Martin Wolf



Profile:


Full name: Martin Wolf

Area of interest: Global economics and political economy

Journals: Financial Times

Email: [mailto:martin.wolf@ft.com martin.wolf@ft.com]

Website: FT.Com / Martin Wolf

Blog: ft.com/wolfexchange

Agent: Leigh Bureau / biography (PDF)

Networks:



Biography:
Education/Academia: Corpus Christi College and Nuffield College, Oxford University: Politics, Philosophy and Economics (1st class honours); Visiting fellow, Nuffield College, Oxford University; Honorary fellow, Oxford Institute for Economic Policy (Oxonia); Special professor, University of Nottingham; Honorary degrees: Doctor of Science (Economics), London University, honoris causa, by the London School of Economics; Doctor of Letters, honoris causa, Nottingham University; Doctor of Science (Economics) of London University, honoris causa, London School of Economics

Career: World Bank's young professionals programme - senior economist by 1974; Director of Studies at the Trade Policy Research Centre, in London, 1981; joined FT in 1987

Current position/role: Associate Editor, chief economics commentator


 * also writes/has written for:

Other roles:

Other activities: Appointed member of the HM Treasury Independent Commission on Banking, June 2010

Disclosures:

Viewpoints/Insight: 'Martin Wolf' versus the 'World Bank' (The Globalist)

TV/Radio: Podcast - Martin Wolf reads his weekly column

Controversy/Criticism:

Awards/Honours: CBE, for services to financial journalism, 2000; Decade of Excellence Award, Business Journalists of the Year, 2003; Special Advocacy Award, FIRST magazine, for 'considered and effective responses to questions of globalization and capitalism'; Newspaper Feature of the Year Award, Workworld Media Awards; Senior prize for excellence in financial Journalism, Wincott Foundation (twice); RTZ David Watt memorial prize for article celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods conference; Journalism Prize, Fundacio Catalunya Oberta (Open Catalonia Foundation) ; New Zealand Commemoration Medal, 1990
 * Business Journalist of the Year Awards 2008: Best Commentator

Other: Director of Studies at the Trade Policy Research Centre, London, and has advised governments and international organizations on trade and economic integration



Books & Debate:

 * Adjustment policies and problems in developed countries: a study of the problems created by, and policies toward, the imports of manufactures from developing countries OCLC63976930, World Bank, 1979
 * Trade among developing countries: theory, policy issues, and principal trends OCLC8079325, 1981 (with Oleh Havrylyshyn)
 * India's exports OCLC8345658, 1982
 * Costs of protecting jobs in textiles and clothing OCLC11558451, Trade Policy Research Centre, 1984
 * Developing countries in the global trading system OCLC35936204, 1986
 * Fiddling while GATT burns OCLC65029967, 1986
 * What should be the future for European economic and monetary union? OCLC35665547, University of Nottingham, 1994
 * Resistible appeal of fortress Europe OCLC32275760, 1994
 * Is today's globalisation different from what has gone before? OCLC50440403, 2001
 * Why globalization works OCLC63245127, Centre for Development and Enterprise, 2005

Latest work: Fixing global finance OCLC21345219, 2008

Speaking/Appearances:
 * Three-part lecture series:"Fixing Global Finance" (audio/video) at John Hopkins University's SAIS on Tuesday, March 28, Wednesday, March 29 and Thursday, March 30, 2006
 * Leverhulme Globalisation Lecture Series: 'Fixing Global Finance' - Nottingham University, 22nd October 2008

Current debate: Economist's forum where leading economists debate issues raised in Martin's columns



Financial Times: Global
Column remit: Global economics and political economy

Section: Comment

Role: Chief economics commentator / associate editor

Pen-name:

Email: [mailto:martin.wolf@ft.com martin.wolf@ft.com]

Website: FT.Com / Martin Wolf

Commissioning editor:

Day published: Wednesday (in print)

Regularity: Weekly

Column format:

Average length: 1100 words



Articles: 2011

 * the crisis catapulted us into the future'' - It has brought some transformation, much acceleration of previous trends and great uncertainty - 2nd February
 * China hates loving the dollar'' - The case for allowing the renminbi to rise more rapidly is overwhelmingly strong - 26th January
 * and west are in it together'' - A breakdown in relations between China and the incumbent powers would be catastrophic - 19th January
 * and west converge on a problem'' - The biggest question of the 21st century may be whether resources prove to be binding constraints once again - 12th January
 * the grip of a great convergence'' - We are witnessing the reversal of the era of divergent incomes - 5th January



Articles: 2010

 * eurozone needs more than discipline from Germany'' - The issue is not whether to preserve the eurozone, but how - 22nd December
 * rising rates are good news'' - What is happening is a move towards normalisation - 15th December
 * there the will to save the eurozone?'' - Unfortunately, only a crisis can answer that question - 8th December
 * the Irish crisis is such a huge test for the eurozone'' - The fault lines in the currency union stand revealed - 1st December
 * refutes the German perspective'' - The eurozone needs more than fiscal discipline and structural reform - 24th November
 * to chart a course out of the Sino-American storm'' - A look at the fallout from the G20 summit in Seoul - 17th November
 * Fed is right to turn on the tap'' - The sky is falling, scream the hysterics, but nothing could be further from the truth - 10th November
 * account targets are a way back to the future'' - China should seize the escape offered by the US - 3rd November
 * US voters are suing Dr Obama'' - His treatment was right, in principle, but too cautious, in practice - 27th October
 * and America seek different paths from disaster'' - The austerity plans of the UK government contrast with those of the US administration - 20th October
 * America is going to win the global currency battle'' - China will lose. It just has to negotiate terms of surrender - 13th October
 * to fight the currency wars with stubborn China'' - The time has come to move beyond rhetoric - 6th October
 * clash in new age of beggar-my-neighbour'' - When America and China tussle, bystanders are likely to be trampled - 29th September
 * is right to worry about China’s growth'' - The longer rebalancing is postponed, the more painful it will be - 22nd September
 * the mouse that did not roar'' - The new banking rules are simply insufficient - 15th September
 * are wrong: the eurozone is good for them'' - Germany has an enormous political and economic interest in making the eurozone work - 8th September
 * was too cautious in fearful times'' - Any recovery is better than none. But it could have been much better than this - 1st September
 * the battle is joined over tightening'' - To tighten or not to tighten – that is the question. This is the issue addressed in the FT this week - 19th July
 * years and new fault lines threaten'' - Leaders of the world’s principal economies need to reform co-operatively and deeply - 14th July
 * shortfall casts doubt on early austerity'' - Rapid cuts in fiscal support make sense if, and only if, monetary policy can be effective - 7th July
 * global game of ‘pass the parcel’ cannot end well'' - The G20 is dealing with four interlinking games, which can only be changed together - 30th June
 * it is right for central banks to keep printing'' - At present, we have ‘too little money chasing too many goods’. In this environment, monetary policy must be aggressive. When the economy recovers, the monetary effects should be withdrawn - 23rd June
 * plans for early fiscal tightening carry global risks'' - Delayed retrenchment poses danger of inflation and even default - 16th June
 * must not blind us to deflation’s dangers'' - Is fiscal tightening really the way forward? - 9th June
 * grasshoppers and the ants – a modern fable'' - Today’s global economy is more complex than Aesop could have imagined - 26th May
 * currency bloc plays ‘beggar-my-neighbour’'' - Despite today’s gloom and doom, the eurozone will probably survive - 19th May
 * up the stakes in their fight with markets'' - The eurozone must create a system that recognises and responds to reality - 12th May
 * bail-out for Greece is just the beginning'' - Does this programme look sensible, either for Greece or the eurozone? - 5th May
 * cautious reform is the risky option'' - To make anything close to the present financial system less unsafe requires radical changes - 28th April
 * challenge of halting the financial doomsday machine'' - There is much more to effective reform of the financial system than tackling ‘too big to fail’ - 21st April
 * the renminbi manipulation'' - The Chinese pot is calling the US kettle black - 7th April
 * Germany cannot be a model for the eurozone'' - Last week’s European Council was not a solution but a fudge. The IMF cannot save Europe - 31st March
 * virtue can be a vice for the world economy'' - Germany must play its part in rebalancing global demand - 24th March
 * and Germany unite to impose global deflation'' - Schäuble and Wen’s suggestions would hit their own economies - 17th March
 * eurozone crisis nightmare'' - The sound money imperative conflicts with the goal of European integration - 10th March
 * elephant charges on through the crisis'' - The country is growing fast, but reforms are still needed - 3rd March
 * world economy has no easy way out of the mire'' - It will be tough to avoid defaults - 24th February
 * to walk the fiscal tightrope that lies before us'' - Massive fiscal tightening could tip much of the world back into recession - 17th February
 * stragglers need German consumers'' - A eurozone core demand engine would rebalance demand - 10th February
 * the world must do to sustain its convalescence'' - The policy interventions of late 2008 and 2009 resulted in a far briefer and shallower recession than most imagined a year ago. The big questions for this year are how quickly to withdraw the monetary and fiscal stimulus and which should be withdrawn first - 3rd February
 * axe is not enough to cut banks to size'' - Obama’s latest proposals for bank reform miss the point. They may or may not be workable, but they do nothing to create a sustainable finance sector - 27th January
 * Greek tragedy deserves a global audience'' - The problems of Greece are extreme, because it alone of the vulnerable eurozone member countries has both high fiscal deficits and high debt. Some say it should be bailed out, but there are two other possibilities – it toughs it out or just defaults - 20th January
 * term that helps to focus attention'' - The sustained ‘catch-up’ growth across large parts of the developing world is a reality of our era, even if the five biggest examples have next to nothing in common - 18th January (see also: Building Brics)
 * we can learn from Japan’s decades of trouble'' - Japan’s experience indicates that when fast growth begins to slow in a catch-up economy with high corporate savings and comparably high fixed investment, demand may well prove hard to manage - 13th January
 * eurozone’s next decade will be tough'' - The countries on the periphery of Europe’s single currency are in deep trouble thanks to the imbalances within the eurozone. And none of the solutions look palatable - 6th January



Articles: 2009

 * challenges of managing our post-crisis world'' - The underpinnings of our global economy and so of our globalised civilisation remain dangerously fragile. Somehow, we must manage to sustain a dynamic global economy, promote development, deliver environmental sustainability and ensure peaceful and co-operative international relations - 30th December
 * the noughties were a hinge of history'' - The rest of the world was inclined to believe that the west, whatever its faults, knew what it was doing. But then the teacher failed the examination - 23rd December
 * dismal choice: how to share the losses'' - Not only has the UK had a financial crisis, with the usual severe impact on output and the public finances; it has also been a “monocrop” economy, with finance itself acting as the “crop” - 16th December
 * China’s exchange rate policy is a common concern'' - What we are seeing is a failure of adjustment to changes in global competitiveness that has unhappy precedents, notably during the 1920s and 1930s, with the rise of the US, and during the 1960s and 1970s, with the rise of Europe and Japan - 9th December
 * Copenhagen must be the end of the beginning'' - Next week’s summit will fall short, but at least there is now broad agreement that action is needed to tackle climate change, writes Martin Wolf. Solving the problem needs a stable price for carbon, needs wealthy countries to pay up and needs big subsidies for new technology - 2nd December
 * us fiscal austerity, but not quite yet'' - Slashing deficits now would be wrong. What is needed, instead, are credible fiscal institutions and a road map for tightening that will be implemented, automatically, as and when (but only as and when) the private sector’s spending recovers - 25th November
 * truths Obama should have told Hu'' - Obama should have make clear the need for China to revalue its currency and rebalance the global economy when he met Hu Jintao. He could reasonably threaten punitive action, such is the need for change - 18th November
 * in the cold war was a start as well as an ending'' - Has capitalism failed, as communism did? No. Some transition countries are in crisis; but transition itself is not. Liberal democracies and market economies can reform and adapt. They have shown these qualities before. They must do so again - 11th November
 * behaviour will shape our path to fiscal stability'' - It is idiotic to discuss the reduction of the huge fiscal deficits, without considering the nature of the offsetting adjustments in the private and external sectors. Some adjustments would be desirable, but others would be extremely perilous - 4th November
 * mistaken ideas helped to bring the economy down'' - The era when central banks could target inflation and assume that what was happening in asset and credit markets was no concern of theirs is over. Not only can asset prices be valued; they have to be - 28th October
 * to manage the gigantic financial cuckoo in our nest'' - This recovery has been no accident. When central bank money is almost free, prices of risky assets are recovering, competitors have disappeared or are weakened, making money is a relatively simple matter for the strong survivors - 21st October
 * rumours of the dollar’s death are much exaggerated'' - Recent figures have proved that the dollar’s fall is a symptom of success, not of failure. All the same, the dollar-based global monetary system is defective. It would be good to start building alternative arrangements - 14th October
 * a route to recovery and reform gets tough now'' - The economy is back on track, but it is too soon to celebrate victory. Rebalancing, reform and regulation are still needed, none of which will be easy. Resistance from the banks is already threatening to poison the political debate - 7th October
 * narrow banking alone is not the finance solution'' - Demanding that banks act as narrow utilities solves the problem of the financial system taking control of the power to print money, but would need to be paired with a ban on other forms of banking. Such radical ideas may yet be entertained - 30th September
 * China must do more to rebalance its economy'' - Remember how poor hundreds of millions of Chinese still are. Then consider that the net transfer of resources abroad was equal to a third of personal consumption. China needs to increase consumption, and that means revaluing the currency - 23rd September
 * not learn the wrong lessons from Lehman’s fall'' - We were not so foolish as to risk a cascading failure of banks. Yet we cannot let stand the doctrine that systemically significant institutions are too big or interconnected to be allowed to fail - 16th September
 * it is still too early to start withdrawing stimulus'' - The rescue of the financial system, unprecedented monetary easing and fiscal expansion have indeed put a floor under the world economy. But it is too early to declare victory - 9th September
 * the storm comes a hard climb'' - The worst of the financial crisis may be behind us, but the financial system remains undercapitalised and weighed down with an as yet unknown burden of doubtful assets. The probability of mischief down the road is close to 100 per cent - 15th July
 * India must do if it is to be an affluent country'' - What would need to change if India were to become an advanced economy in one generation? The answer is: a great deal. But one thing is clear: after the performance of the past three decades, the goal is not laughable - 8th July
 * cautious approach to fixing banks will not work'' - The financial system had to be rescued from its own mismanagement of risk. This is not going to be changed by external supervision, which would be like moving the regulatory deckchairs on the deck of the Titanic. It is going to be changed only by fixing incentives - 1st July
 * of regulation has to start by altering incentives'' - Bubbles and crises cannot be eliminated from capitalism. Yet it is hard to believe the risks run by institutions had nothing to do with incentives. The unpleasant truth is that incentives for risky behaviour are, if anything, even bigger than before the crisis - 24th June
 * recession tracks the Great Depression'' - Green shoots are bursting out. Or so we are told. But before concluding that the recession will soon be over, we must ask what history tells us. It is one of the guides we have to our present predicament. Fortunately, we do have the data. Unfortunately, the story they tell is an unhappy one - 17th June
 * is in Beijing’s interests to give Geithner a hand'' - If China wants its claims on the US to be safe, it must facilitate an adjustment in the global balance of payments. If it and other surplus countries wish to run huge surpluses and accumulate vast financial claims, they should expect defaults - 10th June
 * government bond rates prove policy is working'' - Stanford’s John Taylor and the Harvard historian Niall Ferguson have both argued in the FT that the US fiscal path is unsustainable - 3rd June
 * domestic demand is a chronic European ailment'' - Recovery in Europe is likely to be slow and painful. One reason is that Germany, the EU’s biggest economy, is heavily dependent on foreign spending. A fall in net exports will account for three-fifths of its 5.4 per cent economic shrinkage this year - 27th May
 * crisis is a moment, but is it a defining one?'' - Is the current crisis a watershed, with market-led globalisation, financial capitalism and western domination on the one side and protectionism, regulation and Asian predominance on the other? Or will historians judge it, instead, as an event caused by fools, signifying little - 20th May
 * Obama’s conservatism may not prove good enough'' - The more the crisis unfolds, the more evident it is that incentives in the financial system were (and are) badly distorted. At the end, will the number of institutions thought “too big to fail” be as large as now and, if so, how will they be controlled? - 13th May
 * banks must target more than just inflation'' - Over almost three decades, policymakers became ever more confident they had found, in inflation targeting, the holy grail of fiat (or man-made) money. Today, they are struggling with the deepest recession since the 1930s and the danger of deflation. How can it have gone so wrong? - 6th May
 * bankrupt financial systems is just the beginning'' - The major world economies have made the fundamental decision to prevent bankruptcy, but this is only the first step on the long hard road back to financial health - 29th April
 * the ‘green shoots’ of recovery could yet wither'' - Is the worst behind us? In a word, No. The rate of economic decline is decelerating. But it is too soon even to be sure of a turnround, let alone of a return to rapid growth. Complacency is perilous. These are still early days - 22nd April
 * back financial capitalism is America’s big test'' - Decisive restructuring is necessary, because bankruptcy – and so losses for unsecured creditors – must be a part of any durable solution to this economic crisis - 15th April
 * the G2 must try to discuss now the G20 is over'' - Given the scale of the world’s macroeconomic imbalances, it is far from obvious that higher regulatory standards alone would have saved the world - 8th April
 * G20 leaders will fail to deal with the big challenge'' - The G20 summit is dealing with the short-term symptoms of chronic global excess. The world economy cannot be safely balanced by a small number of countries spending themselves into bankruptcy. Finding a longer-term cure for the illness still lies ahead - 1st April
 * bank rescue still far away'' - With the IMF expecting world output to shrink by up to 1 per cent this year and the economies of the advanced countries to shrink by between 3 and 3.5 per cent, this is the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s. So far the congressional response has been a disaster - 25th March
 * saving the world economy should be affordable'' - Is there good reason to expect huge increases in public sector indebtedness across the globe? Yes, but this does not guarantee defaults - 18th March
 * the G20 must focus on sustaining demand'' - The right thing to do is ‘more than enough’. It will always be possible to withdraw stimulus a year or two hence. It will be far more difficult to make action effective if depression, both economic and social, takes hold - 11th March
 * sews its own destruction'' - The Future of Capitalism: Assumptions that prevailed since the 1980s embrace of the market lie in shreds. The era of free-wheeling finance is over. But the current crisis could have consequences that stretch much further - 9th March
 * nationalise or not – that is the question'' - We are painfully learning that the world’s mega-banks are too complex to manage, too big to fail and too hard to restructure. Nobody would wish to start from here. But, as worries in the stock market show, banks must be fixed, in an orderly and systematic way - 4th March
 * Obama should tell leaders of the Group of 20'' - The London summit of 1933 marked the moment at which co-operative efforts to manage the Great Depression collapsed. The summit of the Group of 20 countries, in the same city, on April 2, must turn out quite differently - 25th February
 * lessons for a world of balance-sheet deflation'' - How far is that experience relevant to today? Japan was able to rely on exports to a buoyant world economy. This crisis is global: the bubbles and financial mania spread across much of the western world - 18th February
 * Obama’s new Tarp will fail to rescue the banks'' - The US president must do far more than hope for the best. Yet that is what one sees in his stimulus programme and – so far as I can judge from Tuesday’s sketchy announcement by the Treasury secretary – also in the new plans for fixing the banking system - 11th February
 * Davos Man is waiting for Obama to save him'' - However easy it is to blame the US for global economic woes, it is also to the US that the world looks for a solution. Concerted action is needed to reverse the downward spiral of despair, and that will only occur if the US gives leadership - 4th February
 * dealing with the huge debt overhang is so hard'' - Countries with large current account surpluses have long demanded an end to the profligate borrowing and spending of the customers upon whom they depended. They should have been careful what they wished for - 28th January
 * Obama must mend a sick world economy'' - One idea the new US president should propose is a high-level committee to recommend a radical restructuring of global institutions. This would aim to lower the risk of emerging market crises like those that preceded the bubbles in advanced countries - 21st January
 * Obama’s plan is still inadequate and incomplete'' - If the fiscal deficits are to fall sharply in the medium term, as they need to, the new president needs effective programmes for private sector deleveraging and global reform and adjustment - 14th January
 * made in 2009 will shape the globe’s destiny'' - Some entertain hopes of restoring the globally unbalanced economic growth of the middle years of this decade. They are wrong. Our choice is between a better balanced world economy and disintegration. That choice must be made this year - 7th January



Articles: 2008

 * offers best way to think about crisis'' - Sixty-two years after Keynes’ death, in another era of financial crisis, it is easier for us to understand what remains relevant in his teaching - 24th December 2008
 * Ben’ confronts the challenge of a lifetime'' - Central banks may resort to their most powerful weapons against deflation: the printing press and the “helicopter drop” of money. Will this work? Yes. But returning to normality will prove far more elusive - 17th December 2008
 * eurozone depends on a strong US recovery'' - A robust recovery would eliminate the danger of some countries being badly damaged. If it does arrive, there is no doubt where it will come from – not from Germany’s actions to sustain domestic demand, but from profligate ‘Anglo-Saxons’ - 10th December 2008
 * imbalances threaten the survival of liberal trade'' - Surplus countries must expand domestic demand relative to potential output. How they achieve this outcome is up to them. But only in this way can the deficit countries realistically hope to avoid spending themselves into bankruptcy - 3rd December 2008
 * fairly valued stock markets are an opportunity'' - Alongside the possibility of the most damaging slowdown since the second world war, there is good news: stock markets are attractively priced. This should have enticing implications for audacious governments - 26th November 2008
 * membership is still no answer for UK'' - In an uncertain world, an economy needs mechanisms of adjustment. The exchange rate is the most powerful such mechanism. Today’s extreme circumstances have made the case for retaining exchange-rate flexibility not weaker, but stronger - 19th November 2008
 * economic challenges'' - The president-elect must build on the achievements of his predecessors rather than turn the US away from the world. He must push reforms that help most Americans gain from globalisation and promote reforms abroad - 12th November 2008
 * a new Bretton Woods is vital'' - What is happening now may well be the last chance for an open and dynamic world economy. We have to have to make such catastrophic collapses less likely - 5th November 2008
 * a global slump is priority'' - Everything possible must be done to prevent the inescapable recession from turning into something worse - 29th October 2008
 * world wakes from the wish-dream of de-coupling'' - The US retains the capacity to disrupt the world economy which it has possessed since at least the 1920s. Accordingly, the struggle between the deleveraging of high-income countries and the growth momentum of emerging economies is ending, alas, in a decisive victory for the former - 22nd October 2008
 * have at last thrown the world a lifeline'' - Policymakers finally realised that a plan for dealing with such a severe financial crisis must contain those elements that are individually necessary and collectively sufficient - 15th October 2008
 * revenge'' - The west’s traumas stem not just from cheap money, gung-ho bankers and lax regulation but from sustained capital inflows - 9th October 2008
 * is time for comprehensive rescues of financial systems'' - The time for a higgledy-piggledy, institution-by-institution and country-by-country approach is over - 8th October 2008
 * Britain must do in the crisis'' - Ireland’s guarantee is a ‘beggar thyself’ policy, allowing management to gamble with the public sector’s balance sheet - 3rd October 2008
 * decides it is worth risking another depression'' - The plan is indeed flawed. But Congress’ failure to ratify it is unlikely to convince anybody that something better will be forthcoming - 1st October 2008
 * plan was not a true solution'' - What is needed is a clear and effective way of deleveraging and recapitalising the financial sector, ideally without using taxpayer funds - 24th September 2008
 * end of lightly regulated finance has come far closer'' - The need for government-led rescues of undercapitalised financial systems is looking increasingly likely - 17th September 2008
 * housing solution is not a good one to follow'' - Is the rescue of Fannie and Freddie an example of US policymaking that the UK should follow? - 10th September 2008
 * the presidential choice could mean'' - This presidential election might well determine the character of the next, possibly final, epoch of Anglo-American global hegemony - 3rd September 2008
 * return of the Russia the west loves to loathe'' - 30th August 2008
 * A year of living dangerously - It is almost a year since the US subprime crisis went global. So where is the world economy now? - 16th July 2008
 * Why obstacles to a deal on climate change are mountainous - Tackling man-made climate change is much the most complex collective action problem in human history. Solving it will require concerted efforts from both developed and developing countries over at least a century. There is no choice but to try - 8th July 2008
 * Lessons to be learnt from the financial crisis - The aim of this year’s report by the Bank for International Settlements is clear: it is to reduce the frequency and severity of crises. It is not enough to say that we can clear up afterwards. That is too complacent and too one-sided - 1st July 2008
 * How to see the world economy through two crisis - In the short term, the biggest monetary policy requirement is a tightening in emerging economies, many of which have strongly negative real interest rates. As important is letting jumps in energy prices pass through, forcing adjustments in energy use - 24th June 2008
 * How imbalances led to credit crunch and inflation - Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Milton Friedman. What explains the combination of a “credit crunch” in the US with soaring commodity prices and rising inflation across the globe? Are these unrelated events or part of a bigger picture? - 17th June 2008
 * Sustaining growth is the century's big challenge - Is it possible for the vast mass of humanity to enjoy the living standards of today’s high-income countries? This is, arguably, the biggest question confronting humanity in the 21st century - 10th June 2008
 * Useful dos and don'ts for fast economic growth - Today, almost two-thirds of humanity lives in high-income or high-growth countries. That proportion is up from less than a fifth 30 years ago. Unfortunately, the remaining 2bn live in countries with stagnant, or even declining, incomes - 3rd June 2008
 * Emu's second 10 years may be tougher - How could anybody dare to question the achievements of the single currency? It is considered a credible rival to the US dollar - 27th May 2008
 * Preserving the open economy at times of stress - Is the spread of prosperity in the interests of citizens of today’s high-income countries? Is globalisation of their economies in their interest? - 20th May 2008
 * The market sets high oil prices to tell us what to do - Oil at $200 a barrel: that was the warning from Goldman Sachs, published last week. The real price is already at an all-time high (see chart). At $200 it would be twice as high as it was in any previous spike. Even so, it would be a mistake to focus in shock only on the short-term jump in prices. The bigger issues are longer term - 13th May 2008
 * Seven habits finance regulators must acquire - “Simply stated, the bright new financial system – for all its talented participants, for all its rich rewards – has failed the test of the market place.” Paul Volcker, April 8 2008 - 6th May 2008
 * Food crisis is a chance to reform global agriculture - Of the two crises disturbing the world economy – financial disarray and soaring food prices – the latter is the more disturbing - 29th April 2008
 * A turning point in managing the world's economy - As the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund remarks, “the world economy has entered new and precarious territory”. What are perhaps most remarkable are the contrasts between booming commodity prices and credit-market collapses and between buoyant growth in emerging economies and incipient recession in the US - 22nd April 2008
 * Why financial regulation us both difficult and essential - Nice try; no cigar. That was my reaction to the attempt of the banking community to forestall additional regulation, by recommending “a suite of best practices to be embraced voluntarily” - 16th April 2008
 * Why Greenspan does not bear most of the blame - When a wave of destruction hits, everybody looks for somebody to blame. Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, once lauded as the “maestro”, has, to his discomfort, become the scapegoat - 8th April 2008
 * The prudent will have to pay for the profligate - You have enjoyed a debt-financed spending spree. But times are now harder... What can you do? Provided enough of you are in trouble, you call for help from the fairy government-mother - 1st April 2008
 * The rescue of Bear Stearns marks liberalisation’s limit - Remember Friday March 14 2008: it was the day the dream of global free- market capitalism died - 25th March 2008
 * Why today’s hedge fund industry may not survive - Hardly a week goes by without the implosion of a hedge fund. Last week it was Carlyle Capital, with an astonishing $31 of debt for each dollar of equity. But we should not be surprised - 18th March 2008
 * The debutant banks on a brighter fiscal future - Stability is the new prudence. In his first Budget speech, Alistair Darling used the new watchword more than 23 times - 12th March 2008
 * Going, going, gone: a rising auction of scary scenarios - What am I bid on financial sector losses from the US subprime mortgage crisis? - 11th March 2008
 *  Life in a tough world of high commodity prices - Soaring commodity prices, rising headline inflation and weakening economic growth: for those whose memories stretch back to the 1970s, this combination brings painful memories - 4th March 2008
 * America’s economy risks mother of all meltdowns - “I would tell audiences that we were facing not a bubble but a froth – lots of small, local bubbles that never grew to a scale that could threaten the health of the overall economy.” Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence. - That used to be Mr Greenspan’s view of the US housing bubble. He was wrong, alas - 19th February 2008
 * Why Putin’s rule threatens both Russia and the west - At least he made the trains run on time. That was said of Benito Mussolini, Italy’s fascist dictator from 1922 to 1943. Much the same is now said of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s authoritarian president. He may have crushed the fragile shoots of democracy, but he has at least restored the economy, the state and his country’s place in the world - 12th February 2008
 * Why it is so hard to keep the financial sector caged - When will the next financial crisis come? We do not know. Yet of one thing we can be sure: unless we learn from this crisis, another one will put the world economy back on to the rocks in the not too distant future - 5th February 2008
 * Bernanke’s reflation gamble may work too well - Whatever else it may be, the Federal Reserve is not boring. Indeed, by the standards of other central banks, it is hyperactive - 29th January 2008
 * Why the global financial turmoil is like an elephant in a dark room - “I was gradually coming to believe that the US economy’s greatest strength was its resiliency – its ability to absorb disruptions and recover, often in ways and at a pace you’d never be able to predict, much less dictate.” Alan Greenspan, ‘The Age of Turbulence’. - We all hope that Mr Greenspan proves right about the US economy - 22nd January 2008
 * Regulators should intervene in bankers’ pay - You really don’t like bankers, do you?” The question, asked by a former banker I met last week, set me back. “Not at all,” I replied. “Some of my best friends are bankers.” While true, it was not the whole truth. I may like many bankers, but I rather dislike banks. I recognise their necessity, but fear their irresponsibility. Worse, they are irresponsible partly because they know they are necessary - 15th January 2008
 * Challenges for the world’s divided economy - Last January I noted the optimistic view of prospects for the world economy (“Globalisation’s future is the big long-term question”, January 9). But I also stressed two contrasts: the first was between this optimism and the risks being created by the excess of savings over investment in big parts of the world economy; and the second was between the economic optimism and pessimism about political prospects (“A divided world of economic success and political turmoil”, January 31) - 8th January 2008



Financial Times: UK
Column remit: UK economics and politics

Section: Comment

Role: Chief economics commentator / associate editor

Pen-name:

Email: [mailto:martin.wolf@ft.com martin.wolf@ft.com]

Website: FT.Com / Martin Wolf

Commissioning editor:

Day published: Friday (in print)

Regularity: Fortnightly

Column format:

Average length: 850 words



Articles: 2011

 * warning shot for the British experiment'' - Where now is the robust recovery that justified rapid fiscal retrenchment? - 28th January
 * risks of raising interest rates too quickly'' - Should the Bank tighten now in response to a possible overshoot of its target two years from now? No - 14th January



Articles: 2010

 * eurozone needs more than discipline from Germany'' - The issue is not whether to preserve the eurozone, but how - 22nd December
 * rising rates are good news'' - What is happening is a move towards normalisation - 15th December
 * there the will to save the eurozone?'' - Unfortunately, only a crisis can answer that question - 8th December
 * the Irish crisis is such a huge test for the eurozone'' - The fault lines in the currency union stand revealed - 1st December
 * matter just as much as debt'' - Borrowing is no sin, provided we use the funds productively - 26th November
 * IMF is giving some good fiscal advice'' - The Fund is right to accept that Britain needs a ‘plan B’ - 12th November
 * has gone climbing without a rope'' - An assessment of the government’s ambitious spending review - 29th October
 * politics but only time will tell'' - This policy may be a triumphant economic success. It may be the biggest fiscal policy blunder since the early 1930s. It may end up somewhere in between - 21st October
 * higher student fees are right'' - The changes will bring pain. But the upside is also huge - 15th October
 * IMF’s foolish praise for austerity'' - Effective policy would see the UK government increase its deficit - 1st October
 * risks of premature tightening'' - Britain needs a flexible plan for fiscal cut - 17th September
 * the Balls critique is correct'' - The market is screaming its lack of concern about UK fiscal credibility - 3rd September
 * Britain does not need a graduate tax'' - Allocation of funds would be put under the control of the state - 23rd July
 * we must halt the land cycle'' - Ruinous trust in land speculation has led to expensive houses and inefficient taxes - 9th July
 * risks of Osborne’s pre-emptive strike'' - The balance of cuts that the chancellor has set out is unlikely to prove politically sustainable, let alone sensible - 24th June
 * bloodbath none was prepared for'' - Perhaps only a young government – in age and in time in office – would gamble so much on such a fast adjustment - 23rd June
 * question for chancellor Osborne'' - So far, so good. But can you tell me your 'Plan B' - 11th June
 * Britain the policy hair shirt'' - Why the OECD is wrong about UK inflation and interest rates - 28th May
 * economic legacy of Mr Brown'' - Conventional wisdom on which the former prime minister relied turned out to be wrong - 14th May
 * historic general election'' - The question is whether the country drives the adjustments, or is driven by them - 30th April
 * is the fix for British finances'' - The UK must implement efficiency savings, plus cuts to public sector pay and services, plus tax rises 16th April
 * economy must perform a rebalancing act'' - We must not cut the fiscal deficit regardless but while sustaining recovery and growth - 14th April
 * to the future’ imperils Britain'' - UK party leaders need the vision thing - 26th March
 * British election that both sides deserve to lose'' - Neither side in the impending contest is convincing - 12th March
 * unruly economists can agree'' - Demands for stimulus and credible public finances can both be valid - 26th February
 * can love hung parliaments'' - It would be no more difficult to implement the needed tightening under a coalition - 12th February
 * strategic chocolate dilemma'' - Corporate takeovers are in the spotlight again after Kraft’s successful bid for Cadbury. Martin Wolf asks whether it makes sense to run a regime as open as the UK’s - 29th January
 * the Icelandic saga should end'' - The combination of cross-border banking with generous guarantees to creditors is unsustainable. Taxpayers cannot be expected to write open-ended insurance on the foreign activities of their banks - 15th January



Articles: 2009

 * new challenges need new people'' - Those parts of public sector spending that sustain the long-term health of the economy should not be sacrificed - 18th December
 * post post-Thatcher era begins'' - The era of reforms from Thatcher through to New Labour led to rapid growth which, even after recent falls, has left Britain better placed than most major economies - 4th December
 * the windfall banking bonuses'' - The case for generous subventions to banks is to restore the financial system to health. It is not to enrich bankers, particularly not those engaged in the sorts of trading that destroyed the system in the first place - 20th November
 * Edge: Big Nanny’s plan for us all'' - Martin Wolf takes criminal records checks to their logical conclusion - 14th November
 * for a debate on immigration'' - Diversity brings social benefits, but also costs, arising from declining trust and erosion of a sense of shared values - 6th November
 * curbing finance is hard to do'' - There is a way of making finance safe. But it would be radical: deposits would be 100 per cent reserve backed; and the liabilities of other investment vehicles would be adjusted for the market value of their assets at all times. Banking would disappear - 23rd October
 * phoney debate on slashing spending'' - Cuts must not come too soon - 9th October
 * Cable’s mansions tax is right'' - Only in a country both besotted with property and determined to tax the middle classes, rather than the hugely wealthy, would people object to this obviously just idea - 25th September
 * is asking the right questions on finance'' - But the answers are missing- 11th September
 * to Britain’s mediocre prospects'' - Changes are needed, the grim fiscal outlook will have to be dealt with, but this presents an opportunity for the political parties to rethink public sector priorities - 17th July
 * ado about central bankers'' - In the case of the UK’s irresponsible fiscal position, the Bank of England governor should be allowed to speak - 3rd July
 * is the best fiscal policy'' - Cuts in real spending are as inevitable under Labour as under the Tories. The only question is where they might fall - 19th June
 * Britain’s phoney fiscal war'' - Most of the deficit increase came from a surge in spending and most of the drop must be from spending curbs - 5th June
 * Britain has to curb finance'' - How should one manage a sector that produces such ‘bads’? The answer is: in the same way as any polluting activity - 22nd May
 * Britain’s fiscal debacle'' - The UK has lost control over public spending. Like it or not, voters must elect a government willing to get it back - 8th May
 * Britain’s predicament is so bad'' - Fiscal deterioration in the UK and declines in manufactured output in Germany and Japan are two sides of one coin - 24th April
 * chancellor flying on a wing and a prayer'' - Only Alistair Darling, most emollient of politicians, could manage to make this Budget seem boring. The economic figures make a horror story. However it could, of course, be even worse - 23rd April
 * is key to policy success'' - The ability to navigate through the financial crisis depends on the sincerity of the authorities’ commitment to long-term stability - 3rd April
 * the Turner report is a watershed for finance'' - Yet even this radicalism is limited: the report rejects division of the financial system into utilities and a casino - 20th March
 * risks for the insurer of last resort'' - If the UK government believes bail-out must be piled upon bail-out, then banking must be treated as a regulated utility – end of story - 6th March
 * anew on UK monetary policy'' - A cogent analysis of prospects for inflation has to be broader and longer-term than that in the Bank of England’s inflation report - 20th February
 * is always the economy, stupid'' - I would far rather have to manage the UK through this crisis, despite the challenges, than Spain or Ireland - 6th February
 * UK banks too big to rescue?'' - By offering guarantees, the government could be subsidising the recreation of a market in lemons - 23rd January
 * game of blind man’s buff'' - The utterances of leading Labour and Conservative politicians do not explain how the UK is to emerge from its current quagmire - 9th January



Articles: 2008

 * to do with Britain’s banks'' - The biggest challenge is getting through the extended emergency support to a more sustainable structure - 12th December 2008
 * Britain flirts with disaster'' - what does the pre-Budget report tells us about the government the UK now has. Should you trust it with your money, or not? - 28th November 2008
 * government takes a huge gamble on investor confidence'' - It is unclear from the chancellor’s speech that the government recognises the scale of the structural challenge - 25th November 2008
 * week of living perilously'' - Panic seized markets this week. Just one asset class is deemed safe: the liabilities of highly-rated governments - 21st November 2008
 * Britain’s authorities must do'' - In introducing the latest Inflation Report, Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, remarked that “it is very likely that the UK economy entered a recession in the second half of this year”. In fact, it is certain. The question is what the UK authorities can and should do about it - 14th November 2008
 * UK authorities should try now'' - The monetary policy committee must rethink its stance. In the present circumstances, I would like UK rates at 2.5 per cent - 31st October 2008
 * policy success amid the disaster'' - The costs of decisive action were vastly less than those of inaction. The fiscal burden should be manageable - 17th October 2008
 * to meet the dangers facing Britain'' - Do not panic: the UK economy ought to be able to get through this crisis without a recession as deep as those of the early 1980s and 1990's - 18th September 2008
 * the sky may not be falling'' - A weak government in Downing Street is a risk. Any policies it introduces must avoid undermining confidence in the UK’s policy regime - 5th September 2009
 * Falling over a cliff in slow motion - A big drop in British house prices is likely, partly because prices are extraordinarily high and partly because credit has dried up - 10th July 2008
 * Britain has run out of luck - What is ahead will be tougher than the expansion the UK has been used to for 16 years. But it’s not the end of the world - 26th June 2008
 * Britain's utility model is broken - Privatisation was one of the great achievements of the Thatcher era. But it is becoming increasingly evident that the transfer of monopolies into the hands of regulated companies that own, run and develop the assets is flawed - 12th June 2008
 * Britain is better off outside the euro - Silliness is abroad in the UK. Some are arguing in favour of a looser monetary regime - 29th May 2008
 * Britain must not cut loose its  anchor - Tougher times loom ahead for the UK. That is the lesson of the latest inflation report from the Bank of England - 15th May 2008
 * Why Britain's economy will change - What does the economic turmoil mean for the UK economy? This is not a question about prospects for the next year. It is deeper than that - 1st May 2008
 * Let Britain's housing bubble burst - What has happened to British phlegm? Instead of greeting news of falling house prices and tightening lending with aplomb, people shriek that the sky is falling - 17th April 2008
 * Four falsehoods on UK immigration - What will history judge the most important policy decision taken by the Labour government? It will not, in my view, be the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, independence of the Bank of England or refusing to join the euro. Policy on immigration is more important than any of these - 4th April 2008
 * Leona Helmsley remains alive in Britain - “We don’t pay taxes. Only the little people pay taxes.” Thus spoke the late Leona Helmsley, the billionaire New York hotel owner known as the “Queen of Mean”, en route to federal prison for tax evasion - 6th March 2008
 * Brown is wrong even when he is right - Last June Gordon Brown reached his promised land: he became prime minister. Since then he has discovered that, far from being a land of milk and honey, it is full of perils - 21st February 2008
 * Nationalising Northern Rock was the right move - Nationalising Northern Rock was the right decision. It should have happened months ago - 17th February 2008
 * Why a crisis is also an opportunity - So how bad might the next year or two be for the UK economy? Quite bad is my answer. What should policymakers do in response? - 7th February 2008
 * The Bank must keep its nerve - In times of panic, grown-ups keep their nerve. In a financial crisis, central banks must be the grown-ups. This week, however, the board of the US Federal Reserve seemed to panic... - 24th January 2008
 * Why sterling is the next dollar - Will sterling follow the US dollar? As Willem Buiter pointed out last week (“The silver lining in sterling’s decline”, January 4), this is highly likely - 10th January 2008

