go-it-alone Britons hold key to interest rates - Is the sharp rise in self-employement a reason for optimism or not? - 27th April 2014
 * Can Scots be trusted to pay back their debt? - Scotland's share of UK debt could be as high as 86% of its GDP - 20th April 2014
 * Our green shoots put France’s in the shade - Warnings by the French-run IMF that Britain is playing with fire have been proved wrong - 13th April 2014
 * Balance of payments sinks in sea of red ink - We are relying on the rest of the European Union to fund our current account deficit - 6th April 2014
 * Falling inflation brings back feel-good factor - Households would be better able to take a Bank rate increase with real wages rising - 30th March 2014
 * Exports take the shine off Osborne's recovery - The budget did little to address the UK's shrinking share of world trade - 23rd March 2014
 * Chancellor, we need to talk about productivity - Budgets come and go but this one needs to deliver - 16th March 2014
 * Forget big tax cuts, the budget box is empty - Ten days from now, George Osborne will deliver his fifth budget, so where is all the speculation? - 9th March 2014
 * Enjoy the recovery; it's better than you think - The chancellor is playing down the economic resurgence but we don't have to - 2nd March 2014
 * Fuzzy guidance points to higher interest rates - Some time ago I developed a theme called the seven ages of monetary policy. The story started... - 16th February 2014
 * Squeeze is over — now for fatter pay packets - Real wages have declined 6% since the onset of the recession - 9th February 2014
 * Recipe to give regions a bite of London’s cake - The regions need more investment, more innovation and more infrastructure - 2nd February 2014
 * Carney won’t fall into this trap again - No more crystal balls for the Governor as his forward guidance comes unstuck - 26th January 2014
 *  What’s good for London is also good for Britain - New research shows the capital is not growing at the expense of the regions - 12th January 2014
 * Now let’s see pay and investment fly higher - This year should see a modest growth in take-home pay - 5th January 2014
 * A year of surprises, but good ones - After a shaky start, 2013 saw the UK economy emerge from the shadow of the credit crisis - 29th December 2013
 * How London grabbed biggest slice of the cake - I’m spoilt for choice, with the Federal Reserve’s tapering decision, good news on inflation and... - 22nd December 2013
 * For Carney, the glass is more than half full - Bank of England governor toasts to sparkling prospects for UK economy - 15th December 2013
 * Growth up, deficit down — what’s not to like? - Big set-piece economic events such as budgets and autumn statements are like chocolate... - 8th December 2013
 * George saves his job, now full steam ahead - If the chancellor had not delivered growth he might have had a fight on to keep his job - 1st December 2013
 * Cash has been king, but now we need investment - Government spending can never be a substitute for business investment - 24th November 2013
 * Bank won’t be lifting rates any time soon - Will Mark Carney adapt his forward guidance as the recovery picks up pace? - 17th November 2013
 * Calm down, dears: debt isn’t fuelling this boom - The myth that the recovery is built on consumer spending needs debunking - 10th November 2013
 * Jobs vs growth — the tug of war to decide rates - Unemployment may fall back to 7% even if productivity does not pick up markedly - 27th October 2013
 * Like it or not, Britain is hitched to high inflation - We like to top any European league - but perhaps not the league for rates of inflation - 20th October 2013
 * Help to Buy’s big test: to shift more houses - Ask any builder why housebuilding has been weak in recent years and he will put finance at the top - 13th October 2013
 * Osborne boldly goes for a budget surplus - The Tories are aiming to take us into black by the end of the next Parliament in 2020 - 6th October 2013
 * The Bank wot won it? Not until firms invest - Maybe it is the Mark Carney effect - 29th September 2013
 * Separate Scotland will have to take the low road - 22nd September 2013
 * This squeeze on pay is not about to go away - Although inflation outstrips wage rises, take-home earnings in Britain are still high - 15th September 2013
 * Roll over Plan B and tell Ed Balls the news - Growth is back with strong numbers. This has killed the argument for a fiscal U-turn - 8th September 2013
 * World’s hares start to run out of breath - In a surprising reversal of fortune, the developed economies are outpaging emerging markets - 1st September 2013
 * Return of growth can’t cover over deficit hole - Osborne will not be off the hook without proof that borrowing is decisively on the way down - 25th August 2013
 * Carney fights the market but there’s no knockout - For forward guidance to work, the new Bank governor has to calm talk of higher rates - 18th August 2013
 * This flowering recovery needs tender loving care - Despite signs of momentum, the Bank’s clear message is that rate rises are a long way off - 11th August 2013
 * Dull, plodding growth is just what we need now - A steady rate of 0.6% would mean our ability to grow had not been damaged for good - 28th July 2013
 * We’ll need more from Carney’s box of tricks - Forward guidance on rates is worth trying, but the new governor may need to dig even deeper - 21st July 2013
 * Weak pound fails to put wind in exporters’ sails - Exploiting new markets requires investment and risk-taking, which companies are keen to avoid - 14th July 2013
 * Lift-off won’t be aborted by higher interest rates - People have hung on for long enough. Some of them are now deciding to spend anyway - 7th July 2013
 * Prices up, lending weak — all yours, Mr Carney - The new Bank governor faces serious must wean the markets off quantitative easing - 23rd June 2013
 * Productivity is down but don’t count it out - Output per hour has not climbed back to its pre-crisis level, but the weakness is cyclical - 16th June 2013
 * Penny drops on how to squeeze spending - Osborne should control the £352bn expenditure that falls outside government departments - 9th June 2013
 * Don’t assume Carney will print more money - More quantitative easing would probably not be warranted if growth tops 0.5% - 26th May 2013
 * King clocks out with a spring in his step - The outgoing Bank governor predicted stronger growth and weaker inflation. He may be right - 19th May 2013
 * Money printing drives share price boom - The stock market rally is fuelled by the expectation of more quantitative easing - 12th May 2013
 * UK discovers world outside the eurozone - There are signs of a rebalancing away from Europe, with rising exports to emerging markets - 5th May 2013
 * A little growth means so much to Osborne - The 0.3% rise in output has taken the heat out of calls for Britain to relax austerity - 28th April 2013
 * Low pay begins to do more harm than good - Higher wages across the private sector could push up consumer spending and productivity - 21st April 2013
 * Fire up the winning formula of the 1980s - Thatcher’s reforms laid the foundation for Britain’s improved performance over three decades - 14th April 2013
 * Households break free of stifling debt burden - The rise and rise of debt has been one of the stories of our age - but now it is dropping sharply - 7th April 2013
 * Two-speed economy explains the job puzzle - What’s happening to the economy this chilly Easter weekend? If you are in the garden centre or outdoor attraction business, not much - 31st March 2013
 * Don’t rely on the Bank to pump up growth - The weekend after a budget is not the best time to write. Many people will already have devoured the detail, all the reactions are done and dusted, and if it is going to unravel it hasn’t yet - 24th March 2013
 * Five ways for Osborne to force some growth - This week’s budget will be disappointing. Here is how the chancellor can limit the damage - 17th March 2013
 * Eurozone storms can still blow Britain away - Europe, and whether it can steer its way out of its crisis, matters a lot - 10th March 2013
 * Can we still trust the Bank with our money? - It has taken me longer than some but I am no longer so sure the economy is safe in its hands - 3rd March 2013
 * Boost productivity or we’ll be poorer - The rest of the G7 is roughly a fifth more productive than Britain - 17th February 2013
 * Carney’s no messiah but needs miracle takeoff - Can the new Bank of England governor deliver the growth that gets the government out of the fiscal mess? - 10th February 2013
 * We’ve been on a roll — and can do it again - Over the past 30 years, Britain’s underlying strengths have helped growth per head to rise faster than in France, Germany and America - 3rd February 2013
 * Financial hangover is Britain’s big headache - Banking crises are more common than we think, but that they also lead to far deeper downturns and slower recoveries than normal cyclical recessions - 27th January 2013
 * Start a currency war and we’ll all be hurt - All currencies are valued relative to each other. One country’s competitive advantage always is another’s loss - 20th January 2013
 * Glimmers amid gloom as risks start to fade - The strong FTSE 100 reflects a perception among investors that another dip in in the global economy has become less likely - 13th January 2013
 * Welfare, the elephant lurking in every room - Some 30m people, almost half the population, receive one benefit or more. Such a country can never be healthy - 6th January 2013
 * Jobs boom lightens year of the double dip - Many forecasters were taken by surprise by the continued strength of the labour market. Who got the numbers spot on? - 30th December 2012
 * Big bucks for Carney but can he deliver? - The new Bank governor will earn his salary and more if he helps to bring about non-inflationary growth alongside a safe banking system - 23rd December 2012
 * Oil drags us down – we need an energy boost - North Sea output has halved. Could we look to shale gas to drive new growth? - 16th December 2012
 * Osborne’s austerity is milder than you think - Slow growth is the product of a range of factors. We should not lazily blame it all on cuts that are far from draconian - 9th December 2012
 * Osborne needs to give business a good push - Manufacturing and construction are the sectors where help is most needed, and investment is the best way to deliver that help - 2nd December 2012
 * To tackle the deficit, first deal with welfare - This government has failed to address benefit spending — it is up by nearly 8% in a year. Why has it risen so much? - 25th November 2012
 * Chancellors rarely win by moving goalposts - Moving the goalposts is a groundsman’s nightmare, with all those lines to repaint, but it appears to be the fashion. George Osborne is accused of it, with his grab of £35bn or so of the BoE’s accumulated interest on the gilts it has bought under its QE programme - 18th November 2012
 * How much of a shake-up is needed at the Bank? - Paul Tucker remains the one to beat for the top job. But a credible dark horse, a genuine outsider, might be better - 11th November 2012
 * It’s a strange austerity when public pay jumps - Public sector pay has risen nearly twice as fast as in the private sector in this supposed time of cuts. How can that be? - 4th November 2012
 * Sexy number masks slow return to form - Much has been written about the third-quarter gross domestic product figures, before and after their release. What shall I say? - 27th October 2012
 * Say goodbye to double dip - BRITAIN should shake off the double-dip recession this week, economists say, with GDP figures for the third quarter expected to show a return to growth - 21st October 2012
 * Low inflation blinded Bank to other dangers - Policymakers have given too much prominence to inflation targeting. It took their eyes off problems in the global economy - 14th October 2012
 * Bungled cuts – time to call an expert axeman - The government has made the wrong kind of spending cuts. They should call in an outsider for the next round - 7th October 2012
 * Osborne is on track — now for the hard part - Even though deficit reduction is on target, relaxed monetary policy has failed to kickstart the growth we need - 30th September 2012
 * Inflation still too high to beat the squeeze - Living costs have shown a welcome fall to 2.5%. But pay is rising an annual 1.5% — still well below inflation - 23rd September 2012
 * Good news indeed — but mind the trade gap - Good news is a precious commodity, often in short supply, so we should celebrate and nurture it. In the past few days there have been three sets of good news - 16th September 2012
 * Construction can’t build the recovery on its own - Recoveries have to be rounded. They cannot rely on initiatives to boost one sector that is only a small part of the economy - 9th September 2012
 * Printing money hasn’t pumped up recovery - Markets are addicted to QE, in the way they used to be addicted to low interest rates - 2nd September 2012
 * Wrong kind of cuts leave Osborne struggling - Deficit reduction has come from a drop in infrastructure spending and the hike in Vat to 20%. But welfare payouts have risen - 26th August 2012
 * Booming, slumping or flatlining? You choose - Employment figures and retail sales are up — in an economy that is supposed to be back in recession. Economists are flummoxed - 19th August 2012
 * Endless credit famine crunches the recovery - At no stage have I had the impression that Osborne and King, sleeves rolled up, have been working together to get credit flowing - 12th August 2012
 * Swedes show how to assemble a recovery - Sweden’s economy is well above pre-crisis GDP, while Britain’s is more than 4% below it - 5th August 2012
 * Heaven knows, we’re not so miserable now - The mood may be gloomy but falling unemployment and inflation rates are taking the pressure off most households - 22nd July 2012
 * your muscle to boost lending, Guv’nor'' - Why, if the authorities can order a bank to sack its chief, can the Bank and the Treasury not just tell them to lend? - 15th July 2012


 * Britain receives the wrong kind of easing - We need credit easing, not quantitative easing. The Bank of England should be buying bundles of small business loans on behalf of the Treasury - 9th October 2011
 * Osborne seeks solace down memory lane - Margaret Thatcher’s budget of 1981 is still playing an important role in the fiscal thinking of the current chancellor George Osborne - 2nd October 2011
 * Pick a pump that will rescue the recovery - I shall continue to stand, Canute-like, against the rush to more easing. It is less a magic bullet than a tool to inflate your way out of trouble - 25th September 2011
 * Scramble under way to rev up the recovery - I do not want to reprise my misery index piece, but it is clear that if we were miserable then, heaven knows we are even more miserable now - 18th September 2011
 * A painless way to rebuild our recovery - The government should divert spending on services to infrastructure instead. The fiscal multipliers are at least three times higher - 11th September 2011
 * Long hard slog leaves consumers wilting - People are struggling, but accept that an artificial monetary stimulus, like an artificial fiscal stimulus, would not solve anything - 4th September 2011
 * it stands, divided Europe will fall'' - After the chaos of early August, relative calm has descended on the markets, but the eurozone remains the biggest single threat to global recovery - 28th August 2011
 * index explains why we’re all so glum'' - The key indicator of economic discontent is at a 17-year low, which is why the overall picture for Britain remains so dark - 21st August 2011
 * index explains why we’re all so glum'' - The key indicator of economic discontent is at a 17-year low, which is why the overall picture for Britain remains so dark - 21st August 2011
 * can’t risk rating on futile Vat cut'' - A loss of the AAA rating would have an immediate and damaging impact on those parts of the banking system that are owned by the government - 14th August 2011
 * keep on working but we’ve lost our mojo'' - The latest GDP figures were not as bad as they could have been, but weak productivity is a big worry — especially in services - 31st July 2011
 * battles to conquer debt mountain'' - Growth is disappointing. It would have been a small price for getting the deficit down, but that is not happening - 24th July 2011
 * sir, can we have some more lending?'' - Britain’s problem is not too little public spending, but too little bank lending to smaller businesses. There is proof that this is systemic - 17th July 2011
 * Britain can grow old without going bust'' - Of all the pressures on the public finances in the coming decades, easily the most important relate to demographics - 10th July 2011
 * failure leads to squeeze on your wallet'' - The falls in real incomes are a failure of policy — and the Bank of England shares responsibility for that with the government - 3rd July 2011
 * tax to make UK a magnet for the world'' - The government’s planned reduction of corporation tax to 23% is welcome but hardly revolutionary, merely bringing it down to the EU average - 26th June 2011
 * grow but global locomotive won’t stop'' - The world economy has lost momentum, with even China and India losing steam — but most of this is because of temporary factors - 19th June 2011
 * real Plan B would end the credit drought'' - The government's banking experts must come up with a plan to get credit flowing at a pace that will sustain a decent economic recovery - 12th June 2011
 * would benefit from a sterling boost'' - The main reason we need a stronger pound is to help control inflation and limit the extent that interest rates will need to rise to do so - 5th June 2011
 * Osborne cutting too hard, or not enough?'' - If high inflation persists there may be a case for revisiting the cash totals for public spending, to prevent the squeeze from being even tougher - 29th May 2011
 * condemn Britain to slow lane'' - This week's gloomy forecasts from the Bank of England were expected, but Mervyn King's hawkish line on inflation was more of a suprise - 15th May 2011
 * needs more than sticking plaster rescues'' - The eurozone is looking unappealing and battered. Parts are held together only with artificial support. Where does it go from here? - 8th May 2011
 * and Judy show clouds debate on cuts'' - In the debate over fiscal policy, economists are sowing confusion, rather than giving the public clear guidance on the government's actions - 2nd May 2011
 * tricky challenge of rebalancing Britain'' - Too large much of Britain's GDP is driven by consumer and government spending, and not enough by exports and investment - 24th April 2011
 * outbreak of cheer eases the rate pressure'' - After a gloomy start to the year things could be looking up, thanks to rising employment rates, a falling trade deficit and a dip in inflation - 17th April 2011
 * of recovery shines through gloom'' - Despite fears, global economic growth is gathering momentum. It is slow, and occasionally unsteady, but it is a recovery - 10th April 2011
 * much should we mind the output gap?'' - How will we know whether the output gap is big enough to justify the government’s fiscal plans? Only by watching what happens - 10th April 2011
 * inflation threatens Osborne’s growth plan'' - The Chancellor’s difficult second budget has been fairly well received, but we can't be complacent and lose our position in the global market - 27th March 2011
 * need not slip on soaring oil prices'' - The toxicity of oil has been highlighted by recent uprisings, and the chancellor will be balancing votes and income in his upcoming budget - 20th March 2011
 * a lid on pay and we may escape misery'' - Ordinary wages are failing to match the growth in inflation. But if we keep a lid on pay we may be able to escape the miserable state we're in - 20th February 2011
 * tide of imports hits export-led recovery'' - Britain’s trade position has taken a turn for the worse. The great rebalancing of the economy is not happening - 13th February 2011
 * for rate rises as inflation hits home'' - Reports of the recovery’s death appear to have been greatly exaggerated, with three key sectors bouncing back after a weather-hit December - 6th February 2011
 * woes leave us with a steeper climb'' - The economy is 4.4% smaller than before the recession. The climb back up gets a lot harder if you lose your footing in the snow - 30th January 2011
 * rates won’t save the Bank’s reputation'' - Anything the Bank of England does now would be regarded as a belated response to an inflation problem it failed to predict - 23rd January 2011
 * Asia keep pulling the world to recovery?'' - In the late 1980s there was talk of Japan overtaking America — then its bubble economy burst. Could a similar fate befall China? - 16th January 2011
 * interest rates fail to crank up bank lending'' - Despite rising inflation, an upward nudge of the 0.5% Bank rate remains unlikely as banks pay off their debts rather than lend - 9th January 2011
 * the crossroads of inflation and growth'' - Inflation will be a headache for the Bank, but the rise in private investment is encouraging. Will King be forced to raise rates sharply? - 2nd January 2011
 * failed to spot inflation surge'' - The British economy performed better than many expected it to this year. David Smith looks at which pundits got it right - 26th December 2010
 * break-up talk may scupper lending revival'' - The three worries for 2011 are: the eurozone derailing a recovery, spending cuts and banks' inability to support the economy - 19th December 2010
 * countries pump up inflation for the poor'' - In many emerging economies the problem is inflation rather than deflation, while in Britain the problem will get worse before it gets better - 12th December 2010
 * down the pound to help the recovery'' - As manufacturing leads the economy out of recession, the pound’s under-valuation against the euro must be maintained - 4th December 2010
 * of shoppers finds new ways of growing'' - Exports and investment are starting to replace consumer and government spending as the drivers of economic growth in Britain - 28th November 2010
 * to keep euro jigsaw from falling apart'' - Germany has to ease up to make the euro work, otherwise it — and not Ireland, Greece or Spain — will cause a break-up - 21st November 2010
 * has the power to turn on lending taps'' - To ease an ongoing credit crunch, the Bank of England should extend the period over which official support for banks is withdrawn - 14th November 2010
 * there be another minor miracle on jobs?'' - The recession was deeper than its predecessors but employment has held up well. Could the private sector now offset public job cuts? - 7th November 2010
 * will sober up an unbalanced economy'' - Balancing the government’s books and balancing trade should be part of the same story. Conditions are in place for just that - 24th October 2010
 * best chance to put a lid on our debt'' - After the cuts are announced, some will say the government has gone too far, while others will be clamouring for even bigger spending cuts - 17th October 2010
 * will also be hammered by the cuts'' - Not only do firms have to create jobs to offset government cuts, they also have to prepare for their own setbacks in spending review - 10th October 2010
 * We are not turning into the Japanese'' - Japan teaches us to introduce quantative easing and not raise rates which would tighten monetary policy prematurely - 3rd October 2010
 * destined to be stuck in the mud'' - Even though property prices are recovering, volumes are much more important — and they remain very low, to the detriment of the economy - 26th September 2010
 * the case for a rise in interest rates'' - Inflation has been above 2% for more than 75% of the months since 2005. More than a dip is needed to ensure the Bank’s credibility - 19th September 2010
 * alternative to the bitter pills on spending'' - There is no alternative to the bitter pills on spending, no matter how much Ed Balls insists that there is no crisis in our public finances - 11th September 2010
 * picture shows that the recovery is intact'' - The markets are confused as recent data that has emerged paints a conflicting picture of the world’s economic recovery - 5th September 2010
 * expect a return to the golden age'' - The period of moderation up to 2007 was exceptional. Public finances should be robust enough to withstand the next downturn - 15th August 2010
 * talk does more damage than cuts'' - Ministers should stop exaggerating austerity measures. It dents consumer confidence, which could restrict the recovery - 8th August 2010
 * fuels anxiety on recovery'' - A double whammy of weaker growth and higher inflation, forecast by the Bank of England, is set to shake the markets - 8th August 2010
 * many cooks will spoil monetary broth'' - The chancellor is no longer in charge. We now have economic policy by committee — and three committees, no less - 1st August 2010
 * leaps but it’s a creditless recovery'' - It is not entirely clear how growth can be so strong — gross domestic product rose 1.1% in the second quarter — with lending so weak - 25th July 2010
 * sector can create the 2m jobs that we need'' - It is in Britain's swiftly recovering private sector that the jobs will be found to prevent widespread unemployment - 18th July 2010
 * break up the euro, but not just yet'' - Logic says the euro cannot survive with its current membership intact. But this would be a bad time for anybody to leave - 11th July 2010
 * to worry about but not a double dip'' - Economies across the world remain in a state of turmoil, but the hard facts suggest a double-dip recession remains highly unlikely - 4th July 2010
 * magic, real deficit is revealed'' - For the first time the official forecast for Britain’s economy will be produced by an independent body, the Office of Budget Responsibility - 13th June 2010
 * world’s glass is more than half full'' - Financial conditions in Britain are conducive to recovery. We should try to ensure they stay that way, at least for a while - 30th May 2010
 * rise would be one more headache for the Bank'' - The Office for Budget Responsibility will take a reasonable view of what the economy needs - but will it include 20% Vat? - 23rd May 2010
 * our way out the hard way'' -in an era of tax rises, Cutting the deficit will involve harder decisions than putting together a coalition agreement - 16th May 2010
 * anyone survive the deficit poisoned chalice?'' - The danger of the election result is that nobody will have the guts to tackle Britain's £163b black hole - 9th May 2010
 * error leaves us all fearing the hangover'' - Everybody knows we face a post-election hangover, but for most people it doesn’t feel that way - 2nd May 2010
 * mountain not as steep'' - Britain's predicted 1.3% growth this year is comfortably better than the eurozone and the average for advanced economies - 25th April 2010
 * man of Europe springs back into life'' - The flexibility that stood Britain in good stead before the crisis will still be an advantage as the economy moves out of it - 11th April 2010
 * let to make monkey of voters'' - Something strange has been happening, Tories made an announcement that sounded like a softening of the party’s fiscal stance - 4th April 2010
 * fog lifts but axe has to fall'' - If things continue to head in the direction of recent months, a resolution is in sight to the nightmare of Britain’s public finances - 28th March 2010
 * no harm’ should be Darling’s motto'' - Politics is not grown up enough for the Chancellor to set out in detail the spending cuts needed in the review that follows the election - 21st March 2010
 * exports may be cheap, but Europe is not buying'' - In the distant past, the monthly trade figures were regarded as the single most important barometer of the country’s health - 14th March 2010
 * woes are vote against Brown'' - The markets continue to believe a Labour victory, particularly a minority Labour government, would be very bad for Britain - 7th March 2010
 * mess around with inflation targets'' - Inflation-targeting, while far from flawless, has been the most effective model for UK monetary policy in modern times - 28th February 2010
 * ruins hide spare capacity'' - What does an economic wrecking ball look like? If you know, and can put a number on it, the BoE would love to hear from you - 14th February 2010
 * the knives to avoid a Greek tragedy'' - Tackling the deficit is one political priority. Getting growth going is another. Balancing the two will be tricky - 7th February 2010
 * is the cloud on the recovery’s horizon'' - The banks have their own debt hangover to deal with. One way they are doing so is by not lending enough into the economy - 31st January 2010
 * joy takes sting out of inflation misery'' - One door opens, another slams shut. Just as news on unemployment is getting better, inflation takes a turn for the worse - 24th January 2010
 * exports don’t bounce neither will the economy'' - It is the big question after any recession. Where will the growth come from? The answer has to be from exports - 17th January 2010
 * at 50% is a good way to kill the golden goose'' - Heaven knows what tricks Darling will be required to perform as polling day approaches. Just say no, Alistair - 10th January 2010
 * will tip economy to the east'' - The world economy is recovering but is heavily skewed towards emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil - 3rd January 2010
 * record breaking year - for all the wrong reasons'' - The biggest annual slide in the economy since the 1930s caught forecasters by surprise. We review their predictions - 27th December 2009
 * year could have been a lot worse'' - Anything could have happened to the banking system, an even worse crisis was averted, for which credit is due to authorities - 20th December 2009
 * strange case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Darling'' - Perhaps the real Chancellor got lost somewhere in Downing Street, diverted by a lot of Brown and a load of Balls - 13th December 2009
 * Darling’s balancing act: cut deficit or win votes'' - Will the markets be convinced by Alistair Darling's commitment to reduce Britain’s enormous budget deficit? - 6th December 2009
 * expect much blood from Darling's axe'' - Anybody expecting the chancellor to issue bloodcurdling warnings of how much pain is on the way, will be disappointed - 29th November 2009
 * nutters can relax – but only for a while'' - Abbott and Posen have different definitions of inflation nutters. Not everybody who worries about inflation meets the description - 22nd November 2009
 * says let’ s party like it’s 1994 again'' - How can we square the Bank of England’s upbeat forecast with governor’s relentlessly downbeat tone in presenting it? - 15th November 2009
 * the central banks blowing new bubbles?'' - The combination of near-zero rates, a weak dollar and the willingness of the authorities to support every market in sight is dangerous - 8th November 2009
 * should prime pump for another £30bn'' - The Bank has done £175bn of quantitative easing, and it has helped. But it's too early to ease off the accelerator just yet - 1st November 2009
 * may undershoot despite GDP setback'' - Time and again in this recession, the ONS has come up with gloomier gross domestic product numbers than anybody expected - 25th October 2009
 * market lift will keep unemployed below 3m'' - It should have been an easy tap-in, but the formal end of the recession has turned into a cliff-hanger - 18th October 2009
 * and spending squeeze will keep Bank rate low'' - Now the party conferences are over, do we know about how the budget deficit will be tackled? - 11th October 2009
 * time for Osborne to lift the Tory veil'' - There is a good chance Tories will form the next government, so there is added pressure to explain their economic policy - 4th October 2009
 * are still a nation of shoppers, not squirrels'' - Will we be spenders or savers? It is a big question for the economy, and for those relying on consumer demand - 27th September 2009
 * market must be as flexible on the way up'' - Unemployment up, wages down, or at least slowing to a record low. It is the story of Britain’s labour market now - 20th September 2009
 * Myners talks about his City role'' - In an interview with The Sunday Times, the City minister says taxpayers will make money from the government’s banking rescue - 13th September 2009
 * bankers and regulators, not the market'' - My view of markets is like Churchill’s view of democracy: their faults may be many but they beat the alternatives by far - 6th September 2009
 * surprises leave markets floating on air'' - One thing we have learnt during this crisis is that markets are skittish, and hugely influenced by confidence and mood - 30th August 2009
 * easing clips the wings of rising pound'' - As Oscar Wilde might have said, to mislead once is a misfortune, to do so twice smacks of carelessness - 9th August 2009
 * are hit hardest as jobs take a dive'' - Nearly a fifth of 18 to 24-year-olds in Britain are out of work, part of a 5m army of young unemployed across the European Union - 2nd August 2009
 * will surely rise to fill the Treasury hole'' - What will the inevitable tax rises that will accompany the cut on public spending mean for economy? - 26th July 2009
 * may be too weak to support the recovery'' - While business would like them to be going a lot faster, a gentle jog is all they can manage - 19th July 2009
 * outlook: Tear up the rulebook, it's all about borrowing'' - Luxury of deciding what to do about excessive lending will come later. But it is a new era - 12th July 2009
 * effect suggests recession dive is over'' - Honda supplied customers from stock, suspending production at its Swindon factory. Last month it restarted, and it is not alone - 5th July 2009
 * ahead is uncertain as talks turn to recovery'' - Optimism that the worst of the recession is over is giving way to uncertainty about what shape the recovery might take - 28th June 2009
 * must tackle public-sector blight'' - The Conservatives need to go further in reforming the public sector than merely relying on eyewateringly tight budgets - 14th June 2009
 * lending tap won't open for some time'' - With so much going on in politics, the economy has benefited from being out of the spotlight, with sterling rallying significantly - 7th June 2009
 * is no easy way out of the debt maze'' - Inflation and government debt are related. Some fear the government will seek to inflate its way out of its problems - 24th May 2009
 * consumers: down but not out'' - My sense is that the Bank of England, given a "glass half-full or glass half-empty" choice, had no incentive to be upbeat - 17th May 2009
 * the fall, how steep is the climb?'' - What kind of upturn can we expect when this is over — vigorous or insipid? - 10th May 2009
 * at the end of the tunnel'' - After a huge rush of events things have gone a bit quiet. It could be that nothing is happening, which would be worrying - 3rd May 2009
 * surgery still needed – and it is going to hurt'' - You should play the ball not the man. Attacking Alistair Darling does not come easy, even for hard-hearted commentators - 26th April 2009
 * tries to climb out of a hole'' - With the economy is in deep recession, the Chancellor has as much room for manoeuvre as an elephant in a Mini - 19th April 2009
 * needed for Ireland’s plight'' - Raising Vat was the first thing Howe did on entering the Treasury in 1979. Do you ever feel history might be repeating itself? - 12th April 2009
 * gives us less reason to wallow in the gloom'' - Brown would have found it harder to exercise his authority if Britain really was the sick man of the global economy - 5th April 2009
 * sink as world trade slumps'' - Leaders of countries representing 85% of the world economy should make a firm stand against protectionism, and mean it - 29th March 2009
 * door spins faster for unemployed'' - It is tempting to think there are no jobs around and that once you get handed the redundancy letter you might as well give up - 22nd March 2009
 * will need to act fast on inflation'' - The general feeling is that beyond the valley of temporarily falling prices lie the jagged peaks of a nasty inflation problem - 15th March 2009
 * injection means we are all monetarists now'' - None of us has seen rates this low. When the storm passes, we may never see them as low again - 8th March 2009
 * everybody gets skittled by recession'' - Some parts of the economy are relatively recession-proof, and others will emerge not just standing but stronger - 1st March 2009
 * deep, what will bring us back to life?'' - Economics has not covered itself with glory in predicting the situation we find ourselves in. The bankers' and economists' models did not work - 15th February 2009
 * the UK consumer really flat on his back?'' - One of the stories of 2009 will be that consumers can buy cheaply, if they choose to, and not just at the discounters - 8th February 2009
 * can’t pump up this economy'' - A disparaging view of Davos would be that if hot air alone could reflate the global economy things would be looking up quite soon - 1st February 2009
 * is not Iceland. Is EU the next Japan?'' - If there was a currency I would be worried about at the moment, however, it would be the euro - 25th January 2009
 * the horizon for an exit strategy'' - Assuming near-zero rates are not normal, how do you get back to normal without stifling the recovery? - 18th January 2009
 * out of step with Bank'' - A Tory shadow chancellor should be well regarded by the City. Instead, Alistair Darling is winning grudging approval - 11th January 2009
 * monsters battle to settle our future'' - Lovers of Hollywood B movies will recognise that the battle between King Kong and Godzilla will determine the outcome for 2009 - 4th January 2009
 * of 2008 causes havoc for predictions'' - There were a number of ways the crisis could have played out. The route it ended up taking was close to the worst - 28th December 2008
 * in reverse despite Bank’s cuts'' - Government intervention and support, for three decades regarded as off limits, has made an extraordinary come-back - 21st December 2008
 * time to reach for euro lifeline'' - Britain tends to turn to Europe at times of trouble, with disastrous consequences - 14th December 2008
 * collapse oiled the wheels'' - The more the financial crisis dragged on, the more oil bulls became certain the price of crude would continue to rise. That seemed illogical to me - 7th December 2008
 * spending cuts will get us out of this black hole'' - The Treasury and independent experts debate whether filling a "black hole" in the government’s projections needs a few billion of tax rises - 30th November 2008
 * risks drowning in a sea of red ink'' - Tomorrow it will be hard to put a cigarette paper between Brown and Darling - 23rd November 2008
 * Darling needs to do more about inheritance tax'' - With the average detached home in the southeast still worth about £400,000 according to Halifax, you only need about £200,000 in savings and investments before your heirs will have to pay tax at 40% - 23rd November 2008
 * on ropes as Bank throws in the towel'' - Gordon Brown is making political hay out of the crisis but he is not carrying the Bank with him. For years central-bank independence was his proudest achievement as chancellor. Now I get people asking whether it was such a good idea after all - 16th November 2008
 * time for wimps as history boys take over'' - The Bank has to cut more aggressively now to get the same effect as it did two years ago - 9th November 2008
 * window is shut but rate cuts will help'' - 2nd November 2008
 * recessions hurt, but big ones are scary'' - 26th October 2008
 * rescue won't stop the misery index rising'' - 19th October 2008
 * for a bold cut in interest rates'' - The days when a deft touch on the tiller by the Bank of England sent powerful shockwaves through the economy are long gone - 5th October 2008
 * this is the bust, why wasn’t it preceded by a bigger economic boom?'' - 28th September 2008
 * party is over for shrinking City'' - 21st September 2008
 * is poised to peak and then slide'' - 14th September 2008
 * pounding but not a bloodbath'' - The tide has gone out on sterling and, to paraphrase Warren Buffett, it does not appear to have been wearing any bathing trunks - 7th September 2008
 * should slip off inflation shackles'' - There is no doubt that many sectors of the economy could do with the tonic of an interest-rate cut, but how could it be justified? - 31st August 2008
 * wilts as battle over economy looms'' - 24th August 2008
 * bed of nails we all have to lie on'' - Economies generally obey the bicycle theory - if they are not moving forward they are at risk of falling over - 16th August 2008
 * the economy grow even if consumers wilt?'' - The fall in the oil price from farcical to merely ridiculous levels, with other commodity prices easing in tandem, is good news - 27th July 2008



Economics UK:
Column name: David Smith's Economics UK

Remit/Info: To "provide knowledge and stimulate debate on economics, for business people, students, economists and others"

Section:

Role: Blogger

Pen-name:

Email: [mailto:david@economicsuk.com david@economicsuk.com]

Blogsite: http://www.economicsuk.com/blog

Commissioning editor:

Day published:

Regularity: Frequent, approx. tri-weekly

Column format:

Average length:



Articles:




News & updates:


References:


Links:

 * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Smith_(journalist_and_author)