Hamish McRae



Profile:
Full name: Hamish McRae

Area of interest: Business and Finance; Economics; Business futurology (esp. shift of power to economies of Asia; impact of new technologies on world economy)

Journals: The Independent, The Independent on Sunday

Email: [mailto:h.mcrae@independent.co.uk h.mcrae@independent.co.uk]

Website: The Independent: Comment | Business comment

Blog: Open House

Agent: see 'Books & Debate' section for list of agencies

Networks:



Biography:
Education: Fettes College, Edinburgh; Trinity College, Dublin: Economics and Political Science (MA)

Career: The Banker: deputy editor; Euromoney: editor; The Guardian, 1975/1989: financial editor; The Independent: associate editor, 1989- Current position/role: Associate Editor; Principle Economic Commentator


 * also writes/written for:

Other roles: Author
 * Visiting professor at Lancaster University School of Management
 * Council member of the Royal Economic Society
 * Founder of Net Profit Publications and Director of Gartmore Income and Growth Trust

Other activities:

Disclosures:

Viewpoints/Insight:

TV/Radio: Regular broadcaster on BBC radio
 * YouTube: Interview with Hamish McRae by Julia Hobsbawm (video)

Controversy/Criticism: *Clarke misquoted me to support Tory propaganda'' - 24th April 2010

Awards/Honours: Financial Journalist of the Year, 1979; Amex Bank essay awards: special merit award, 1987; Periodical Publisher's Awards: Columnist of the Year, 1996; David Watt Prize for outstanding political journalism, 2005; British Press Awards: Business and Finance Journalist of the Year, 2006

Other: Married to Frances Cairncross, economist, journalist, and Rector of Exeter College, Oxford University



Books & Debate:

 * Capital city: London as a financial centre (1973) OCLC 696597 (with Frances Cairncross)
 * Second Great Crash (1975) OCLC 1230670 (with Frances Cairncross)
 * Japan's role in the emerging global securities market (1985) OCLC 11970553 (with Tadashi Nakamae)
 * Developments in the retail savings market (1992) OCLC 30030097
 * The world in 2020: power, culture, and prosperity (1995) OCLC 31173901 - (related VIDEO - thesweeneyagency.com)

Latest work: What works OCLC 435879404 Harper Press, 2010

Agencies:
 * CSA
 * Gordon Poole
 * International Speakers Bureau
 * London Speaker Bureau
 * Prime Performers
 * Speakers for Business
 * The Sweeney Agency

Speaking/Appearances: OECD Forum 2008: Climate change, Growth, Stability, Paris 3/4 June 2008

Current debate: 

The Independent/The Independent on Sunday:
Column remit: Business and Finance; Economics; Business 'futurology'

Section:

Role: Principle Economic Commentator

Pen-name:

Email: [mailto:h.mcrae@independent.co.uk h.mcrae@independent.co.uk]

Website: Independent.co / comment | Independent.co / business

Commissioning editor:

Day published: Wednesday, Thursday, Sunday

Regularity: Three times a week

Column format:

Average length:



Articles: 2011

 * jobs is a good sign, but there are still worries about growth'' - Economic View: A year of the coalition, a year of OK-ish recovery, and a year of worryingly-high inflation. So what's next? - 16th May
 * year on, has the Coalition made good progress on growth and the deficit?'' - Economic Life: The deficit cutting programme has hardly begun but you could at least say that nothing has gone seriously wrong with public finances in the last year - 13th May
 * will quit the euro...'' - ... not just yet though - 11th May
 * goes the commodities bubble – probably. And what a relief that will be'' - Economic View: Suddenly – just this last week – it looks as though the commodity-price bubble may have popped - 8th May
 * decision to hold back on increasing interest rates may turn out to be wrong'' - The danger would be that the rise in short-term rates next year would have to be even greater than it otherwise would - 6th May
 * are better now, of US fixing deficit'' - There is, after any memorable event, an immediate instinct to look for economic and financial consequences - 4th May
 * we like it or not, the Royal Family is our strongest global brand'' - Economic View: It is an odd weekend, isn't it? The fairy tale of the royal wedding is counterbalanced by the backdrop of major economic and political concerns - 1st May
 * on a show: an invaluable advert for brand Britain'' - Economic Life: I cannot quite see how we monetise the Royal Family but, to borrow from Napoleon, a nation of shopkeepers ought to be able to work something out - 29th April
 * US dollar was once so special...'' - ... But no longer... - 27th April
 * of the European economy matters more than its weakest links'' - Economic View: The eurozone crisis continues; but the eurozone recovery continues, too - 17th April
 * up with the world's newfinancial order'' - Economic Life: You don't have to have followed the debate about the US budget deficit to be aware that something radical is happening to the status of the dollar - 15th April
 * an interest rate hike is still on the cards'' - Phew! The depressing economic data became a touch lighter yesterday - 13th April
 * Europe faces up to its troubles, rates can only climb further'' - Economic View: Well, don't say you weren't warned. The European Central Bank did increase interest rates last week and the Bank of England didn't, at least not yet - 10th April
 * to welcome age of the new normal'' - This will be the week of the turning point in interest rates - 6th April
 * of protest apart – if the ECB raises rates, how will it affect us?'' - Economic View: This will in all probability be the week when Europe increases its interest rates. It will also in all probability be the week when the UK does not increase its rates. Yet they have lower inflation and higher unemployment than we do – and would/ will be increasing rates at a moment of high stress in the fringe members of the eurozone. So what might be the implications of this move? - 3rd April
 * reactions to the Finance Bill find both God and the devil in the details'' - Economic Life: Ernst & Young said the bill would encourage the UK's entrepreneurs and provide a launch pad for the small firms that will enable the economy to flourish - 1st April
 * Fukushima effect, globally, will be colossal'' - What happened in Germany was a rejection of nuclear power - 30th March
 * all in a two-speed economy; it's no fun – but not as bad as it's painted'' - Economic View: It is a two-speed world economy, as we have known for a while, with the emerging economies racing ahead of the developed ones - 27th March
 * have a little patience – things are moving in the right direction, but slowly'' - Economic Life: Two-speed economic growth is likely to continue, with the emerging world racing on and the developed one plugging along behind - 25th March
 * just hope Osborne is lucky'' - Revenues have to go on rising for the numbers to add up - 24th March
 * shocks, hopes of growth bring comfort'' - The Budget is theatre; the economy is reality - 23rd March
 * follows shock around the world – but, so far, the recovery is still on track'' - Economic View: Events put us all in our place. We fuss about each twist of the economy, the nuances of a new statistic, the implications of some policy initiative – and then, bang, something comes along that makes all our judgements seem at best a bit petty and at worst utterly wrong - 20th March
 * tragedy will have an impact far beyond Japan'' - Economic Studies: The economic costs of a catastrophe such as that which has struck Japan should always rank second to the human costs - 16th March
 * cost of catastrophe and unrest is huge in both human and economic terms'' - We get the balance wrong. Sometimes relatively small events can be seen with hindsight to have massive consequences; sometimes the reverse - 13th March
 * what happens in May, it's the long term that matters'' - We will get a rise in short-term eurozone rates soon, maybe next month, but it is easy to exaggerate the real impact of such a move - 11th March
 * people still think Britain is a scary place'' - So the Budget will apparently be billed as a budget to promote growth - 9th March
 * this strange period of near-zero rates draws to a close, the question is: what next?'' - Economic View: I don't think it is going to happen but we can't rule out the possibility that UK interest rates will go up this week - 6th March
 * interest rates are on the way, but a double dip is not'' - Economic Life: There are headwinds to be sure and they will contain the recovery, but they don’t feel sufficiently strong yetto plunge us into a double dip - 4th March
 * Irish have got some luck left in them yet'' - Economic Studies: So what can the new Irish government actually do? It has, or will have once the Coalition has been brought together, a powerful popular mandate to renegotiate the terms of the recent loan bailout as well as making changes to the previous government's austerity programme - 2nd March
 * for a bit of Budget leeway, Chancellor? Don't hold your breath'' - Economic View: The squeeze is on. It is just over three weeks to the Budget and the glide path to it has become more bumpy - 27th February
 * power to shock the world economy has not gone away'' - Opec has promised to increase production to offset any reduction in output from Libya. Yet the oil price has risen by more than $20 a barrel - 25th February
 * but grumpy: the German condition'' - Economic Studies: The Germans are confident again. Their consumers are confident, reporting the most positive expectations since the pre-crash days of October 2007 - 23rd February
 * big reasons why we need peace in the Middle East: oil and oil money'' - Economic View: It is premature to speculate about the economic consequences of the political strife in the Middle East, and in a way almost improper to do so - 20th February
 * what the G20 does over the next decade, not what politicians say'' - It is a somewhat sobering thought that Turkey and Indonesia will add more to global wealth over the next decade than Germany, France or Britain - 18th February
 * too is forced down the austerity road'' - We worry about the impact of our cuts in public spending but not the far, far bigger story that is about to unfold - 16th February
 * all very well, but other banking changes are set to shape all our futures'' - Economic View: So the Government has nudged the banks into lending more to industry - 12th February
 * case for higher rates: A better supply of more expensive money is needed'' - Economic Life: Two things have to get back to normal: interest rates have to rise and we have to unwind the flood of money caused by quantitative easing rates - 11th February
 * our doors to talent makes sense'' - Economic Studies: Message from Britain to foreigners: we want you if you are rich but we are not quite so keen if you are only a university student - 9th February
 * right to feel twitchy, but shares indicate there'll be no UK double dip'' - It is a funny time isn't it? We have had all the troubling news from Egypt and we have seen the consequences of that in the oil price and on inflationary expectations worldwide - 6th February
 * economy will grow fast in the next five-year plan – we must watch and learn'' - The chilling question is what we can do here in the UK that countries on the other side of the globe cannot do just as well and at lower costs. Oh dear... - 4th February
 * get real: cheap oil is never coming back'' - Economic Studies: Oil is the most important single source of primary energy, supplying in round numbers 35 per cent of the total - 2nd February
 * get real: cheap oil is never coming back'' - Oil is back up above $100 again – a level which has pushed the price of fuel at the pumps to record levels - 2nd February
 * is wise to warn: it'll be tough going in a world burdened with debt'' - Economic View: David Cameron's sunny optimism deserted him somewhat in Davos when he warned about the scale of the task ahead - 30th January
 * and daunting with turmoil aplenty, but a recovery will come one day'' - Economic Life: The IMF has upped its forecast for growth. The US seems to be moving again. And if China hit a growth pause, it would take the pressure off oil and commodity prices - 28th January
 * believe the merchants of gloom'' - If economic data comes as a shock it is usually because it is wrong - 26th January
 * interest rates will go up – but when? Best keep an eye on the ECB'' - Economic View - 23rd January
 * may have hit rock bottom – and survived'' - Economic Studies: Economics always eventually trumps politics, as Ireland's experience shows - 19th January
 * countries face catastrophe as inflation creeps up the food chain'' - Economic View: Inflation worldwide is back with a vengeance – and with distressing social consequences. World food prices hit a new all-time record last week, passing their previous peak in 2008 - 16th January
 * reason for optimism, but our growth will depend on the US economy'' - The ECB does seem to have started preparing the markets for higher interest rates and when it does that will add pressure on the Bank of England to follow suit - 14th January
 * house prices are just what we need'' - Britain is back to falling house prices again - 12th January
 * are up, confidence is in the air, but it's still going to be a slog of a year'' - Economic View: A happy New Year? Well, on balance, probably a happier one than last year in the sense that the global recovery is more secure now than it was a year ago, and that will inevitably pull the UK up along with the rest of the developed world - 9th January
 * will shift from the West but the rich will still be rich in 50 years' time'' - Present and continued prosperity is based on open borders. It is easy to look back and see how protectionism has wrecked the creation of wealth in the past - 7th January
 * we can learn from the early 1980s'' - Economic Studies: The economy last year turned out better than most people expected, with a fall in unemployment and growth of around 1.8 per cent – not wonderful, and with real worries about inflation, but compared with the previous two years, not bad at all. So what can we sensibly say about this year? - 5th January



Articles: 2010

 * the secret of happiness for 2011: Keep your expectations low'' - There is a lot to be said for having low expectations. Actually 2010 turned out to be a rather better year for the UK economy than most people expected - 26th December
 * Year in Review: The economy'' - After the belated bounce, it's time for the long, hard slog - 24th December
 * year that proved world is moving East'' - As we near its end, it is time to take stock - 22nd December
 * interest rates are hiding problems that will only emerge as growth returns'' - Economic View: Will this Christmas season be seen as the last hurrah, the final days of cheer before VAT rises and the spending cuts start to bite? - 19th December
 * is still searching for stability and the UK must find it too'' - At best we will have a sullen calm; at worst, a further crisis engulfing several of the weaker countries and unfortunately probably also their banks - 17th December
 * must spread its wealth more evenly'' - It is a two-speed world. One half is struggling to get things moving. The other is trying to rein back its growth - 15th December
 * sovereign debt: now's the time to jump on Europe's business wagon'' - Economic Life: Goldman Sachs says the Euro Stoxx 600 index could rise 26 per cent in the next year, opening the door for investors in Europe's leading companies - 3rd December 2010
 * long view says the cuts are not deep enough'' - My instinct is that the OBR's growth forecasts will probably turn out to be OK but that they are too optimistic about tax revenue - 30th November
 * thank goodness we're not in the eurozone...but our debt is terrifying'' - Economic View: The eurozone's troubles are not over by any means, and though I personally think the currency will survive this cycle - 28th November
 * crisis will change Europe forever'' - Markets sometimes move very fast. And so it has been with Ireland - 24th November
 * travails may be short-lived, but the eurozone's future is not bright'' - Economic View: Well, the game is over – or at least it will be in the next few days. Even a week ago the Irish government thought it could get by without external support. But things move very fast in financial markets and the gap between being a government being in control of events and losing control is a tiny one. It is a salutary lesson for us all - 21st November
 * all the sound and the fury, the UK recovery is still on track'' - Economic Life: We are still spending five pounds for every four pounds of income and you don't need to look across the Irish Sea to know where that leads - 19th November
 * defaults in the eurozone are inevitable'' - It is about Ireland of course. But it is not just about Ireland - 17th November
 * shift of global power from West to East needs careful management'' - Economic View: The Group of Twenty meeting in Seoul is important – but not because anything important is likely to come out of it - 14th November
 * summit marks a shift in power to the East'' - Power is shifting East and if you want to take a moment when this has become glaringly evident, this week in Seoul is as good as any - 12th November
 * it time to return to the gold standard?'' - There is something ludicrous about imparting such special worth to something that is inherently worthless - 10th November
 * mind the quantity, it's the quality that counts as QE hits the end of the line'' - Economic View: Beware the sizzle, at least until you taste the quality of the steak - 7th November
 * problems remain, but the eurozone's big three are bouncing back'' - Economic Life: The main reason for Germany's impressive recovery is that its export industries have benefited massively from the boom in the emerging world - 5th November
 * path to recovery has diverged from America's'' - We are not there yet and won't be for some months to come but it is time to start thinking about the first rise in UK interest rates - 3rd November
 * defeats for Democrats could spell out economic recovery for Obama'' - Outlook: An annual growth rate of 2 per cent is poor, but US GDP is now only 0.8 per cent below its previous peak in the fourth quarter of 2007 - 1st November
 * battering Obama takes in this week's poll, he must rein in the US deficit'' - Economic View from Washington DC - 31st October
 * that help cut the Coalition a bit of slack'' - The long march back to full output continues. The UK economy has now regained a bit more than one-third of the ground lost as a result of recession - 27th October
 * happened in the Eighties shows the cuts were right and we will recover'' - Economic view: It has been, for obvious reasons, a troubling week, and that is true whatever your judgement on the need for and impact of the spending cuts - 24th October
 * your nerves, for this painful economic recovery could take years'' - Economic Life: Given the generally sombre outlook, you would hardly expect consumer sales to be booming, but they have not been bad this spring and summer - 22nd October
 * Wednesday: The future starts here'' - why the cuts signal a new era of lower ambitions for government and a shrinking public sector - 20th October
 * new rule book for the Eurozone'' - France and Germany try to figure out preventing another breakdown in confidence in the Eurozone - 20th October
 * needs a rise in production to create a healthier, stronger future'' - Economic View: 'C Day" – cuts day – is Wednesday. The cuts will be greeted with a wall of sound: a raft of concern and anger, but mixed I expect with some relief - 17th October
 * this a genuine recovery or just a bubble caused by central banks' easy money?'' - Economic Life: On a 10-year view or even a three-year view, investing in the emerging markets is a no brainer. On a six-month view that may not be the case - 15th October
 * must stay out of this US-China tussle'' - In currency wars, as in real wars, non-combatants sometimes get caught in the crossfire. And so it may be for Europe and the UK after an increasingly noisy series of skirmishes between the US and China - 13th October
 * there be a currency war? Maybe not, but countries are being selfish'' - Economic View: It is World Bank and International Monetary Fund time again – the weekend when the finance ministers and central bankers of the world gather at the twin institutions' headquarters in Washington for a string of meetings - 10th October
 * messy skirmishes in currency manipulation lead to all-out war?'' - Economic Life: Is the UK policy of quantitative easing aiming to make it easier for companies to borrow money, or is it trying to weaken sterling? - 8th October
 * lesson in order from emerging nations'' - How can India have become such an economic powerhouse? - 6th October
 * the old Treasury discipline is back – but there may still be bad calls on cuts'' - Economic View: The pace towards the comprehensive spending review, out on 20 October, steps up. Several of the ministers have agreed spending targets for their departments with the Treasury and have joined the so-called Star Chamber, the committee that bashes out the final agreement - 3rd October
 * Europe's protests continue, expect countries to turn on one another'' - Economic Life: Tensions within the eurozone will grow as it is perceived that the core countries benefit from membership while the fringe ones suffer - 1st October
 * give up on the Celtic Tiger just yet'' - It is possible Ireland will seek support from the EU, but it will probably scramble through - 1st October
 * back the usury laws'' - So should we all, as the man from the Bank of England urges, spend more to pull the economy out of recession? - 29th September
 * Eurozone states are working hard to rectify mistakes'' - Outlook: Ireland's industrial production is back to its pre-crisis peak, a tribute to the extent to which it has cutits costs - 27th September
 * output is on the up, but it will be a while before we see it here in Britain'' - Economic View: Industrial output in the world economy is now ahead of its peak of early 2008 - 26th September
 * should not have to bankroll another meltdown'' - Banking will, in another decade, be different. But just how different will be determined in the US, Continental Europe and China, as much as in the UK - 25th September
 * a recovery is the least of our woes'' - Everyone is worrying about the recovery. They shouldn't - 22nd September
 * to spend? Tut tut. These days the fashion is to pay off our debts'' - We still want to own our own home but we don't want to have to borrow to do so. It is of course a bit early to start to think about the changes to behaviour that this period of wobbly house prices and very low deposit rates might be generating - 19th September
 * isn't working and the rest of the world should be alarmed'' - Economic Life: There are deep-seated concerns that the US workforce has too long a tail of less-skilled people doing jobs that can be done abroad by workers on lower wages - 17th September
 * the EU has been unable to create jobs'' - Unemployment is Europe's catastrophe - 16th September
 * must change our view of inflation'' - For most people, inflation has Jekyll and Hyde characteristics. On the one hand, when share prices or house prices are going up, most people would regard that as positive, whereas when the price of food or petrol rises, just about everyone would fret - 15th September
 * do we want? An independent OBR that can see far into the future'' - Well, first of all a welcome to Robert Chote at the Office for Budgetary Responsibility, as foreshadowed in these columns last week - 12th September
 * dance this winter will probably be two steps forward and one step back'' - Economic Life: Consumer demand can be inflated for a while by policies such as cash rebates on cars or tax breaks on home sales. But when these run out demand flops back - 10th September
 * Brown, not officials, for this cock-up'' - Are you one in six millions and got your letter from the tax people yet? - 8th September
 * may be a virtue, but sometimes it pays to speculate'' - Economic view: Patience is a virtue in so many aspects of human endeavour, so how do you harness it to create more stable and better-functioning financial markets? - 5th September
 * of foreboding in markets is not warranted by world growth prospects'' - Economic Life: The world economy will continue to grow through the economic cycle but much of that growth will be in the emerging world rather than the developed one - 3rd September
 * we can learn from Germany'' - We need to learn from Germany. No, not how to recreate an engineering-based economy, though this is currently a fashionable notion, but rather how to maintain financial discipline through the global downturn and deliver solid growth as demand resumes - 1st September
 * debt mountain is the backdrop to the bankers' bash in the Rockies'' - Economic view: Hols are over, so welcome back to the world of work and to whatever autumn may hold - 29th August
 * spending for sure but also a chance to steal a march on our rivals'' - Economic Life: There will, for the governments of half a generation, be little or no increase in their real spending: they will be like pensioners living on fixed incomes - 13th August
 * to be cheerful? Well, exports are up, rates are low...'' - If recession is deeply painful, recovery is frustrating and confused as the process periodically pauses - 12th August
 * Bank is right to paint a mixed picture'' - Can the British economy really grow at a rate of more than 3 per cent next year? - 11th August
 * winter won't be fun, but 2011 could be a belter...happy holidays!'' - Economic view: So can we go off on holiday with a spring in our step, secure in the knowledge that when we come back there will still be a growing economy to greet us? - 8th August
 * narrowing the gap but we still depend too much on service exports'' - Economic Life: Last year's surplus on finance and business services covered more than half our deficit on physical trade - and that was in a bad year for these industries - 6th August
 * a football club'' - If China is indeed about to buy into Liverpool it would represent a new direction in its investment programme - 6th August
 * think what the City has done for us'' - What is Britain's biggest export industry? Engineering? Oil? Tourism? Er, no. It is banking - 4th August
 * age of portfolio workers begins as the age of retirement, er, retires'' - Economic view: Sometimes you write something and you're not sure it is right. Well, you might think that this thought should occur to journalists more often, for as a profession we are not noted for our humility - 1st August
 * ages are out of date: we live longer, so we must work longer'' - Economic Life: One aim of this change is to nudge people into a new mind-set about the way they will think about their careers or, you might even say, their lives - 30th July
 * subtle hand we must play on trade'' - It is not just about the BRICs - 28th July
 * some good news at last – but we still have a steep road to travel'' - Economic View: Phew! Some decent growth for the UK economy at last - 25th July
 * is no good squealing about dodgy borrowers who cannot get bank credit'' - Economic Life: Banks as a whole will not be able to help much in financing the recovery. Some will, many won't, and for some banks the game is simply survival - 23rd July
 * if revenues fail to recover?'' - Could the UK become the new Japan? - 21st July
 * is on the up, but don't get carried away by better holiday rates'' - Economic view: Bought your holiday currency yet? Slightly better rate, eh? - 18th July
 * face profound change – and it's not only China that is mapping the path'' - Economic Life: Rising consumer demand in the emerging world will become an increasingly important contributor to overall growth, and this is an opportunity - 16th July
 * have to plan for a bigger population'' - So by 2051 Britain's population is to grow to nearly 78 million - 14th July
 * pay attention to our service sector: you know it makes sense'' - Economic view: The trade figures don't look good; not dreadful, just not as good as they ought to be given what else we know about the economy - 11th July
 * those about to suffer from cuts the mood is surprisingly upbeat'' - The way in which the private sector has tried to keep its labour force together has been really impressive... the direst predictions have been proved wrong - 9th July
 * our graduates compete globally?'' - So there are, as the headline on our front page yesterday highlighted, 69 graduates for every job vacancy - 7th July
 * be a double dip. But if the world grows, we'll trudge upwards'' - Economic view: How seriously should we take the fears of a double dip to the recession? - 4th July
 * double dip is likely but it will not slip into a depression'' - European banks hold large amounts of sovereign debt of the 'Club Med' countries. Those securities are trading well below the price they paid - 2nd July
 * all good migrants are skilled migrants'' - So the country is, in the words of the Chancellor, "open for business". But we are not open for talented people – or at least not as open as we were before the new cap on inward migration was imposed - 30th June
 * but not out'' - Sporting defeat is painful to watch and worse to experience. But off the pitch, failure is more complex – and may even be useful - 29th June
 * fireworks at the G20 please, let's just sort out deficits and banking'' - Economic view: It is the first Group of Twenty economic summit for our new government, and at a tricky time for all - 27th June
 * are at a crucial stage for Europe but what if China turns off the tap to the US?'' - Austerity moves may persuade the markets most weaker eurozone countries are good for their money. Equally, they might decide the US is not a safe haven - 25th June
 * will be savage – but we'll be back on the road to normality'' - 20th June
 * time for regulators to be more judgemental about risk-takers'' - Economic Life: 'Regulators have avoided judging culture and behaviour as it has been seen as too judgemental a role. This onedimensional approach has to be questioned' - 18th June
 * need new means to control deficits'' - The new Government has to cut back spending and the only issue is how far and how fast it should go along that - 16th June
 * must use the next five years of growth to prepare for a downturn'' - Well, we are on the glide-path to the emergency Budget in nine days' time and upon my word, what a bumpy ride it has been - 13th June
 * First World debt crisis only serves to hasten the shift of power to the East'' - Economic Life: The problem is not just public debt. It is total debt. The governments of the developed world have over-borrowed but so have consumers and companies - 11th June
 * running out of time to put things right'' - There is going to be a double dip. Or to put it more precisely, some economies will experience a fall-back in output - 9th June
 * club of the old, developed world is no more – now the forum is global'' - The Group of 20 finance ministers are meeting this weekend in South Korea, in the southern port city of Busan - 6th June
 * may have to step in where companies fear to tread'' - Economic Life: Any other company, particularly a foreign one, will now think twice about investing in technically demanding oil exploration in the US - 4th June
 * not get nasty over others' pay'' - So there are more than 170 civil servants who earn more than the PM - 2nd June
 * the economy, Mr Cameron. It can't suddenly be 'transformed''' - Economic view: The Prime Minister's assertion that the Government will "transform" the economy carries the danger that it will sit alongside his predecessor's boast that he had abolished "boom and bust" - 30th May
 * surge in inflation is the result of a cock-up, not a conspiracy'' - Economic Life: I still think we will get the first increase in rates before the autumn is out but that need be no disaster - 28th May
 * market panic needn't unnerve us'' - The main world economies are inching forward and companies around the world are reporting a rise in demand - 26th May
 * savage start? Maybe, but this is just the very beginning'' - All European governments have been under pressure to cut their deficits but the plight of Greece gave this a new urgency - 25th May
 * take note: ill-judged remarks could damage the recovery'' - Economic view: The clash between politicians and the financial markets is becoming more ugly, most notably in Europe. The decision by Angela Merkel to go on the attack spooked the markets, which in effect froze - 23rd May
 * future without the euro is a possibility'' -The global recession has changed everything, exposing grave structural problems within the European economy - 22nd May
 * euro should survive this crisis, but it won't get through the next one'' - Economic Life: When politics and markets clash, markets win in the end. There may, however, be a lot of collateral damage on the way - 21st May
 * new language to discuss spending'' - Politics are back but for the moment at least economics is on hold. The new parliament is functioning but the massive shift in economic policy that is about to occur is not yet upon us - 20th May
 * new language to discuss spending'' - Politics are back but for the moment at least economics is on hold - 19th May
 * winds of change are blowing over the eurozone – and the UK too'' - Economic View: And now to the economics...and to that disagreeable process called “fiscal consolidation”. That will be the governing theme of public affairs for the next decade throughout the developed world - 16th May
 * biggest poser for the new Government: where will the growth come from?'' - Policymakers assumed that the tax boost was the result of an improved structural growth rate, whereas it was the result of an unsustainable cyclical boom - 14th May
 * leadership needs the stamp of a genuinely new era'' - Labour needs to occupy the Opposition benches with its taste for power intact, as it failed to do after Thatcher's victory in 1979 - 12th May
 * is tight – and so is time'' - First the politics; next the economics - 12th May
 * will be a bumpy ride but, politics apart, we are headed for recovery'' - The economic outlook is easier to see than the political one. This works both nationally and internationally. We can see that there will have to be a second budget here this summer - 9th May
 * social glue binding the eurozone together is weak – and strains will increase'' - Economic Life: Once trust is lost that debts will be met when they fall due, it takes an age to rebuild. That loss of trust is spreading further across southern Europe every day - 7th May
 * must all take our Greek medicine'' - Greece is the shape of things to come - 5th May
 * the end of an error, but it may take some time to get back on track'' - Economic view: The politics are about to move and the economics will not be far behind - 2nd May
 * it or not, an age of austerity beckons'' - The next government will have to borrow something upwards of £500 billion over the next five years and much of that will have to come from abroad. We don't have the savings in Britain to fund a deficit of this size - 28th April
 * not government, is the way to fix the UK's economic mess'' - Economic view: So what is really happening to our economy? This ought not to be a political issue, but I fear it has, perhaps inevitably, become so. It ought not to be political for two reasons - 25th April
 * election will not ultimately determine the route of Britain's recovery'' - Economic Life: What really matters is the global recovery, which we expect will be led by emerging nations. But China is already showing signs of overheating - 23rd April
 * pull the levers but to little effect'' - What does a hung parliament do to the economy? - 21st April
 * down to earth'' - Lessons are to be learned from this event that has brought a continent to a standstill - 20th April
 * future is out of our hands'' - Tools government has to influence the economy are less effective than before - 14th April
 * the man who must inherit the red box...'' - What, if anything, can the would-be chancellors do about the economy? - 8th April
 * are not doomed to collapse when governments withdraw support'' - Economic View: Concerns now focus on the durability of the recovery and in particular the extent to which it is artificial in the sense that it has been puffed up by huge budget deficits and negative real interest rates - 4th April
 * happiness can tell us a great deal about governments'' - Economic Life: To increase its citizens' happiness, the main thing a government should strive for is competence - 2nd April
 * with China will never be easy'' - I also detect a sense of moral superiority in the Chinese attitude towards us now - 31st March
 * will use inflation to cheat their way out of debt'' - Economic view: The common feature of both main parties' plans will be – because there has to be – a credible programme to get the deficit down over the next five years - 28th March
 * what on earth should investors do with their money?'' - Economic Life: Second day thoughts on Budgets are usually better than initial ones, for the devil is usually in the detail. But this year it is different - 26th March
 * Budget was a bit of a dud...'' - ... but whoever wins in May will walk into a minefield - 25th March
 * can't do that much'' - Budgets matter for what they do to public finances, not what they do to the economy - 24th March
 * more women go to work, it means we play happier families at home'' - It is good to get away, particularly at a time like this, and a day last week in Sweden talking with trade unionists was a welcome relief from the febrile pre-Budget, pre-election mood in Britain - 21st March
 * Irish eyes are smiling again it will be good news for the UK too'' - Economic Life: The EC was critical of Ireland's performance but there are small signs that confidence is returning - 19th March
 * fewer things but do them better'' - We need a different sort of politics - not ringing phrases but competent rule - 17th March
 * you think we live in a two-tier system now? It will get a lot worse'' - Economic view: It is time to stand back. We do now at last have a Budget date, Wednesday week, and with it we have in effect the start of the election campaign - 14th March
 * be dispirited: recoveries do happen, but they take time'' - Economic Life: So there is a date at last for the first of the Budgets this year, 24 March. You might think it a strange business that the Treasury is only able to confirm the date two weeks ahead, the shortest lead time I ever recall, but that will be the least strange aspect to it all - 12th March
 * write off the US economy'' - China and India may be growing faster but in technical innovation there's no contest - 10th March
 * is growing, but don't expect it to rescue the economy'' - Economic view: Manufacturing is back. Not only is output in Britain finally climbing, but we had data last week that suggested manufacturers were more positive about prospects than at any time since 1994 - 7th March
 * we created a commodities bubble that could derail recovery?'' - Economic Life: The rise in commodity prices is, in some measure, the result of loose monetary policy - 5th March
 * turn to experience a dose of reality'' - The temptation is to pile pressure on the corporation. We must resist it - 3rd March
 * says voters like big spending governments...it's wrong'' - Economic view: Don't take any of this too seriously but there are some signs that the tide of economic news, which has for the past couple of months tended to favour the Government, may now shift and be starting to favour the Opposition - 28th February
 * double dip, then recovery. But what will drive our future growth?'' - Economic Life: We assume that financial innovation happens in the West, but it may move the other way - 26th February
 * was never going to be easy'' - There has been some growth, and that is a relief, but now the slog has begun - 24th February
 * year's fiscal options are limited whatever bickering economists say'' - Economic view: whoever forms the next government, the policy will be pretty much the same - 21st February
 * in tax receipts leaves us with debts that could soon top GDP'' - Economic Life: Higher tax rates are unlikely to bring in additional revenue as people will adjust their behaviour, by retiring earlier, for example - 19th February
 * inflation genie is out of the bottle'' - We should be aware that low interest rates may not last many more months - 17th February
 * countries really must start running a surplus – sharpish'' - Economic View: It was a difficult week for the eurozone but not as disastrous as it might at first sight seem. And that has lessons for us and other developed nations - 14th February
 * in enormous debt, do as the Greeks must do: tighten your belt'' - Economic Life: One troubling aspect of the past boom was the dependence on financial services to drive growth - 12th February
 * Greece and we help ourselves'' - The consequences of a Eurozone member not repaying its debt would be unthinkable - 10th February
 * the eurozone will bail out Greece, but its currency has taken a battering'' - Fear is back. It is perfectly normal at this stage of an economic recovery for there to be a bump in both stock-market sentiment and growth in the real economy – indeed these columns warned of the likelihood of this last month - 7th February
 * weakest will be bailed out'' - Unless confidence is restored in weaker countries, borrowing costs will rise - 6th February
 * for normal interest rates... and the rise could be a sharp one'' - Economic life: Investors need to be persuaded that the country will not try to inflate away the real value of the debt - 5th February
 * and India show us the way'' - The evidence of the shift of power becomes harder and harder to deny - 3rd February
 * growth for the UK – but will we drop back into recession?'' - Economic view: Some growth at last for the UK economy, but could we be heading for the dreaded "double dip"? - 31st January
 * of Greece will be a warning for other weak nations'' - Economic Life: Questions will be asked about the sustainability of the finances of all governments - 29th January
 * time let's not waste growth'' - We need to think not just about how to get richer but how to use wealth more wisely - 27th January
 * President's plan should be global and belie its naive rhetoric'' - Economic view: The simple questions are the toughest to answer. I got a series from a thoughtful reader last week and her first one was how big did a bank have to be to be "too big to fail" - 24th January
 * is a hungry teenager eating up resources – and we can't stop it'' - Economic Life: China becoming world economic leader is no further in the future than Major becoming PM was in the past - 22nd January
 * sweet deal - or hard to swallow?'' - We know deep down, don't we, that the Kraft takeover will end in tears - 20th January
 * recovery will not depend on the politicians, but on banks' customers'' - It is an obvious paradox. Governments around the world want to get back for taxpayers the money they have spent on supporting the banks. But the more money they try to take back, the more they are likely to curb the ability of the banks to extend credit and hence support growth - 17th January
 * shaping up to be a year of two halves: first the pain, then the gain'' - Economic Life: If there is a sell-off in the next few weeks, it will be a consolidation of the bull market, not the end of it - 15th January
 * the cheap money while it lasts'' - There is a troubling possibility that rising interest rates will choke off the recovery - 13th January
 * Science of Success: what works – and why'' - When Hamish McRae set out to discover the secrets of the world's most successful organisations, communities and companies, he found eye-opening life lessons for us all - 11th January
 * reasons to be cheerful in the bumpy months ahead of us'' - By the end of the year, the recovery will be in place and we can look to a much brighter 2011 - 4th January



Articles: 2009

 * set to improve after upcoming blip'' - If our economy is to keep growing, the next government will need to support consumptionto offset the decline that will take place in government spending - 29th December
 * optimism that has drained away'' - It is, from an economic perspective, a sombre end to a sombre year - 24th December
 * It's been a shocker. 2010? It will be better, but still not much fun'' - 20th December
 * is proving to be the key to bouncing back from recession'' - Economic Life: As we have all seen in our daily lives, shops have been innovative in creating value deals and cutting prices - 18th December
 * have a lot to learn from Ireland'' - The biggest lesson is that, if a country has to impose austerity, do so swiftly - 16th December
 * credibility is on a knife edge – and this spring could be nasty indeed'' - Economic view: It is, in a funny way, easier to see what will happen in two to three years' time than what will happen in the next two to three months - 13th December
 * have chance to make history'' - Economic Life: In a generation's time, governments may not even have the sole power to determine tax levels - 11th December
 * time we had some rules – and stuck to them'' - It will be future generations that will have to work to pay off these debts - 10th December
 * the end it's the deficit that counts''- I am confident about the economic recovery but the fiscal position is dreadful - 9th December
 * be a tricky week, but Goldman's optimism offers renewed cheer'' - Economic View: This week will be one of information overload, and information, I fear, of a pretty depressing nature - 6th December
 * are past the worst – but there are still disappointments to come'' - Economic Life: As long as the world economy has the prospect of further growth, markets have the same prospect - 4th December
 * if you must, but do so effectively'' - First and foremost tax must raise revenue; but then only at the lowest possible cost - 2nd December
 * sands: Will the emirate's default push us into another crash?'' - after the events of the past week you have to answer a question: is Dubai World the new Lehman Brothers? - 29th November
 * crisis will prompt investors to look critically at sovereign debt'' - Economic Life: Dubai made the classic mistake that the maturity of the debt did not matter as it could always be rolled over - 27th November
 * time for giving with a difference'' - With the recession, there is a shift from giving people things to giving them services - 25th November
 * created this catastrophe – and now we must find a way to cure it'' - Economic view: What is the world going to do about budget deficits? Yes, the world, because while this is a particularly serious problem for the UK, it is a problem for almost every developed country - 22nd November
 * rises are inevitable – but will need a lot of explaining to voters'' - Economic Life: Putting the public finances on to a credible basis will be the principle task of the next government - 20th November
 * will soon export its ideas as well'' - It will not quite have the significance of Nixon in China – I can't see an opera about it – but President Obama's visit there does have huge significance - 18th November
 * Europe's return to growth. Then prepare to face the next crisis'' - Phew! Europe is growing again. Yes, I know that according to the official statistics the UK is not yet part of that growth but the more I look at the other data the more convinced I am that our stats are wrong and that eventually it will be shown that some growth began in Britain in the third quarter - 15th November
 * world that is now divided into the haves and the have-debts'' - Economic Life: The sorting out that results from the debt load has hardly begun and will be a lasting legacy of this cycle - 13th November
 * no choice but to keep inflating'' - A bubble or not a bubble? Right now I think the best answer is not yet - 11th November
 * the world needs now is a round of golf – between leaders of the G20'' - The G20 finance ministers are gathering this weekend in St Andrews, not to play golf but to knock economic policy ideas about - 8th November
 * is returning but what will happen when QE is wound up?'' - Economic Life: There is an artificial element to the growth which people are worrying about - 6th November
 * bank bailout is the right idea'' - As growth resumes, the economy will need to find a way of financing it - 4th November
 * easing must end soon'' - The question is what happens next - 1st November
 * celebrate US growth, but this recovery will be far from smooth'' - Economic Life: Even if US growth is sustained, there is a profound danger that it will be a jobless recovery - 30th October
 * for a period of sullen calm'' - I find it troubling that people think it better to have a smaller financial industry - 28th October
 * figures are shocking, the cures are not working – but it isn't all that bad'' - Assuming these new official figures are right, this downturn looks like being worse than that of the early 1980s, in depth if not yet in duration, as measured by the time taken to get back to the previous peak. That calls for some serious rethinking - 25th October
 * green shoots have failed to take root, so far'' - it seems that just about every bit of the economy was down, including the largest single element of it, private sector services - 24th October
 * we go back to the future to avert another banking crisis?'' - Economic Life: The level of animosity between the Treasury and the Bank is unusually high by historical standards - 23rd October
 * holds the key to the future'' - Technology is the engine of global growth, not politics or law, not even business - 21st October
 * the road to recovery, a modest optimism points the way ahead'' - A turning point at last? This week we should get confirmation in the GDP figures that the UK economy has bottomed out in the July-September quarter - 18th October
 * bulls are back, so expect the Footsie to hit 6,000 next year'' - Economic Life: We are just starting to appreciate what the recession has done to improve corporate performance - 16th October
 * what is the state really for?'' - If it's outcomes that matter not methods, then why should it collect all taxes? - 14th October
 * public-spending squeeze will be much tighter than people expect'' - People still don't get it. And we don't get it because we aren't being given it. The "it" is the scale of the squeeze on public spending that is about to happen, whosoever wins the coming election - 11th October
 * the soaring gold price should set alarm bells ringing'' - It is a squawk of alarm – but is it alarm about the threat of inflation in general, or about the long-term value of the dollar? - 9th October
 * longer ought to be an opportunity, not a curse'' - The challenge is to create communities of older people who can look after themselves - 7th October
 * a new world order dawns, the big institutions will have to wake up'' - If international meetings could revive the world economy we would be swinging along by now - 4th October
 * worried about the risk of inflation take a shine to gold'' - So the International Monetary Fund now expects things to be rather better than previously forecast. About time too - 2nd October
 * could bring on a 'yes' vote'' - In Ireland there is anger and despair – but with some resolution mixed in - 30th September
 * communiqué signals transfer of power to the emerging world'' - The baton is being passed. If you wanted to pick a day when the developed world accepted that economic power was shifting to the emerging nations, last Friday is as good as any - 27th September
 * summit doomed to a legacy of economic disappointmen'' - The April G20 meeting was perceived as a success. I fear the Pittsburgh one may be seen more as a failure - 25th September
 * governments get it right'' - The question now is how to choreograph the recovery and get the balance right - 23rd September
 * hurt – but they can offer us an opportunity to do things better too'' - The period of denial is over. At last the Government is confronting the fiscal catastrophe it has created and is starting to look for ways of cutting spending. The Treasury is calling in the various departments to get them to set out what savings they might be able to make - 20th September
 * signs that capital flows will be slow to recover'' - Up to now most people have focused on those issues nearest home, for obvious reasons. Here in the UK we are still desperately worried about still-rising unemployment and about the impact on the public finances - 18th September
 * recovery is a race against time'' - When politics and economics clash, economics eventually wins - 16th September
 * need UK talent in the driving seat for car industry to get back on track'' - It does not look good. The sale of Vauxhall – and the much larger Opel – by General Motors coincided with the publication of the report into the circumstances of Rover's demise under the tutelage of the "Phoenix Four" - 13th September
 * selling our treasured assets to foreigners can make a lot of sense'' - Would it matter if Cadbury were to fall into US ownership? Should we care that Opel and Vauxhall are being bought by a Canadian-led consortium? - 11th September
 * lesson from America in how to improve our health'' - Obama is prepared to tell people to change their behaviour. But would Brown be? - 9th September
 * election, what do the Japanese really want to do with their country?'' - Economic Life: The new government may encourage greater competition to the domestic market - 1st September
 * back to work we go, and there's hope in the air – but is it justified?'' - It is not quite end of the holidays yet but we are going to have to get back to work pretty soon. So will it be an autumn of recovery? And if the answer to that is yes, which I am pretty sure it is, what about the prospects beyond? - 30th August
 * Turner's tax is a trauma too far for our biggest foreign earner'' - Well, Lord Turner certainly knows how to set the cat among the pigeons, doesn't he? The new head of the Financial Services Authority celebrates his appointment by rubbishing the industry he is supposed to regulating. Some banking activities are "socially useless", there ought to be an international tax on financial trading to cut bank profits, and so on - 28th August
 * need to do more and email less'' - Do you BlackBerry on holiday? Come on, own up - 26th August
 * the old certainties – the times are changing faster than you think'' - Reading this on your laptop? Recessions speed up structural change in the sense that they make things that almost certainly would have happened anyway take place more swiftly - 23rd August
 * Britain will not default despite the dreadful state of public finances'' - it is not what politicians or indeed journalists think about the deficit that matters. It is what the markets think, and so far they have been pretty sanguine about it - 21st August
 * attention: this is a stupid idea'' - The cost of pay freezes and high taxes was a culture of duplicity, envy and hypocrisy - 19th August
 * and France do not make a recovery, but things are on the up'' - So the recession is officially over in Germany and France. Phew! Both countries recorded reasonable growth in the second quarter and though the eurozone as a whole was down a little, the fact that its two largest economies should be ahead is good news - 16th August
 * talk is over, now the recovery speculation begins...'' - The question has changed. It is no longer: "When will the recession end?" It is now: "What shape will the recovery take?" That applies to us here in the UK, to Continental Europe, to the US, to Japan, indeed to the entire developed world - 14th August
 * jobs market has changed for ever'' - Many of the jobs will be part-time, with a continuous rise in self-employment - 12th August
 * takes more than a few summer hols at home to save the national accounts'' - Gone abroad for your hols, then? Reading this on-line on your laptop by the pool? Or, like so many other Britons, is this the year you've stayed close to home? If you are spending sterling rather than foreign currency, you will be making a modest contribution to narrowing the balance of payments current account deficit - 2nd August
 * people are no longer ready to accept economic failure'' - If the DPJ is returned with a clear majority, there is the prospect of a sharp change in direction. The analogy would be the sort of change that Margaret Thatcher brought to Britain in 1979 - 31st July
 * Chinese are our teachers now'' - Viewed objectively China has managed the downturn better than the US or UK - 29th July
 * shouldn't scrap the FSA until we know exactly what will replace it'' - 26th July
 * GDP figures were profoundly gloomy ... but they were wrong'' - We are not through this one yet by any means. On Friday, the numbers for second-quarter GDP showed that the economy was not only still shrinking, but shrinking by more than independent economists had predicted - 26th July
 * that survive will emerge from the recession in better shape'' - Anyone arguing that there are upsides to the downturn becomes the target for abuse from the many people who have found their lives savaged by recession - 24th July
 * will bring a new set of problems'' - It is a horror story in slow motion, as every month the Government's borrowing rises yet higher - 22nd July
 * brave new world of deflation need not be all bad'' - We'll have to get used to a period when prices - and wages - go up as well as down - 19th July
 * is a chance to reboot the world's development machine'' - China seems to be managing to sustain growth at around 8 per cent a year while India looks like achieving somewhere between 6 per cent and 7 per cent. So has the developing world managed to come through the global downturn in good shape after all? - 17th July
 * brave new world of deflation need not be all bad'' - We'll have to get used to a period when prices - and wages - go up as well as down - 15th July
 * grandstanding, dear leaders, and just learn from your G8 friends'' - The most useful thing would be for Western leaders to learn a little from the leaders of countries doing rather better than their own. Is it too optimistic to hope that maybe something will rub off? - 12th July
 * need an exit strategy from the Bank of England's costly policies'' - So what's your guess: how long will it be before the Bank of England brings in its first rise in interest rates? - 10th July 2009
 * downturn is changing America for the better'' - People are spending less and saving more. There is a return to self-reliance in the US - 8th July
 * only confuses economics'' - The best that can be expected by next summer is an uncertain recovery - 5th July
 * and survive: Making a brand new start of it in old New York'' - 5th July
 * re-examines its values after shattering blow to its wealth'' - Economic Life in New York - 3rd July
 * only confuses economics'' - The best that can be expected by next summer is an uncertain recovery - 1st July
 * has a mountain to climb'' - Economic Life: The ability and the willingness of banks to lend is going to be constrained for some time - 26th June
 * beckons. But it won't be easy'' - It is time to move on. In the past few weeks three things about the world economy have become clear - 24th June
 * recession may be over, but the recovery could lag behind for years'' - The end of the recession? The National Institute says yes and Alistair Darling says no. So who are we to believe? I think both are right, and if that is just another confusing and infuriating economist-type comment, bear with me and let me try to explain - 14th June
 * on the way to being the world's most important currency'' - The road to a world of multiple reserve currencies will be a bumpy one, and people will get hurt - 12th June
 * growing public-private divide'' - The chasm in attitude between the private and public sectors is wider than at any stage since the 1970s - 10th June
 * must seize the opportunity to radically rethink our government'' - Politics move more quickly than economics. The events of the past week may mean that the present Government can hang on a little longer, and those of us who expected Alistair Darling to be replaced by Ed Balls have been proved wrong - 7th June
 * focus switches to the next Chancellor – and the one after that'' - Brown resigns; pound plunges. Eh? That isn't quite what the political scriptwriters have been drafting - 5th June
 * only we cared about the European Parliament'' - Until people confront Europe's failure, things cannot change - 3rd June
 * last, shafts of light are shining in the windows of the housing market'' - Might the housing market be on the turn? It is a tantalising possibility and something that hardly anyone was predicting even a couple of months ago - 31st May
 * cost of the US government's borrowing could be the recovery'' - Maybe it isn't such a great idea for the US government to be borrowing so much money. We see the shift in perception of US financial probity in the dollar/sterling exchange rate but there is something more troubling going on: longer-term US interest rates are on the rise - 29th May
 * has power. But that's not enough'' - Where economies are booming is also where there is political instability - 27th May
 * politicians are starting to feel the heat – and it's only going to get hotter'' - It takes a while for messages to sink in. We are gradually becoming aware, here in Britain and elsewhere in the developed world, of the fiscal cost of this recession and the effect that will have on the pace of the recovery - 24th May
 * fiscal position is even worse – will it lose its AAA rating?'' - Don't worry about Britain losing its AAA credit rating, but do worry about the rise in country debt here and indeed in pretty much every developed country in the world - 22nd May
 * out as India sprints ahead'' - On present trends India will pass the UK in the size of its economy in about 10 years' time - 20th May
 * reasons for thinking that the next share-price boom has already started'' - What is risk? Let's start with a question. Suppose 15 years ago you had perfect foresight and knew that the world economy was going to have the strongest period of growth that it would ever experience and that company profits as a percentage of GDP would rise to unprecedented levels. With that knowledge, what would you expect to happen to share prices? - 17th May
 * instincts say the Bank has no reason to be so pessimistic'' - To be frank, I don't have very good reasons for believing that, but intuition says the Bank is too gloomy, and when reason and intuition clash, the latter is usually the better guide - 15th May
 * charities come to our rescue?'' - A public-service revolution looms – and the voluntary sector does wonderful things - 13th May
 * may take many years to recover, but the City is still pulling in the cash'' - 10th May
 * Treasury's predictions of recovery might just be right'' - A turning point for the UK economy in the autumn? Most commentators now feel that the latest data coming through – in particular the purchasing managers' survey earlier this week – does suggest that some sort of economic recovery is in sight - 8th May
 * huge experiment has failed'' - It was the largest peacetime rise in public spending that has ever taken place - 6th May
 * worst time to suffer a pandemic'' - We know a lot about the impact on economies of health emergencies - 3rd May
 * look on the bright side as a little fragile confidence returns'' - The mood of the world economy darkens further; the mood of the financial markets lifts a little - 1st May
 * worst time to suffer a pandemic'' - We know a lot about the impact on economies of health emergencies - 29th April
 * of New Labour draws to a close with deceit and dishonesty'' - The electorate cannot have that spending level, or anything like it, without higher tax - 23rd April
 * should start by admitting we've failed as an economy'' - Today's Budget will give us a glimpse of the future - 22nd April
 * grim shape of budgets to come'' - What we face is not higher taxes or lower public expenditure, but both - 19th April
 * recession will hasten the shift to a new economic world order'' - Both China and India, the two largest emerging economies, have been hit by the global downturn, but both look like growing by around 6 per cent this year, whereas the average growth in the developed world looks like being minus 3 per cent - 17th April
 * grim shape of budgets to come'' - Economic management changes ahead of political power - 15th April
 * downturn will go on...'' - ... but the G20 deal should restore confidence - 3rd April
 * real summit has been between China and the US'' - The theatre gets in the way of the substance at the G20 - 2nd April
 * West is losing the high ground as power shifts to the emerging nations'' - What will the global economy be like when the West no longer calls the shots? We will begin to get a glimpse this week at the Group of 20 meeting in London - 29th March
 * depths of pessimism should make equity investors optimistic'' - This column should start with a public health warning. It is that what follows may prove completely wrong. I say that because I want to make the case for buying equities at this stage of the cycle... - 27th March 2009
 * madness of our inflation indices'' - A world of falling but uncertain prices is a world unconducive to growth - 25th March
 * could return to growth next year but that won't cure our fiscal hangover'' - It is back to the 1970s, for the International Monetary Fund has kicked Britain again. We have not yet had to go cap in hand for a loan, as the Labour government did in 1976, though that cannot be ruled out. But if the new IMF forecasts are right, Britain will have the worst fiscal deficit of any G7 nation and be the second-worst- performing economy this year in terms of growth - 22nd March
 * the prevailing gloom, we can look for signs of economic light'' - Our public finances are going to be bad beyond belief, but our economy might do somewhat less badly than the latest dire official forecasts suggest - 20th March
 * how will we fund our universities?'' - University fees are third-rail stuff: touch them and you get a horrible shock - 18th March
 * strokes for different folks - the only conclusion for the summit'' - There is an inevitable presumption that international meetings matter on the grounds it is better to coordinate economic policies, but in this case it would probably be better if the different countries followed different policies - 15th March
 * still has some cards to play in the global struggle for skills'' - We have the only universities that are effective competitors against America's - 15th March
 * the G20 leaders must decide whether to co-operate or compete'' - Don't expect anything inspiring from the Group of 20 meeting in London on 2 April and you won't be disappointed - 13th March
 * still has some cards to play in the global struggle for skills'' - Where will the jobs be when the economy recovers? - 11th March
 * global cash boosts will work, eventually, but beware flying bricks'' - Another week, another cut in interest rates. There won't be many more of those now, with official rates at a mere 0.5 per cent. So the story has shifted to "quantitative easing", such a bizarre expression that it is generally translated as "printing money" - 8th March
 * measures that leave us all with a mess to clear up'' - Because the Bank has never done this before, which ought to make us all feel uneasy, we don't know what will happen - 6th March
 * sudden destruction of wealth'' - It could be a decade before the wealth that has been lost has been rebuilt - 4th March
 * of realism. America assumes a lot in its road map to recovery'' - The US economy is in an even worse state than we thought. The response to the stimulus plan signed off last week by President Obama was pretty negative, and the plight of the big US banks remains as dire as ever - 1st March
 * chaos poses a new challenge to the EU'' - When Western Europe sneezes, eastern Europe catches a cold, to borrow from Prince Metternich's observation about the importance of Paris in the middle of the 19th century. Well, it certainly has now - 28th February
 * the state of banks, there are still months of pain ahead'' - The speed of the collapse of global trade is both astounding and troubling. It also suggests that the shape of this recession will be different from the profile that seemed probable even a month ago in two respects - 27th February
 * we can't run Royal Mail, let the Dutch try'' - Governments don't want to own businesses, do they? - 25th February
 * is being stress-tested, but it will not break apart easily'' - The euro is only 10 years old, and it is so central to the European ideal that it can be held together for some time yet - 23rd February
 * downright pessimism might just be seen as a sign of hope'' - It was another of those weeks. Three-quarters of the news was about as bad as it could be, but at this stage of the cycle you would expect that. The other quarter was more interesting - 22nd February
 * chickens have come home to roost for our public finances'' - It is the moment of truth. Tax revenues have collapsed, creating a catastrophe for this Government and a disaster for the next one - 20th February
 * services provide our salvation?'' - The UK could end up with less loss of output than Germany or Japan - 18th February
 * return to seeing thrift as a virtue means banks will play a smaller role'' - 15th February
 * prices should bounce this year – but beware more falls after that'' - If the Bank of England is right and the economy bottoms out around the middle of this year, then the markets ought to start anticipating this pretty soon - 13th February
 * must get the blame game out of the way and move on'' - It would be astounding if the fall in UK output were anything like as bad as in the 1930s - 11th February
 * we're out of rate ammo, we just have to watch and wait'' - So that's that. The Bank of England has put paid to any suggestions that it is "behind the curve" as far as interest rates are concerned - 6th February
 * despair – technology still has the power to save the world'' - Harsher times may actually speed up the application of new technologies - 4th February
 * the long view from the mountain'' - The point of a summit like Davos is to make people focus on the long term - 28th January
 * public finances can only be rescued by an early return to growth'' - The "Iceland-on-Thames" taunt about the state of UK Inc may be ridiculous, but the foreign exchanges evidently don't think so - 23rd January
 * world hangs on a US renaissance'' - America can still pump out the great ideas for its corporations to exploit - 21st January
 * will be no comfort for investors, but this bailout will succeed'' - Market capitalism dishes out its rewards and its punishments and this is the time for the cane - 20th January
 * Heathrow problem could be solved with a few minor tweaks'' - So Heathrow is to get a third runway ... oh, no it's not. Whatever the arguments in favour and notwithstanding the Government's decision last week, it is not going to happen - 18th January
 * of green shoots in the economy is silly, but not in the financial world'' - the acute phase of the banking crisis is surely over, so while "green shoots" is the wrong expression, one of the conditions for a resumption of growth, a functioning world financial system, is beginning to take shape - 16th January
 * mobility requires more than breaking down barriers'' - What can we do about inequality - 14th January



Articles: 2008
- Thursday 6th March, 2008
 * at least clarifies choices'' - People are not buying cars. Food sales, on the other hand, have held up well - 24th December 2008
 * the traditional policies don't work, unconventional ones carry risks too'' - Welcome to the world of zero interest rates. They are now pretty much there in the United States we will probably get close in the UK some time in the new year - 19th December 2008
 * Government should remember Leyland – and beware'' - If the Government is prepared to rescue Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds HBOS, why should it not also help Jaguar and Land Rover? There is a simple answer and a more subtle one - 19th December 2008
 * now back to Victorian values'' - The 19th century constructed not just a regulatory financial code but a moral one - 17th December 2008
 * will recover – but later than the Bank predicts'' - 12th December 2008
 * idleness of debating statistics'' - So should the Government borrow 8 per cent of GDP next year or 6.5 per cent? - 10th December 2008
 * house market still holds the key to the date of the recovery'' - 5th December 2008
 * will take time, but we'll recover'' - If officialdom seems over-optimistic in its forecasts, the markets seem too pessimistic - 3rd December 2008
 * question is how to spend our way out of this global recesssion'' - Which will be more effective at shepherding the world economy through the downturn, fiscal or monetary policy? It has, of course, to be both, but the appropriate balance between the two is becoming a real point of difference between the different countries - 28th November 2008
 * tax may not raise a penny'' - The increase in the headline top tax rate to 45 per cent may actually cut government revenues, not increase them - 26th November 2008
 * the world economy really start to grow next year?'' - The prospect is for a long haul and, if that's right, then our UK policy will prove wrong - 26th November 2008
 * huge debt that takes us back to the 70s'' - It will not be a bundle of fun for the next government – or for us - 25th November 2008
 * does it better ... so the signs are bad if even Germany is in the mire'' - Germany, along with the rest of the eurozone, actually entered recession a little earlier than the US, or indeed the UK - 23rd November 2008
 * dreadful position means a long squeeze on living standards'' - 21st November 2008
 * serve a useful purpose'' - They force our whole society to figure out more effective ways of doing things - 19th November 2008
 * world's authorities must recognise the eastward shift in financial power'' - 'Will people really buy a new car just because they're paying less tax' - 17th November 2008
 * shape of the downturn: will it be a U, a V, or even an L?'' - 21st November 2008
 * taxes, but don't expect miracles'' - The Government can pull all the levers, but there's nothing at the other end - 12th November 2008
 * new President faces huge challenge'' - It is a devastating inheritance for the 44th president of the United States - 5th November 2008
 * we avoid the years of stagnation?'' - There has been virtually no increase in Japanese living standards for 20 years - 29th October 2008
 * must live within its means'' - What kind of recession will the next president of the United States inherit? - 22nd October 2008
 * are things only the state can do'' - It is awesome, isn't it, to see how powerful the world's financial authorities are when they act together? - 15th October 2008
 * will anything shift the economic gloom?'' - Confidence will not suddenly snap back. Trust can only be rebuilt gradually - 11th October 2008
 * bad, but it's no Great Depression'' - The world's monetary authorities are at last really trying to reassert their power over the financial markets - 9th October 2008
 * all the panic, there is some good news'' - The numbers involved are well within the financial capacity of the modern state - 8th October 2008
 * back to the world of tight credit and miserly banks'' - For those who can remember them, it will be like the 1950s and 60s - 1st October 2008
 * Brown blew his big chance'' - The PM is paying the price for sticking to unrealistic spending targets - 24th September 2008
 * silver lining has a cloud and even if shares may be over the worst, our finances aren't'' - 21st September 2008
 * the financial recovery begin'' - So what happens now? There is a lot of attraction in the idea of going back to the old rules - 20th September 2008
 * fall is not all bad news'' - It would be terrible if this were to wreck a fragile world economy. Mercifully that does not look likely - 16th September 2008 (The great Wall St earthquake)
 * start of the long haul back'' - When the hamburger hits the fan, the only force big enough to pick up the pieces is the Federal government - 10th September 2008
 * won't save the housing market – but don't panic'' - An extra billion is irrelevant when the value of our housing stock is falling by roughly £1bn each day - 3rd September 2008
 * takes the high road, sterling takes the low road – and it's time to holiday in Scotland'' - 17th August 2008
 * The Bank of England lurches from over-optimism to undue pessimism- 14th August 2008
 * McRae: What goes up must come down'' - The best way to see the surge in inflation is as a one-off hit to our living standards- 13th August 2008
 * The Western world must be ready to react should the Chinese sprint turn into a Fosbury flop- 3rd August 2008
 * Our main task now is to hold the line against the forces of protectionism  - 31st July 2008
 * Don't despair over house prices - By next summer it's quite plausible that inflation will be coming down, and interest rates should be falling- 30th July 2008
 * Brown can bend the rules all he likes, but he's not the one who'll be left to balance the budget- 20th July 2008
 * We may be close to bottom of bear market but US remains a concern - 17th July 2008
 * I can see the light at the end of this tunnel - 16th July 2008
 * Economic View: Crashes aren't good for us but at least we'll find the floor. And by 2010 we could be looking up - 13th July 2008
 * In 2050 the world will be run by a new middle class – based in Asia - 10th July 2008
 * The G8 countries may run the old world economy. But it's the new one that matters - 9th July 2008
 * By 2020, could the world's richest country be a little closer to home than China and Russia? - 6th July 2008
 * Unlike the 1970s, the world is now able to withstand the oil price shock - 3rd July 2008
 * As the value of our houses plummets, let's embark on some damage limitation - 2nd July 2008
 * It's no barrel of laughs, but as Britain changes its behaviour, could we be insulated from oil shocks? - Sunday 29th June 2008
 * Money is still cheap, but that is a fat lot of use if it is not available - 26th June 2008
 * Don't let the sprinters ruin our Olympics - So how do we stop the London Olympics turning into a disaster? - 25th June 2008
 * Finances are fragile and shocks could happen. But cheer up - at least we're not in the eurozone - 22nd June 2008
 * Happy birthday to the euro – but the real test for the currency lies ahead - 19th June 2008
 * The good news is the downturn won't be too deep – but the bad news is it will last longer - 18th June 2008
 * If banks could stop the bubbles forming, they wouldn't have to be so tough in bursting them - 15th June 2008
 * Our focus is on oil, but Old King Coal is very much alive and kicking - 12th June 2008
 * The days of low interest rates are over - 11th June 2008
 * If the deficit escalates, we can borrow our way out of trouble. But Brown will be in too deep - 8th June 2008
 * This downturn may not be deep, but it could be unusually long - 5th June 2008
 * No-frills democracy: cheap flights help the poor - 4th June 2008
 * From oil to base rates to consumer spending: the signs suggest a long trudge to recovery - 1st June 2008
 * Crude prices may have peaked but developing countries hold the key - 29th May 2008
 * When times are tough, you spend less. Why should it be any different for a government? - 28th May 2008
 * $130 a barrel and rising: it's a Seventies-style shock but this time we won't be held to ransom - 25th May 2008
 * High prices won't stop the world going on growing - 23rd May 2008
 * Markets will fix faltering economy but there will be damage on the way - 22nd May 2008
 * Don't believe everything George Soros says - 21st May 2008
 * Economic View: As he dances around a recession, the Chancellor is losing any room he once had for manoeuvre - 18th May 2008
 * Inflation spike may cause a sustained squeeze on incomes in UK and abroad - Thursday 15th May, 2008
 * We can take it, but it won't be much fun - Wednesday 14th May, 2008
 * China races for growth, India muddles through. But failing to prepare means preparing to win - Sunday 11th May, 2008
 * The dragon awakens: China, how did it happen? - Saturday 10th May, 2008
 * Lower interest rates are no magic bullet, but given time they will work - Thursday 8th May, 2008
 * We will have to beat inflation the hard way - Wednesday 7th May, 2008
 * We feel poorer and resentful about tax, so the election should vanish over the horizon - Sunday 4th May, 2008
 * Convalescence has begun but it will be a slow road back to normality - Thursday 1st May, 2008
 * We will never have cheap oil again - Wednesday 30th April, 2008
 * If Germany offers a window on global financial health, then the view is good - Sunday 27th April, 2008
 * A permanently high oil price might not be a bad thing if it forces conservation - Thursday 24th April, 2008
 * After the £50bn bail-out, how are we placed? - Wednesday 23rd April, 2008
 * Can the Bank's £50bn save the economy? - Tuesday 22nd April, 2008
 * Economic View: With mortgages clogging up the system, a purgative from the Bank is just what the doctor ordered - Sunday 20th April, 2008
 * Next year will be the real problem year for UK plc – not this one - Thursday 17th April, 2008
 * The £40bn question: do we bail out the banks to get the mortgage market moving? - Wednesday 16th April, 2008
 * The numbers are stunning from the emerging nations. That's insult to injury as we lick our self-inflicted wounds - Sunday 13th April, 2008
 * A price boom redistributes wealth destructively - Sunday 13th April, 2008
 * Even amid the gloomy IMF outlook, there are still reasons to be cheerful - Thursday 10th April, 2008
 * It's back to the world of proper saving and borrowing for homes – and the better for it - Wednesday 9th April, 2008
 * Economic View: Equities always get you there in the end, but buy at the wrong time and you might struggle to keep the faith - Sunday 6th April, 2008
 * Housing market shivers but it should not be as bad as the early 1990s - Thursday 3rd April, 2008
 * Has the US averted financial catastrophe? - Wednesday 2nd April, 2008
 * Economic View: There’s no cause for panic when growth defies the gloom-mongers. But we can’t cheat gravity for ever - Sunday 23rd March, 2008
 * After a decade riding high, the pound may have a long way to fall - Thursday 20th March, 2008
 * This is serious. But don't panic, it is no worse than other recent downturns - Wednesday 19th March, 2008
 * Economic View: Budget? What Budget? America is reeling - Sunday 16th March, 2008
 * Mr Darling and his box of tricks - Thursday 13th March, 2008
 * In the face of a downturn, Darling will only make matters worse if he pushes up taxes - Wednesday 12th March, 2008
 * Economic View: The Chancellor's destiny is already set in stone - Sunday 9th March, 2008
 * Boom in Asia means oil price will continue to rise above $100 a barrel
 * The squeeze on public spending has begun - Wednesday 5th March, 2008
 * Economic View: The Scandinavians are sheltered from the storm, while in southern Europe the climate is distinctly inclement - Sunday 2nd March, 2008
 * Don't worry: when the regulators are fretting, things are returning to normal - Thursday 28th February, 2008
 * The Chinese get things done – at a cost - Wednesday 27th February, 2008
 * We've lived in a land of plenty since pioneer wagons rolled across the prairie. Now times are getting leaner - Sunday 24th February, 2008
 * Can London emerge from financial crises with its reputation intact? - Thursday 21st February, 2008
 * The nationalisation of Northern Rock is no big deal (unlike the state of public finances) - Tuesday 19th February, 2008
 * Look beyond the big 'R': the slowdown has a way to go but history shows that shares can take it in their stride - Sunday 17th February, 2008
 * Why is there so little concern from business about the looming downturn? - Thursday 14th February, 2008
 * We must remain a magnet for global talent - Wednesday 13th February, 2008
 * If you think last week was glum, wait for the inflation news and the bills the Government is lining up for us - Sunday 10th February, 2008
 * A downturn will come eventually, but later than most people think - Thursday 7th February, 2008
 * Why governments miss their targets - Wednesday 6th February, 2008
 * Economics View: Down on the street, we're steering clear of the world's stresses. But in Whitehall, there's no room for manoeuvre - Sunday 3rd February, 2008
 * Bank must reshape its role to ensure monetary and fiscal policy are in tune - Thursday 31st January, 2008
 * The swagger has gone, but what comes next? - Wednesday 30th January, 2008
 * Economic View: 'Disasters' aside, the downturn hasn't changed shape: we're still on course for a soft, not a hard, landing - Sunday 27th January, 2008
 * Consumers can earn their way out of trouble but public debt is the problem - Thursday 24th January, 2008
 * The markets are bad, but don't panic yet - Wednesday 23rd January, 2008
 * Hamish McRae: The financiers are flustered but the businessmen are upbeat, and in Scandinavia they can't stop smiling - Sunday 20th January, 2008
 * Sovereign wealth funds: the power barons who will change our markets - Thursday 17th January, 2008
 * Don't panic! The golden age is not over - Wednesday 16th January, 2008
 * Economic View: China and India are heading for the top of the world but along the way the climb will become treacherous - Sunday 13th January, 2008
 * Don't be arrogant - this is an idea whose time has come - Friday 11th January, 2008
 * Bank and Treasury have little room to manoeuvre as downturn looms - Thursday 10th January, 2008
 * A mild recession could do America good - Wednesday 9th January, 2008
 * Economic View: Maybe we'll scramble through 2008 unscathed. But that doesn't mean we'll be out of the woods in 2009 - Sunday 6th January, 2008
 * India is more important to us than China - Friday 4th January, 2008

